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BumRushDaShow

(160,717 posts)
Thu Sep 25, 2025, 08:36 AM Thursday

Jobless claims tumble to 218,000, well below estimate despite fears of labor market weakness

Source: CNBC

Published Thu, Sep 25 2025 8:32 AM EDT Updated 5 Min Ago


Initial claims for unemployment insurance were well below expectations last week, helping to douse caution at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere that the labor market is in danger.

First-time filings for the week ended Sept. 20 totaled a seasonally adjusted 218,000, down 14,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised figure and significantly less than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 235,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, were little changed, falling 2,000 to 1.926 million.

The release comes just a week after the Federal Reserve voted to lower its benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4%-4.25%.

In its post-meeting statement released Sept. 17, the Federal Open Market Committee said that part of the reasoning for the easing, the first in 2025, was that “downside risks to employment have risen.” Indeed, nonfarm payrolls growth has slowed to a crawl and the level of job openings is at a multiyear low.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/25/jobless-claims-tumble-to-218000-well-below-estimate-despite-fears-of-labor-market-weakness.html



Article updated.

Previous articles -

Published Thu, Sep 25 2025 8:32 AM EDT Updated 4 Min Ago


Initial claims for unemployment insurance were well below expectations last week, helping to douse caution at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere that the labor market is in danger.

First-time filings for the week ending Sept. 20 totaled a seasonally adjusted 218,000, down 14,000 from the prior week's upwardly revised figure and significantly less than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 235,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, were little changed, falling 2,000 to 1.926 million.

The release comes just a week after the Federal Reserve voted to lower its benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4%-4.25%.

In its post-meeting statement released Sept. 17, the Federal Open Market Committee said that part of the reasoning for the easing, the first in 2026, was that "downside risks to employment have risen." Indeed, nonfarm payrolls growth has slowed to a crawl and the level of job openings is at a multi-year low.



Published Thu, Sep 25 2025 8:32 AM EDT Updated 4 Min Ago


Initial claims for unemployment insurance were well below expectations last week, helping to douse caution at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere that the labor market is in danger.

First-time filings for the week ending Sept. 20 totaled a seasonally adjusted 218,000, down 14,000 from the prior week's upwardly revised figure and significantly less than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 235,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Continuing claims, which run a week behind, were little changed, falling 2,000 to 1.926 million.


This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.



Original article -

Published Thu, Sep 25 2025 8:32 AM EDT


Initial claims for unemployment insurance were expected to total 235,000 for the week ending Sept. 20, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.


This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.
28 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Jobless claims tumble to 218,000, well below estimate despite fears of labor market weakness (Original Post) BumRushDaShow Thursday OP
KKR guy just said that without deportations & scares, unemployment would be around 5 percent. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Thursday #1
Looks like all the reasons for more rates cuts is gone UpInArms Thursday #2
Are we great enough yet? IronLionZion Thursday #3
Why should we believe these rzemanfl Thursday #4
We shouldn't. They are most likely BS. hadEnuf Thursday #5
That Canadian guy is gonna respond I'm sure wolfie001 Thursday #9
see post #10 Wiz Imp Thursday #13
The Unemployment Claims numbers are not calculated by the Federal Government Wiz Imp Thursday #10
I don't trust their math and won't/can't do it myself because some states don't report. rzemanfl Thursday #21
Trust me. The data is accurate. Wiz Imp Thursday #22
Not everything is a conspiracy Polybius Friday #25
Thanks wolfie001 Friday #23
Well, these numbers are for NEW CLAIMS TexasBushwhacker Friday #26
Correct. Wiz Imp Friday #27
Any statistics coming from this crowd are not believable Ritabert Thursday #6
see post #10 Wiz Imp Thursday #11
Unemployment claims are not the same as unemployment rate, or even a good proxy for progree Thursday #7
Your point is 100% correct Wiz Imp Thursday #17
Are we at the point of actually believing any economic data that comes out of the Trump administration? lees1975 Thursday #8
see post #10 Wiz Imp Thursday #12
I heard a cow flew over the moon last week, too relayerbob Thursday #14
see post #10 Wiz Imp Thursday #18
Suuuuuure. I believe whatever numbers these lying thugs put out. niyad Thursday #15
see post #10 Wiz Imp Thursday #19
Hiring has been weak so layoffs are lower too IbogaProject Thursday #16
Choose to believe any further reports at your peril. Buddyzbuddy Thursday #20
You can bet that every serious business person reading this news is taking it with an entire pound of salt truthisfreedom Friday #24
I do not believe anything that comes from this regime. sinkingfeeling Friday #28

Bernardo de La Paz

(58,798 posts)
1. KKR guy just said that without deportations & scares, unemployment would be around 5 percent. . . . nt
Thu Sep 25, 2025, 08:42 AM
Thursday

UpInArms

(53,436 posts)
2. Looks like all the reasons for more rates cuts is gone
Thu Sep 25, 2025, 08:46 AM
Thursday

that should piss TFG off … ketchup’s gone fly

IronLionZion

(49,958 posts)
3. Are we great enough yet?
Thu Sep 25, 2025, 08:58 AM
Thursday

Sick of winning yet?

What's it going to take for Americans to realize Republicans are consistently bad for the economy going back decades?

They are planning mass firings with the government shutdown so that should add to the numbers next month.

hadEnuf

(3,409 posts)
5. We shouldn't. They are most likely BS.
Thu Sep 25, 2025, 09:49 AM
Thursday

Trump has fired people until he gets the right toady to report the numbers he wants.

