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Bernardo de La Paz

(57,976 posts)
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 03:45 PM Wednesday

Slower hiring, rising prices, wary consumers: Fed's beige book points to sluggish economy

Source: Market Watch via MSN

Businesses were “hesitant to hire” because of weaker sales and uncertainty tied to U.S. trade wars, the Federal Reserve said, but tariffs have only exacerbated inflation by a “moderate or modest amount” so far.

{...}

While the labor market was weaker, the report showed, it was also fairly stable. Businesses focused on using artificial intelligence to take the place of some jobs and reduced headcount by not filling open positions after people quit or retired.

A decline in immigrant labor also contributed to lackluster hiring, the beige book reported. The administration of President Donald Trump has made deporting unauthorized immigrants a point of emphasis.

Inflation rose over the summer, and prices are expected to continue to rise, but the beige book characterized the increase as “moderate to modest.”

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/slower-hiring-rising-prices-wary-consumers-fed-s-beige-book-points-to-sluggish-economy/ar-AA1LOtlc



Link to actual Beige Book document (PDF, 56 pages, HTML also available):
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250903.pdf
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Slower hiring, rising prices, wary consumers: Fed's beige book points to sluggish economy (Original Post) Bernardo de La Paz Wednesday OP
Wary consumers perhaps, but I think it's the tRUMP boycott too. Don't spend lots of money while this piece of trash SWBTATTReg Wednesday #1
I would say instead: conserve cash Bernardo de La Paz Wednesday #3
Seems commodities might be a safe place for cash. multigraincracker Wednesday #6
I would love for you to invest in Canada, and it is a good long-term strategy, but Bernardo de La Paz Wednesday #7
Many of us in Michigan would vote multigraincracker Wednesday #8
Shaping up to be a popsdenver Wednesday #20
Just got back DiverDave Wednesday #2
Doesn't matter lonely bird Wednesday #4
Does matter. Reality matters & crying "fake news" only works until maga daughter-in-law loses her job. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Wednesday #5
Nope lonely bird Wednesday #9
Reality doesn't matter until it smacks them w a 2x4 and then it matters. That was my point in post 5 Bernardo de La Paz Wednesday #10
That is true for the individual directed impacted lonely bird Wednesday #11
If it's isolated. It won't be. Before long there will Covid deaths, high produce prices, a lack of Christmas goods. Bernardo de La Paz Wednesday #12
All of your posts here are good, thanks! SWBTATTReg Wednesday #13
I think things are softer than they are letting on bucolic_frolic Wednesday #14
Cocoa is way up bc of crop conditions. Varnish should be made in US, some brands maybe not. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Wednesday #15
Varnish was identical in both stores, national brand. bucolic_frolic Wednesday #16
US Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows fewer open jobs than job seekers riversedge Wednesday #17
Meat prices (beef in particular) are insane Metaphorical Wednesday #18
My coffee of choice (not gourmet) is up 58%. Buddyzbuddy Wednesday #19
Agreed popsdenver Wednesday #21
I tend to think we'll see the break point in November- GenThePerservering Wednesday #22

SWBTATTReg

(25,641 posts)
1. Wary consumers perhaps, but I think it's the tRUMP boycott too. Don't spend lots of money while this piece of trash
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 03:55 PM
Wednesday

is in office. Keep expenditures as low as possible. Don't provide any aid and comfort to the POS in the WH.

Bernardo de La Paz

(57,976 posts)
3. I would say instead: conserve cash
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 04:09 PM
Wednesday

I think a vague "boycott" will have little or no effect. However, in that vein, targeted or specific or short-duration boycotts would get noticed. Like the way Canadians are boycotting Florida and US booze.

Short-duration boycotts can operate like the massive demonstrations we've seen (which need to be and will get bigger as the economy bites). If 20 to 40 million people don't spend money on a designated Friday and Saturday, it will be noticed.

It's easier to get people to not do something (not spend) than to do something (go out for a few hours to protest), but the latter has been accomplished. It is harder, though, to organize a spending strike (publicity). Boycotts and street protests can both be accomplished; they are not at odds with each other.

