Lower Stratospheric Temps Above Antarctic/Southern Ocean 30C (55F) Over Normal; Same Thing Happened Pre-Black Summer

A rare rise in stratospheric temperatures over Antarctica could influence weather into summer, with previous events driving hotter and drier conditions for south-east Australia. The phenomenon – called sudden stratospheric warming – is extremely unusual in the southern hemisphere.

There have only been three moderate to major events in the past 45 years – in 1988, 2002 and 2019 – a Bureau of Meteorology spokesperson said, with the latter contributing to a worsening of the black summer bushfires.

In early September this year, air temperatures 30km above the Southern Ocean and Antarctica began to climb, and are now sitting about 30C warmer than average, according to Dr Martin Jucker, a senior lecturer in atmospheric science at the University of New South Wales.

EDIT

According to the bureau, weather changes associated with past stratospheric warming events have had their strongest effects in New South Wales and southern Queensland, with increased springtime temperatures and less rainfall. Ben Domensino from Weatherzone said the sudden stratospheric warming could influence a climate driver called the southern annular mode. This could increase the chance of abnormally hot days in southern Australia and make drier-than-average conditions over eastern Australia more likely.

EDIT

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/sep/26/fears-of-abnormally-hot-days-in-southern-australia-after-sudden-stratospheric-warming-over-antarctica