Americans love higher prices and fewer jobs as an indicator of true greatness.

263,000

I have been saying to wait for September numbers, as the government buyouts have around a 6 month payment …

So, we will see where it goes from here

(the fiscal year ends September 30, after which those (illegal) "buyouts" and deferred retirements go into effect).

Do we even know how many people were deferred?

but it has been hard to track because there were firings and then sudden rehirings (but then in some cases, a few came back when that happened), etc.

CNN has one that reported up to July 14, 2025 - https://www.cnn.com/politics/tracking-federal-workforce-firings-dg

re-instate people at the National Weather Service in NW Kansas. Yeah....around Goodland,Ks or a little east where winter weather gets so bad they have to shut down I70 en route to Denver. Musk and Trump had all but decimated those Weather stations of experienced help in one of the worst places to do so.

So the Fed is going to tolerate rising inflation and lower interest rates anyway.

It's going to get really ugly, and with the social safety net largely having been dismantled, things are going to get scary when people get desperate to feed their families.

News report from the source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI data series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
CORE CPI data series: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E

I annualize everything to be comparable to each other and to compare to the Fed's 2% target

They are calculated using the actual index values, not from the rounded off monthly change numbers.

The CPI rise averaged 3.5% over the past 3 months on an annualized basis (core CPI: 3.6%)
The August one month increase annualized is: CPI: 4.7%, (core CPI: 4.2%)

The 12-month average (year-over-year) increase is: CPI: 2.9%, (core CPI: 3.1%)

REGULAR CPI


CORE CPI


Both the CPI and Core CPI 3 month rolling average were hurt when the small May increase dropped out of the 3-month window

The Year - over - year CPI and Core CPI from the OP
So that all the graphs are together


The 12 months averages were hurt by last year's relatively small August 2024 month-over-month increases dropping out of the 12 month window. What drops out of the window is just as important as what enters the 12 month window (which is the latest, August 2025).

Some featured items from the BLS news summary https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Increases in August over July:
Shelter: +0.4%, Energy: +0.7% (was -1.1%), Gasoline: +1.9% (was -2.2%),
Food: 0.5% (was 0.0%) and food at home: +0.6% (was -0.1%),, Food away from home: +0.3% (was +0.3%)
The "was" numbers in ( )'s are July over June
In most of these, it was like the August increase is making up for the July decreases or very small increases

12 month increases:
Energy: +0.2%, Food: +3.2%

Back then, the rolling 3 month average and 1 month were both below 2% on an annualized basis,
and the 12 month average (year-over-year) just a little above 2%

But then it all turned higher in the subsequent months to where we're at now:

The CPI rise averaged 3.5% over the past 3 months on an annualized basis (core CPI: 3.6%)
The August one month increase annualized is: CPI: 4.7%, (core CPI: 4.2%)

The 12-month average (year-over-year) increase is: CPI: 2.9%, (core CPI: 3.1%)

===============================================
I saw a headline at Yahoo Finance that this hot CPI report all but takes a HALF-point rate cut off the table at the Fed's Sept 17 meeting. The CME fedwatch tool now shows a 5.2% likelihood of that (and a 94.8% likelihood of a quarter point rate cut).

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

NT

over the past year or two, knows they are GROSSLY LYING THEIR ASSES OFF. 2.9 % is pure propaganda bullshit........

and the same thing with so many other expenses, like utilities, property taxes, paper products, the list is endless.........

of everything I can think of that has gone up, it was WAY over 2.9% - and the prices KEEP CLIMBING

Started under Reagan's installation in office, but in all reality it was HWBush and his CABAL that began altering all these statics to make Republican look far better than they were actually doing......He doctored how the Consumer Price Index was figured by changing all the metrics of how it had always been figured.....Same with measures of inflation, interest rates, and how un-employment was calculated. All to make them look good.....

Wages stalling, businesses tightening, car prices rising. Fed has no clear options so they will muddle through and bow to political pressure and create more inflation. Prepare for hard times! Gold and silver will rocket just like way back when.