Everything coming out of the government that Trump or his MAGATs have touched is completely suspect.

wolfie001

(6,218 posts)
9. That Canadian guy is gonna respond I'm sure
Thu Sep 25, 2025, 11:53 AM
Thursday

He seems to think these numbers are 100% honest and I'm thinking the opposite. tRUMP has his tiny hands in everything.

Wiz Imp

(7,501 posts)
10. The Unemployment Claims numbers are not calculated by the Federal Government
Thu Sep 25, 2025, 12:09 PM
Thursday

They are actual counts reported by each state. The national numbers are determined simply by aggregating all the state numbers. Most states publish their claims numbers online. You can go to each state's website to find their numbers and aggregate them together yourself.

You can see the complete numbers including each state here:
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Note: these numbers are reported by ETA, not BLS. Both are interdependent agencies within USDOL.

rzemanfl

(30,828 posts)
21. I don't trust their math and won't/can't do it myself because some states don't report.
Thu Sep 25, 2025, 02:05 PM
Thursday

I'm certain Florida fudges its numbers and Rick Scott fucked up the system so bad that many people gave up trying to claim benefits.

Wiz Imp

(7,501 posts)
22. Trust me. The data is accurate.
Thu Sep 25, 2025, 02:44 PM
Thursday

This is one set of numbers that can't be fudged.

One perfectly legitimate reason for claims to be down is that fewer seasonal workers were hired for the summer season (which is almost certainly true due to the many negative impacts Trump inflicted on the economy). Now that we're at the end of that summer season, there are far fewer workers leaving their summer jobs, meaning there are far fewer people than normal filing unemployment claims.

A knee jerk reaction to say all the data is fake is stupid. There would be nothing to be gained really by faking these numbers. Not to mention, that if they were faking numbers, they'd make them look good. These numbers aren't particularly good. USDOL always publishes a 4-week moving average, because it's more representative of what's going on due to the volatility of the weekly numbers. The 4 week moving average has remained flat.

TexasBushwhacker

(21,019 posts)
26. Well, these numbers are for NEW CLAIMS
Fri Sep 26, 2025, 09:06 PM
Friday

They don't count people who were already job hunting or people who have had to settle for part time or temp work.

Wiz Imp

(7,501 posts)
27. Correct.
Fri Sep 26, 2025, 10:04 PM
Friday

One perfectly legitimate reason for initial claims to be down is that fewer seasonal workers were hired for the summer season (which is almost certainly true due to the many negative impacts Trump inflicted on the economy). Now that we're at the end of that summer season, there are far fewer workers leaving their summer jobs, meaning there are far fewer people than normal filing unemployment claims.

progree

(12,362 posts)
7. Unemployment claims are not the same as unemployment rate, or even a good proxy for
Thu Sep 25, 2025, 10:49 AM
Thursday

Less than half of workers are covered by the unemployment insurance system. In addition, unemployment insurance lasts only so long. Unemployment can last a lifetime.

https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

While the UI claims data provide useful information, they are not used to measure total unemployment because they exclude several important groups. To begin with, not all workers are covered by UI programs. For example, self-employed workers, unpaid family workers, workers in certain not-for-profit organizations, and several other small (primarily seasonal) worker categories are not covered.

In addition, the insured unemployed exclude the following:

- Unemployed workers who have exhausted their benefits.

- Unemployed workers who have not yet earned benefit rights (such as new entrants or reentrants to the labor force).

- Disqualified workers whose unemployment is considered to have resulted from their own actions rather than from economic conditions; for example, a worker fired for misconduct on the job.

- Otherwise eligible unemployed persons who do not file for benefits.

Indeed, over the past decade, only about one-third of the total unemployed, on average, received regular UI benefits.


What we have is a low-hire, low-fire job market.

So no, this is not a good reason to change interest rates.

Here is the full unemployment insurance claims report -- it's interesting to look at the graphs

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Wiz Imp

(7,501 posts)
17. Your point is 100% correct
Thu Sep 25, 2025, 12:31 PM
Thursday

But your one statement is incorrect.

You say "Less than half of workers are covered by the unemployment insurance system.". That should say 'Less than half of unemployed workers at any point in time are receiving unemployment benefits'. About 95% of all workers are covered by the unemployment insurance system.

March is the most recent month for which covered employment is available.

March Covered employment = 154,523,800
March Total Employment = 163,412,000

lees1975

(6,773 posts)
8. Are we at the point of actually believing any economic data that comes out of the Trump administration?
Thu Sep 25, 2025, 11:11 AM
Thursday

Because we would be stupid to think these are real figures.

relayerbob

(7,278 posts)
14. I heard a cow flew over the moon last week, too
Thu Sep 25, 2025, 12:17 PM
Thursday

That's what the Admin said, so who can doubt it.

Buddyzbuddy

(1,549 posts)
20. Choose to believe any further reports at your peril.
Thu Sep 25, 2025, 02:03 PM
Thursday

I have a hard time believing the money movers have allowed the Felon to influence a system that has worked this long without serious pushback. I suspect there will be a price to pay in the next 2 years. Both from the actual system and the confidence in our current system. Financial leaders should have stayed the course.

truthisfreedom

(23,479 posts)
24. You can bet that every serious business person reading this news is taking it with an entire pound of salt
Fri Sep 26, 2025, 04:42 PM
Friday

Trump’s underlings are useless liars, just like him.

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