Hoooooly shit, that is an atrocious report.

The real ones are probably large negatives across the board.

Less than 30,000 a month.

I can remember when Joe Biden added 160,000 jobs in 1 month and got absolutely hammered by the corporate media because 250,000 had been expected.

I've been saying it here for years, but Joe Biden's economy was the last time working people will have had a chance to get ahead in my lifetime. That economy is long gone, get ready for a deep recession that devastates the working class.

Last edited Fri Sep 5, 2025, 09:42 AM - Edit history (1)

meaning we have just 1,000 more total nonfarm payroll jobs than were reported August 1. That's progress, I guess.

(June revised down by 27,000, and July revised up by 6,000)

Proof that this month's total non-farm employment is just 1,000 higher than in the August 1 report:

See post#11 and search for
"So compared to the report that came out one month ago "

Revisions will likely take these numbers down even further, if ADP numbers are any indication.

I expect a slight uptick in September's numbers - typically this is the start of seasonal hiring for Christmas - but we'll probably be in net losses after the first of the year as the recession accelerates.

from seasonal hiring, after their seasonal adjustments.

Coming up: a lot of federal workers that have accepted the "deferred resignation" and have been getting paid (and so are counted in the establishment survey) will lose their pay after September 30. But that's after the establishment survey's survey week, so we won't see that drop until the October report (released first Friday of November).

And tourism is way down. There’s going to be a lot less holiday hiring this year.

This was after a loss of 41,000 jobs in July.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/article/statistics-canada-to-release-august-labour-force-survey-today/

only has a a population that is slightly larger than the state of California!

Canada is taking a big hit now, but will recover sooner than the US. One thing I don't understand is why the Toronto Stock Exchange has been zooming for months in record territory outperforming the US market.

of all the business coming there from the trade partners that we pissed off!

Lots of competition, but the net result is that the world is working around the US blockage, isolating US more and greatly reducing its soft power.

Soft power is a concept that mystifies the tRump regime. They don't understand it, so they have written it all off.

Last edited Fri Sep 5, 2025, 08:18 PM - Edit history (2)

And yes, the monthly increases are net gains. The reported nonfarm payroll jobs increases are jobs created and job openings filled minus jobs lost: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143221098#post24

AND SEASONALLY ADJUSTED - pretty much all the numbers you see reported in the media or BLS summary are the seasonally adjusted ones -- that certainly is true of the headline numbers -- nonfarm payroll jobs, unemployment rate -- as well as many others like the labor force participation rate. (I'm tired of seeing comments like the payroll jobs number is high this time because we're getting into the holiday hiring season, or low because we're done with the holiday season, or it's slow in August etc. Seasonal adjustments adjust for these seasonal cycles - that's why they are called seasonal adjustments)

BLS news release summary: https://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

The headline payroll job numbers (+22,000 in AUGUST) come from the Establishment Survey
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
YEAR: JAN FEB MAR etc.
2022: 225 869 471 305 241 461 696 237 227 400 297 126
2023: 444 306 85 216 227 257 148 157 158 186 141 269
2024: 119 222 246 118 193 87 88 71 240 44 261 323
2025: 111 102 120 158 19 -13 79 22
The last 2 months (July and August) are preliminary, subject to revisions
Last 12 months: 122k/month average (27k/month average in last 4 months)

# Employed in thousands (up 288,000 in AUGUST) come from the separate Household Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes (in thousands): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
If one adjusts the date range from 2021 to 2025, the graph is much more meaningful because it leaves out the huge swings of 2020 that greatly enlarges the Y axis and makes what follows look like tiny almost undiscernible squiggles around the zero axis
YEAR: JAN FEB MAR etc.
2022: 1016 483 608 --315 487 --284 164 477 75 --126 --177 752
2023: 958 178 417 162 --178 183 204 292 --33 --231 675 --762
2024: 66 --177 412 70 --331 --9 64 206 377 --346 --273 478
2025: 2234 --588 201 461 --696 93 --260 288
Last 12 months: 164k/month average ( Last 4 months: MINUS 144k/month average)
January and February of each year are affected by changes in population controls.
A very volatile data series from month to month. I used a double minus to make the negative ones stand out a little better
This Household Survey also produces the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate among many other stats

REVISIONS of the prior 2 months of Payroll Jobs: DOWN 21,000, from the BLS news release:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

The August 1 report's total nonfarm payroll employment: 159,539k
. . . https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_08012025.htm -- Table B-1
This (September 5 report's) total nonfarm payroll employment: 159,540k -- a 1k increase
. . . This month's: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_09052025.htm or https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm or https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed. To count as unemployed, one must have actively sought work in the past 4 weeks (just looking at want ads and job postings doesn't count)

and put in someone who will report BIGLY numbers that he likes?

MAGA is creating jobs in a negative downward direction. True greatness comes from becoming unemployed and being paid less. Job creators can find efficiencies through AI. So we need to give big tax cuts to billionaires so they can create jobs for nonhuman bots that will trickle down to the rest of us in imaginary ways.

There is not currently a BLS Commissioner and the commissioner has no involvement in the calculation of the jobs numbers anyway (which is what makes Trump's firing of the commissioner so stupid and outrageous).
it remains to be seen how Trump reacts to this report. Maybe he tries to fire everyone at BLS? Maybe he tries to simply dissolve BLS? The courts would block either action. Maybe he just wait for his new commissioner nominee to be confirmed and leave it up to him? The career staff at BLS will never go along with falsifying the data, so stopping publishing the data seems the most likely course of action.

Though monthly releases are apparently required by statute.

Of course, since when has Trumpism ever been held to statutory requirements?

And Trump hasn't signaled he agreed with stopping the monthly reports yet either. Trump's reaction today should be interesting.

He'll prescribe you to swim in raw sewage and get brain worms

If only more of them had voted for Kamala Harris (those who voted wrong AND those who neglected to vote at all).

We had a good thing going.

by having the proles work their asses off...and slopping up the gop tax cuts for the wealthy

Unless project 2025 is dismantled and made as illegal as nazism.

She also lied and her attempted spin was so weak as to be pathetic.

https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/us-jobs-report-august-2025
Trump’s labor secretary blames Powell for jobs report, says numbers ‘underperformed just a bit’

or just republican economics ?

My poor son, who is graduating in June of next year, is so screwed.

As MSNBC’s Ali Velshi summarized, “Turns out firing the ref doesn’t change the score.”

The question for the White House is simple: “If Trump has created a ‘hot’ economy, why has American job growth slowed to a 16-year low?” www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddo...

— Steve Benen (@stevebenen.com) 2025-09-05T13:07:38.074Z

Tariffs are forcing inflation through the roof. Interest cots don't help that. They make it worse.

And a big part of the slowdown is lack of labor as the immigration policies are terrorizing millions of people who did essential jobs in this country, especially agriculture. We have only begun to see the leading edge effects of these terrible policies. There is nothing in the FED's bag of tricks that can fix what Trump has broken.

Do they mean jobs? What are the units the 22,000 refers to?

These numbers are fudged, and that we lost jobs.