Longer duration boycotts are of course even more effective, but much harder to organize. For those, specificity and targeting helps a lot.

But to your point: Save cash, buy fewer assets, sell a few more assets, conserve cash in case we head into a recession. This is a partner to your call for a "tRump boycott". In recessions and depressions cash is king. But it looks like we'll see or are seeing stagflation instead of recession, at least until the tariff issue stabilizes, which might not happen before Nov 2026. Or it might. With the inflation component of stagflation, cash depreciates in value and assets increase in value. But we might not see much inflation and it might not be stickier than 3%. We'll have to see how the Fed reacts through the end of the year and beyond. We'll have see if stagflation transitions to inflation or recession.

Bernardo de La Paz

(57,976 posts)
7. I would love for you to invest in Canada, and it is a good long-term strategy, but
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 05:12 PM
Wednesday

... Canada is facing headwinds from south of the border. The economy contracted about 1% last quarter.

On the plus side, Canada is united over global economics. We are increasing internal trade and working hard to raise international trade. Canada is the only G7 country with free trade agreements with all the other six. We are actively promoting trade around the world. Canada has lots of resources, a diverse dynamic population and culture, great education, and lots of willingness to work hard. All that makes Canada a good long-term investment.

And it's a good place to spend vacation dollars! Vacation dollars aren't tariffed by either side of the border! No tariffs on that craft beer you drank. Bargains abound. Plus "Those new sneakers? I bought 'em before I went on vacation. Wanted to look good!" And we don't have tariffs on China (except Chinese EVs), India, France or Brazil.

popsdenver

(376 posts)
20. Shaping up to be a
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 11:41 PM
Wednesday

gloomy Christmas for Corporations and Retailers.........

this whole Republican/Trump mess is about to collapse like a house of cards............

lonely bird

(2,507 posts)
4. Doesn't matter
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 04:47 PM
Wednesday

The Velveeta Vulgarian (thanks Shower Cap) will say it’s fake news.

Get ready for stagflation.

Bernardo de La Paz

(57,976 posts)
5. Does matter. Reality matters & crying "fake news" only works until maga daughter-in-law loses her job. . . . nt
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 04:50 PM
Wednesday

lonely bird

(2,507 posts)
9. Nope
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 06:18 PM
Wednesday

Reality does not matter to MAGA. Or, at best, it matters selectively. Something damages a MAGA then it matters. If it doesn’t damage that particular MAGA then it is fake news. Even if it damages other MAGAs it will still be fake news to those MAGAs it doesn’t touch.

Stagflation will damage them all but…it can be explained away as Biden’s fault or Democrats fault. ICE taking family or friends is reality because it hits them and cannot be explained away.

Bernardo de La Paz

(57,976 posts)
10. Reality doesn't matter until it smacks them w a 2x4 and then it matters. That was my point in post 5
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 06:20 PM
Wednesday

You bet it matters to a maga if they have to pay their son's family to help meet their mortgage because daughter-in-law lost job. There are millions of variations on how it hits them.

The point is that tyrannical regimes can only hide things for a limited amount of time and to limited extents.

lonely bird

(2,507 posts)
11. That is true for the individual directed impacted
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 06:22 PM
Wednesday

His friends or MAGAs unknown to him would get a shoulder shrug.

Bernardo de La Paz

(57,976 posts)
12. If it's isolated. It won't be. Before long there will Covid deaths, high produce prices, a lack of Christmas goods.
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 06:25 PM
Wednesday

The more time rolls on the harder it is to explain it away, to pin it on Obama and Biden.

bucolic_frolic

(52,203 posts)
14. I think things are softer than they are letting on
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 09:15 PM
Wednesday

Walmart had lots of rollbacks and closeouts today. Few employees in the store when it opened. And I'm finding very wide price disparities between retailers on the exact same item. $12 on a can of varnish. $1.07 on 1/2 a pound of cocoa.

