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BumRushDaShow

(163,346 posts)
Mon Nov 3, 2025, 04:10 AM Nov 3

Bessent says high US interest rates may have caused housing recession

Source: Reuters

November 2, 2025 4:35 PM EST Updated 11 hours ago


Nov 2 (Reuters) - Parts of the U.S. economy, particularly housing, may already be in recession because of high interest rates, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday, repeating his call for the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts.

"I think that we are in good shape, but I think that there are sectors of the economy that are in recession," Bessent said on CNN's "State of the Union" program. "And the Fed has caused a lot of distributional problems with their policies."

Bessent said that, although the overall U.S. economy remains solid, high mortgage rates still hinder the real estate market. Housing, he said, is effectively in a recession that is hitting low-end consumers the hardest because they have debts, not assets. Pending home sales in the United States were flat in September, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The treasury secretary characterized the overall economic environment as in a transition period. Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week signaled that the central bank may not cut rates further at its December meeting, prompting sharp criticism from Bessent and other Trump administration officials.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/business/bessent-says-high-us-interest-rates-may-have-caused-housing-recession-2025-11-02/

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Puppyjive

(889 posts)
1. This guy is an idiot....
Mon Nov 3, 2025, 05:38 AM
Nov 3

You can lower the interest rate to zero. A first time home buyer still cannot afford to pay $400,000.00 for a starter home.

William Seger

(12,049 posts)
4. Exactly right
Mon Nov 3, 2025, 09:19 AM
Nov 3

... but I don't know if Bessent is an idiot or a lapdog — I no longer even attempt to separate the lies from the delusions, ignorance, and stupidity of #rump and his supporters.

Jimi du Ranty

(31 posts)
2. Home prices here have more than doubled since 2016.
Mon Nov 3, 2025, 05:47 AM
Nov 3

The minimum wage? Not so much.
Working people can't afford to rent an apartment.

These rich Trump cabinet members should face the other way during interviews, because they are just blowing smoke.

progree

(12,548 posts)
5. I did a little research, and the 30 year fixed mortgage rate has hardly budged since the Fed began cutting rates
Mon Nov 3, 2025, 10:46 AM
Nov 3

Last edited Mon Nov 3, 2025, 03:18 PM - Edit history (1)

The Fed first cut its target rate from its highs of the inflation era on 9/18/24. It was a half point cut from 5.5% to 5.0% (the upper bound of the quarter-point target range) . It is now 4.00% (again the upper bound), after the October 29 rate cut. So it's gone down by 1.50 percentage points, from 5.5% to 4.00%

Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year rate on 9/15/24 was 6.17% to 6.32%, depending on the source. It is now 6.19%

The 10-year Treasury yield on 9/15/24 was 4.57%, it is now 4.10%. (it is often written that the 30-year mortgage rate and the Treasury 10-year yield are highly correlated).

There were periods after Fed rate cuts when long term rates increased, much remarked upon by the financial press - the reason being that bond traders feared the Fed rate cuts would increase economic activity enough to trigger more inflation down the road, thus propelling longer-term interest rates up. But overall, there's been a bit of a decrease in longer-term rates since the Fed began its rate cuts. Only a bit.

It's not clear what will happen to long-term rates when/if Fed rates are lowered more, despite the bally-hooing of Fed rate cuts by tRump and Besserk.

Inflation is increasing, despite the corporate media blathering about how September came in below expectations, and even (Yahoo Finance) that inflation is "tame" --

Over the last 3 months, both the CPI and the Core CPI have averaged 3.6% inflation at an annualized rate, 1.8 X the Fed's 2% goal.


Tame?

More graphs: See graphs at https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143552691#post10

Over 20 years, a 3.6% average annual inflation rate would cut the purchasing power of the dollar in half, meaning one's investments would have to double in order to just stay in place as far as purchasing power, as prices would double.

Edit - Egg-faced correction: at 3:00 PM ET I corrected the Fed rate from 4.25% to 4.00%. Also adding the Goolsbee article below

Fed's Goolsbee, Cook, Daly join growing chorus of officials undecided on December rate cut Yahoo Finance, 11/3/25 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-goolsbee-cook-daly-join-growing-chorus-of-officials-undecided-on-december-rate-cut-174850474.html
Chicago Federal Reserve president Austan Goolsbee said he is undecided about whether to cut interest rates again in December.

