Pennsylvania

RandySF

(81,151 posts) Tue Dec 23, 2025, 05:53 PM Dec 23

Key Pennsylvania races to watch in 2026

Josh Shapiro v. Stacy Garrity
After defeating State Sen. Doug Mastriano by 15 points in 2022, Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is looking to run it back against Republican Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity in 2026.

The Big Four
Democrats, nationally, are looking at four key congressional races in Pennsylvania in an effort to retake the US House during the midterm elections.

Expanding the Pennsylvania House Majority
After taking the Pennsylvania House for the first time in over a decade in 2022, Democrats successfully defended their one-seat majority in 2024.

Flipping the Pennsylvania Senate?
Flipping the Pennsylvania Senate and securing a legislative trifecta may be a longshot for Democrats in 2026.

https://keystonenewsroom.com/2025/12/23/key-pennsylvania-races-to-watch-in-2026/

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Key Pennsylvania races to watch in 2026 (Original Post) RandySF Dec 23 OP

Shapiro is a popular governor because he makes gov't work Deminpenn Saturday #1

Deminpenn

(17,297 posts)

1. Shapiro is a popular governor because he makes gov't work

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jan 3, 2026, 06:30 AM

Saturday

for Pennsylvanians. Garrity still has to navigate an R primary where one of her opponents could be Mastriano who has indicated he wants to run again.

McKenzie and Bresnahan won close elections and benefitted from Trump being on the ballot. I expect both CD7 and CD10 to flip back. It's noteworthy that these were two of the 4 Rs who signed on to the Dem discharge petition to extend the ACA subsidies. The 3rd was Brian Fitzpatrick of CD1, who hasn't really had to sweat his re-elections despite CD1 being consistently targeted by Dems. Signing on to the peitition shows Fitzpatrick is seriously worried about his own re-election this year.

The current maps for state house reps are pretty fairly drawn. I'm not really sure there any true pick up opportunities for either party. If there are competitive HDs, my guess is that they'd be in Lancaster, Dauphin, Centre or possibly York county.

Rs used to have a supermajority in the state senate, 34-16. IIRC, the blue wave of 2018 produced a pick up of 6 seats for Dems. A special election last year resulted in a surprise pick up, reducing the R advantage to 27-23. I believe only half of the state senate seats are up for re-election in 2026. I'd be truly shocked of Ds flipped the state senate.

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