Trinidad & Tobago's Oil Output "In Freefall"; Deepwater Exploration Pending, But Dutch Disease May Be Terminal

In 1930, Trinidad and Tobago produced more than 40% of the British empire’s oil. By the 1970s, the newly independent republic was producing 278,000 barrels of crude oil a day. For a country of just 1 million people, after the collapse of its sugar and cocoa industries, oil proved to be transformative. Today, with a population of 1.5 million and oil production down to less than 54,000 barrels a day, Trinidad and Tobago is at a crossroads. The country’s only petroleum refinery closed in 2018 due to mismanagement and declining production by the state-owned Petrotrin company. A recent analysis noted that the energy revenues plummeted 48.4% to $14.7bn (£10.9bn) in the last fiscal year, while non-energy revenues grew by 26% to $32.7bn.

With crude oil production declining since the 2000s (while gas increased, then sharply decreased), the country faces a standoff. Environmentalists are calling for a greener economy, while the new government, like its predecessors, pushes for more deepwater exploration. “We have fallen victim to ‘Dutch disease’ – a dependence on one single sector – which has defined who we are from an economic and social perspective,” says Indera Sagewan, an economist and director of the Caribbean Centre for Competitiveness. “Non-energy economic diversification is imperative as the way forward for Trinidad and Tobago. We are living a defining moment.”

Unlike other oil-dependent states, such as Norway, the UAE and Qatar, Trinidad and Tobago has failed to maximise the benefits of the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund, which was established in 2007 to invest surplus revenues as a means of consolidating the legacy of oil wealth.

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From the first oil well drilled in the 19th century to the discovery of offshore gas fields in the 1990s, fossil fuels have been Trinidad and Tobago’s economic lifeblood, bringing infrastructure and wealth far beyond Caribbean neighbours. The oil money transformed lives for the better in many ways: free university education, extensive public-sector employment, subsidised electricity, gas and water that were among the cheapest utilities in the world, and petrol prices at a third of UK levels. A thriving middle class and a wealthy elite emerged; highways, hospitals and airports were built. But wealth also fuelled corruption, inequality and violent crime. The country remains heavily dependent on oil, while drilling and spills threaten the fragile ecosystems. Now, experts question how close Trinidad and Tobago is to a crunch point. A 2019 report by a US consultancy estimated there were 10 years of gas reserves left.

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https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/sep/19/trinidad-tobago-economy-oil-gas-fossil-fuels-climate-green-transition

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https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/sep/19/trinidad-tobago-economy-oil-gas-fossil-fuels-climate-green-transition