Bernardo de La Paz

(57,976 posts)
15. Cocoa is way up bc of crop conditions. Varnish should be made in US, some brands maybe not. . . . nt
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 09:24 PM
Wednesday

bucolic_frolic

(52,203 posts)
16. Varnish was identical in both stores, national brand.
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 09:28 PM
Wednesday

I'm thinking Wally's doesn't move much varnish, so may be stock on hand. Lowes can move it at any price. Doubt it's a foreign sourced item.

riversedge

(77,539 posts)
17. US Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows fewer open jobs than job seekers
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 09:43 PM
Wednesday

Will Trump fire the Chair of this Dept now??


US Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows fewer open jobs than job seekers

By Alicia Wallace, CNN Sep 3, 2025 Updated 10 hrs ago

https://www.local3news.com/local-news/us-bureau-of-labor-statistics-data-shows-fewer-open-jobs-than-job-seekers/article_069e184b-d3fc-4047-b295-077096172417.html

Metaphorical

(2,516 posts)
18. Meat prices (beef in particular) are insane
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 10:20 PM
Wednesday

Here in Olympia, WA, I'm now paying $10 for a pound of ground beef, up considerably from the $5 or so just about a year ago. We don't have a very beef heavy diet (mainly taco meat used for tacos and spicy spaghetti sauce) but even so we've been cutting back on how often we have those. Cereals are also high, with even store brands (which used to be $2-$3 dollars) now pushing $5 a pop for every slimmer boxes. Eggs have moderated a little bit, but are still high, and vegetables ... ouch.

This is also factoring into how often we've gone out for dinner (much, much less lately) as an outing for four people will easily run $100 or more.

I think the one wild card so far has been in the cost of gasoline, which has continued in the $4-$5 a gallon range for a while now. I'm waiting for some international incident led by the orange one to push oil prices through the roof again, which will act as yet another accelerant for inflation.

Buddyzbuddy

(1,390 posts)
19. My coffee of choice (not gourmet) is up 58%.
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 11:18 PM
Wednesday

Pork sausage up 100%, ground beef is up 20%. I do all of the cooking and all of the grocery shopping, every week. Prices are definitely up and customers are down.

Up to a month ago we ate dinner out 3-4 times a week, now maybe once per week.
It's not that we can't afford it, I just hate feeling like I'm getting my pockets picked.

Everyday is starting to feel like a Vegas stay. A different fee or charge tacked on. For every egg included in a meal, our local diner is adding $1.00 to the menu price. Lower quality beef is working it's way in to steak dinners. Any extra sauce is an upcharge. Have you noticed a packaged pound of bacon is now 12 ounces.

American consumers won't have to boycott, there won't be a choice. Unemployment numbers will climb. They'll just not tell us about it. Price increases, nope, we couldn't find any. Product shortages, it's all in your mind. No COLA increase this year because there's no inflation. 30% Reduction in Social Security checks, their response will be, you're lucky we didn't reduce it by 50%.

Today the Felon said the money spent on Ukrainian military was a stupid Biden decision. Remind me how much was spent on the Felon's parade or the use of military planes to deliver detainees to far off detention facilities. How much to keep the National Guard cleaning (literally) the streets and parks of D.C.?

Wall Street industrial fan, meet huge pile of sh.t.

popsdenver

(376 posts)
21. Agreed
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 11:46 PM
Wednesday

Like you said, it's not only the higher price, but for a lesser quantity......ShrinkFlation..........

All the Corporations are in for a shock in the near future.............

Hey, these greedy corporations grew it, they can chew it......munch munch munch.

GenThePerservering

(3,030 posts)
22. I tend to think we'll see the break point in November-
Wed Sep 3, 2025, 11:47 PM
Wednesday

December. Give another few months for this to cook: Pre-order stock will be running out, inflation will hit more commodities, etc. The "Moderate to modest" increase happens until the bottom falls out, i.e., the Wiley Coyote syndrome (Paul Krugman).

Even in April I had sticker shock when I went grocery shopping after staying in England for months - everything was a lot more expensive here. Now it has increased.

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