Top Industry Analyst: Fires, Floods, Record Heat Herald "The Beginning Of The Age Of Non-Tourism"

t was a prediction nobody wanted to hear. On the main stage of the world’s biggest tourism fair, Stefan Gössling, a leading researcher in sustainable transport, had just calmly announced the looming death of the holiday industry. “We have already entered the beginning of the age of non-tourism,” said Gössling, to an uneasy audience of travel agencies, car rental companies, cruise operators and hoteliers.

That prophecy may sound fanciful to holidaymakers in Europe and North America who have been jetting off this summer – as well as to industry executives delighted to see international tourism return to pre-pandemic highs last year – but Gössling argues that as carbon pollution stokes heatwaves, fuels wildfires and ruins harvests, the cost of foreign travel will soar, and fewer people will be able to afford it.

“Eighty years ago, mass tourism started in Europe,” said Gössling, a professor at the business and economics school at Linnaeus University in Sweden, who has consulted for the UN and the World Bank. “Eighty years from now, I’m doubtful there will be much tourism left in the world.” Gössling is not short of examples of destinations already feeling the squeeze. Warm weather is melting snow that keeps Alpine ski resorts alive. Coastal erosion is stripping sand from southern European beaches. Droughts are forcing Spanish hotels to ship in fresh water as swimming pools lie empty, while wildfires are setting scenic Greek islands ablaze.

The South Aegean islands in Greece, which include the tourist favourites Kos, Rhodes and Mykonos, are the “single most critical” hotspot on the continent, according to a study Gössling co-authored last month combining exposure to climate hazards with dependence on tourism. Next are the Ionian islands, which include Corfu. The financial strain caused by these issues, which travel companies will probably pass on to customers, will be compounded by the rising cost of food – from coffee to chocolate to olive oil – and the increasing need for insurance against extreme weather.

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https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/aug/23/do-heatwaves-wildfires-and-travel-costs-signal-the-end-of-the-holiday-abroad