Unions raise wages. Tariffs don't

In 2024, Donald Trump campaigned on the benefits of tariffs for U.S. workers. He claimed that tariffs would boost wages and create good manufacturing jobs by protecting domestic industries from unfair foreign competition. On the face of it, it might seem like tariffs would automatically protect entire industries, increasing profits for employers and wages for workers. But whether employers share the benefits of tariff protection with workers depends on their bargaining power—something very few workers have without a union.

Without unions, tariffs will mostly just lead to higher corporate profits in protected industries. And with the Trump administration waging the worst union busting in recent American history (McNicholas et al. 2025), high tariffs will mean corporate executives and Wall Street shareholders will see the big payday, not workers. Tariffs alone do not increase wages or create good jobs, unless the industries being protected by tariffs have strong unions.

Since returning to office, President Donald Trump has aggressively increased U.S. tariffs on friend and foe alike. While some of these tariffs have been paused1 and others ruled unlawful by U.S. courts (Lynch and Zakrzewski 2025), Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has promised that the Trump administration’s overall approach to broad tariffs is “not going away” (Bacon 2025).

The case against tariffs
By now, there have been many critiques leveled against Trump’s tariffs. They will increase inflation and consumer prices (Peller 2025). They will decrease economic growth and trigger a recession (Burga 2025; Bianco 2025). They open the door to official corruption (Hersh and Bivens 2025). The chaos of tariff increases and reversals roiled the stock market and made it impossible for businesses to plan for the future (Rosen 2025). Tariffs alienate allies needed to strengthen U.S. supply chains (Mui 2025).

https://www.epi.org/publication/unions-raise-wages-tariffs-dont-why-trumps-trade-policy-wont-help-u-s-workers/