Jobless claims tumble to 218,000, well below estimate despite fears of labor market weakness
Source: CNBC
Published Thu, Sep 25 2025 8:32 AM EDT Updated 5 Min Ago
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were well below expectations last week, helping to douse caution at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere that the labor market is in danger.
First-time filings for the week ended Sept. 20 totaled a seasonally adjusted 218,000, down 14,000 from the prior weeks upwardly revised figure and significantly less than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 235,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, were little changed, falling 2,000 to 1.926 million.
The release comes just a week after the Federal Reserve voted to lower its benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4%-4.25%.
In its post-meeting statement released Sept. 17, the Federal Open Market Committee said that part of the reasoning for the easing, the first in 2025, was that downside risks to employment have risen. Indeed, nonfarm payrolls growth has slowed to a crawl and the level of job openings is at a multiyear low.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/25/jobless-claims-tumble-to-218000-well-below-estimate-despite-fears-of-labor-market-weakness.html
Article updated.
Previous articles -
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were well below expectations last week, helping to douse caution at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere that the labor market is in danger.
First-time filings for the week ending Sept. 20 totaled a seasonally adjusted 218,000, down 14,000 from the prior week's upwardly revised figure and significantly less than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 235,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, were little changed, falling 2,000 to 1.926 million.
The release comes just a week after the Federal Reserve voted to lower its benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4%-4.25%.
In its post-meeting statement released Sept. 17, the Federal Open Market Committee said that part of the reasoning for the easing, the first in 2026, was that "downside risks to employment have risen." Indeed, nonfarm payrolls growth has slowed to a crawl and the level of job openings is at a multi-year low.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were well below expectations last week, helping to douse caution at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere that the labor market is in danger.
First-time filings for the week ending Sept. 20 totaled a seasonally adjusted 218,000, down 14,000 from the prior week's upwardly revised figure and significantly less than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 235,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
Continuing claims, which run a week behind, were little changed, falling 2,000 to 1.926 million.
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Original article -
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were expected to total 235,000 for the week ending Sept. 20, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.
This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

Bernardo de La Paz
(58,798 posts)UpInArms
(53,436 posts)that should piss TFG off ketchups gone fly
IronLionZion
(49,958 posts)Sick of winning yet?
What's it going to take for Americans to realize Republicans are consistently bad for the economy going back decades?
They are planning mass firings with the government shutdown so that should add to the numbers next month.
rzemanfl
(30,828 posts)numbers from the regime?
hadEnuf
(3,409 posts)Trump has fired people until he gets the right toady to report the numbers he wants.
Everything coming out of the government that Trump or his MAGATs have touched is completely suspect.
wolfie001
(6,218 posts)He seems to think these numbers are 100% honest and I'm thinking the opposite. tRUMP has his tiny hands in everything.
Wiz Imp
(7,501 posts)These numbers are real
Wiz Imp
(7,501 posts)They are actual counts reported by each state. The national numbers are determined simply by aggregating all the state numbers. Most states publish their claims numbers online. You can go to each state's website to find their numbers and aggregate them together yourself.
You can see the complete numbers including each state here:
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
Note: these numbers are reported by ETA, not BLS. Both are interdependent agencies within USDOL.
rzemanfl
(30,828 posts)I'm certain Florida fudges its numbers and Rick Scott fucked up the system so bad that many people gave up trying to claim benefits.
Wiz Imp
(7,501 posts)This is one set of numbers that can't be fudged.
One perfectly legitimate reason for claims to be down is that fewer seasonal workers were hired for the summer season (which is almost certainly true due to the many negative impacts Trump inflicted on the economy). Now that we're at the end of that summer season, there are far fewer workers leaving their summer jobs, meaning there are far fewer people than normal filing unemployment claims.
A knee jerk reaction to say all the data is fake is stupid. There would be nothing to be gained really by faking these numbers. Not to mention, that if they were faking numbers, they'd make them look good. These numbers aren't particularly good. USDOL always publishes a 4-week moving average, because it's more representative of what's going on due to the volatility of the weekly numbers. The 4 week moving average has remained flat.
Polybius
(20,910 posts)
TexasBushwhacker
(21,019 posts)They don't count people who were already job hunting or people who have had to settle for part time or temp work.
Wiz Imp
(7,501 posts)One perfectly legitimate reason for initial claims to be down is that fewer seasonal workers were hired for the summer season (which is almost certainly true due to the many negative impacts Trump inflicted on the economy). Now that we're at the end of that summer season, there are far fewer workers leaving their summer jobs, meaning there are far fewer people than normal filing unemployment claims.
Ritabert
(1,668 posts)Wiz Imp
(7,501 posts)they are real
progree
(12,362 posts)Less than half of workers are covered by the unemployment insurance system. In addition, unemployment insurance lasts only so long. Unemployment can last a lifetime.
https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm
In addition, the insured unemployed exclude the following:
- Unemployed workers who have exhausted their benefits.
- Unemployed workers who have not yet earned benefit rights (such as new entrants or reentrants to the labor force).
- Disqualified workers whose unemployment is considered to have resulted from their own actions rather than from economic conditions; for example, a worker fired for misconduct on the job.
- Otherwise eligible unemployed persons who do not file for benefits.
Indeed, over the past decade, only about one-third of the total unemployed, on average, received regular UI benefits.
What we have is a low-hire, low-fire job market.
So no, this is not a good reason to change interest rates.
Here is the full unemployment insurance claims report -- it's interesting to look at the graphs
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
Wiz Imp
(7,501 posts)But your one statement is incorrect.
You say "Less than half of workers are covered by the unemployment insurance system.". That should say 'Less than half of unemployed workers at any point in time are receiving unemployment benefits'. About 95% of all workers are covered by the unemployment insurance system.
March is the most recent month for which covered employment is available.
March Covered employment = 154,523,800
March Total Employment = 163,412,000
lees1975
(6,773 posts)Because we would be stupid to think these are real figures.
Wiz Imp
(7,501 posts)They are real
relayerbob
(7,278 posts)That's what the Admin said, so who can doubt it.
Wiz Imp
(7,501 posts)niyad
(127,503 posts)Wiz Imp
(7,501 posts)IbogaProject
(5,032 posts)This isn't necessarially good news.
Buddyzbuddy
(1,549 posts)I have a hard time believing the money movers have allowed the Felon to influence a system that has worked this long without serious pushback. I suspect there will be a price to pay in the next 2 years. Both from the actual system and the confidence in our current system. Financial leaders should have stayed the course.
truthisfreedom
(23,479 posts)Trumps underlings are useless liars, just like him.