Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

mahatmakanejeeves

(66,877 posts)
Wed Oct 1, 2025, 07:52 AM 19 hrs ago

Government Shutdown Leaves U.S. Treasury Operations Intact

Government Shutdown Leaves U.S. Treasury Operations Intact

Updated Oct. 1, 2025 at 5:12 am ET

0906 GMT – U.S. Treasury operations remain unaffected by the government shutdown as the debate isn’t linked to the debt ceiling this time, says Julius Baer’s Dario Messi in a note. “As such, unless prolonged, the event is politically highly sensitive but unlikely to disrupt bond markets by itself significantly,” the head of fixed income says. Initial market reactions are also muted. Historically, short-lived shutdowns have had minimal economic impact, Messi say. The 10-year Treasury yield rises 0.6 basis points to 4.515%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
6 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies

progree

(12,381 posts)
3. 10 Year Treasury yield 4.515% ? That would be horrible for those of us with significant (to us) bond portfolios
Wed Oct 1, 2025, 08:37 AM
18 hrs ago
Initial market reactions are also muted. Historically, short-lived shutdowns have had minimal economic impact, Messi say. The 10-year Treasury yield rises 0.6 basis points to 4.515%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)


Maybe I don't understand what they are yammering about. Yahoo Finance right now has 4.15%.

One basis point is 0.01%. So 0.6 basis points is 0.006%, IOW nothing.

I couldn't find anything on Tradeweb but I didn't look real hard.

Rising bond yields means lower bond values/prices.

The overwhelming consensus of financial planners and financial pundits is to have a substantial allocation to bonds (and other fixed income) in a mixed stock-fixed income portfolio, especially for those near, or in retirement, and maintain that allocation no matter what the market does or what one thinks it will do. Bonds have done horribly since 2021. The last I checked, their cumulative total returns over the last 4 years were generally single-digit positive, but far from keeping up with inflation (more than 20% cumulatively).

While it's nice that new bonds that we may buy have higher interest rates, those of us with substantial bond portfolios see those portfolios sink in inflation-adjusted value (purchasing power) as intermediate-term and longer-term interest rates rise.

doc03

(38,452 posts)
4. I am glad I dumped all my I Bonds when Trump took office. I was worried Musk would
Wed Oct 1, 2025, 08:49 AM
18 hrs ago

empty my account before I could get out.

progree

(12,381 posts)
5. There are certainly several fixed-income investments that are better than I-bonds, so I can't disagree with selling
Wed Oct 1, 2025, 09:06 AM
17 hrs ago

I-bonds.

I don't have much in Treasuries and nothing in Treasury-related bond funds, though some of my bond funds do have some govt. stuff in it.

I mostly track the 10 year Treasury as an easily accessible and widely followed benchmark for intermediate term bonds. And because some things like mortgage rates closely follow the 10 year Treasury yield.

I do have some I-bonds but not enough to worry about compared to other areas that need more attention.

doc03

(38,452 posts)
6. I bonds were good for a few years, but they were only paying in the 2% range when I sold them
Wed Oct 1, 2025, 09:32 AM
17 hrs ago

I don't understand how they figure the fixed rate, today they pay almost 4% for new purchases but
the ones I had were zero fixed rate so now they would only pay around 3%. I get better than that with bank CDs
and a MM fund.

Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Economy»Government Shutdown Leave...