. . . noting that core inflation over the past three months has been running at 3.6% on an annualized basis, ... "That's worrying because that's going the wrong way,"


So, it's not just me that looks at the 3-month average. Fed chair Powell also mentioned the 3-months and 6-month averages being elevated back in December or thereabouts.

Raftergirl

(1,759 posts)
7. Obviously antidotal, and specific to my town, but houses are being snapped up in days of going on the market,
Mon Nov 3, 2025, 01:14 PM
Nov 3

and for well over ask. A lot of young families are moving in. It’s all about the school district. I could sell my house in a minute, but I’m sitting on a 2.375% mortgage rate and my mortgage is $800/ month. We have hundreds of thousands dollars of equity and I certainly don’t want to waste it on a house not nearly as nice as mine. We also are in a ranch and can age in place, so no need to downsize.

There is very little available land to build new housing here (a new street goes in every so often, with maybe a dozen houses) or on a double lot that owners sold, so existing stock is basically what is selling.

As soon as houses are closed on, I see dumpsters in the driveway and remodeling beginning.

This is in an upper middle class suburb.

Vinca

(53,027 posts)
8. I always blamed the housing prices in our area on something we saw during Covid. I live in a very blue
Mon Nov 3, 2025, 01:28 PM
Nov 3

area of NH, right next to Vermont. The upscale homes, especially near ski areas, have always sold for a ton of money. Celebrities have second homes - sometimes first homes - around here. During Covid, the monied moved from the densely populated cities to our rural hills. They quickly bought up all the homes they might normally buy, then started in on the homes the rest of us usually can afford. Then the bidding wars began. A house would go on the market and sell in a couple of days for a small fortune over asking. Cash sales became the norm. Average people were being left out in the cold and most couldn't afford to pay cash for anything under the best of circumstances. It went on like that for a long time after the Covid lockdown ended and it has only recently started coming back down ever so slightly. Still, it's far from being in line with what people earn and can afford.

Raftergirl

(1,759 posts)
9. I know a family that bought a huge spread in Vermont during the lockdown. They moved from Manhattan. The husband
Mon Nov 3, 2025, 02:18 PM
Nov 3

works for McKensey and only need was to be somewhat near an airport. She went to Dartmouth so is used to rural-ness of Vermont.

Vinca

(53,027 posts)
10. I know I recognized the name of one buyer I heard about as someone I'd seen on MSNBC. Also, during that time,
Mon Nov 3, 2025, 02:30 PM
Nov 3

I heard about a celebrity who had bought something north of us who had been in the antique shop where I sold things. It's nice to live in such a desirable area - it's beautiful and the people are very nice - but the days are gone when mom worked at the handbag factory and dad worked at the printing press and the kids grew up in a home the parents owned and didn't rent.

Raftergirl

(1,759 posts)
11. My mom's cousin owned a shoe manufacturer that was located in southern NH. Very successful for decades.
Mon Nov 3, 2025, 02:43 PM
Nov 3

Of course, they didn’t live in NH, but in Marblehead.

I used to get shoes and boots free. They had a showroom in NYC and I’d just pick out what I wanted and they’d send them to me.

Vinca

(53,027 posts)
12. Manufacturing shoes was a big thing in our area until suddenly everything was outsourced to China. Too bad really.
Mon Nov 3, 2025, 03:16 PM
Nov 3

The quality of the products made here was so much better than the mass-produced stuff.

progree

(12,548 posts)
13. Fed's Goolsbee, Cook, Daly join growing chorus of officials undecided on December rate cut Yahoo Finance, 11/3/25
Mon Nov 3, 2025, 03:22 PM
Nov 3
Fed's Goolsbee, Cook, Daly join growing chorus of officials undecided on December rate cut Yahoo Finance, 11/3/25 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-goolsbee-cook-daly-join-growing-chorus-of-officials-undecided-on-december-rate-cut-174850474.html
Chicago Federal Reserve president Austan Goolsbee said he is undecided about whether to cut interest rates again in December.

. . . noting that core inflation over the past three months has been running at 3.6% on an annualized basis, ... "That's worrying because that's going the wrong way,"


So, it's not just me that looks at the 3-month average. Fed chair Powell also mentioned the 3-months and 6-month averages being elevated back in December or thereabouts.
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