60 percent of the world’s land area is in a precarious state

15.08.2025 – A new study maps the planetary boundary of “functional biosphere integrity” in spatial detail and over centuries. It finds that 60 percent of global land areas are now already outside the locally defined safe zone, and 38 percent are even in the high-risk zone. The study was led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) together with BOKU University in Vienna and published in the renowned journal One Earth.

…

Europe, Asia and North America particularly affected

Based on the global biosphere model LPJmL, which simulates water, carbon and nitrogen flows on a daily basis at a resolution of half a degree of longitude/latitude, the study provides a detailed inventory for each individual year since the 1600, based on changes in climate and human land use. The research team not only computed, mapped and compared the two indicators for functional integrity of the biosphere, but also evaluated them by conducting a mathematical comparison with other measures from the literature for which “critical thresholds” are known. This resulted in each area being assigned a status based on local tolerance limits of ecosystem change: Safe Operating Space, Zone of Increasing Risk or High Risk Zone.

The model calculation shows that worrying developments began as early as 1600 in the mid- latitudes. By 1900, the proportion of global land area where ecosystem changes went beyond the locally defined safe zone, or were even in the high-risk zone, was 37 and 14 percent respectively, compared to the 60 and 38 percent we see today. Industrialisation was beginning to take its toll; land use affected the state of the Earth system much earlier than climate warming. At present, this biosphere boundary has been transgressed on almost all land surface – primarily in Europe, Asia and North America – that underwent strong land cover conversion, mainly due to agriculture.

PIK Director Rockström: Impetus for international climate policy

“This first world map showing the overshoot of the boundary for functional integrity of the biosphere, depicting both human appropriation of biomass and ecological disruption, is a breakthrough from a scientific perspective, offering a better overall understanding of planetary boundaries,” says Johan Rockström, PIK Director and one of the co-authors of the study. “It also provides an important impetus for the further development of international climate policy. This is because it points to the link between biomass and natural carbon sinks, and how they can contribute to mitigating climate change. Governments must treat it as a single overarching issue: comprehensive biosphere protection together with strong climate action.”