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BumRushDaShow

(160,105 posts)
Thu Aug 14, 2025, 08:33 AM Aug 14

Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, much more than expected

Last edited Thu Aug 14, 2025, 09:12 AM - Edit history (1)

Source: CNBC

Published Thu, Aug 14 2025 8:31 AM EDT Updated 5 Min Ago


Wholesale prices rose far more than expected in July, providing a potential sign that inflation is still a threat to the U.S. economy, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Thursday showed.

The producer price index, which measures final demand goods and services prices, jumped 0.9% on the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% gain. It was the biggest monthly gain since June 2022.

Excluding food and energy prices, core PPI rose 0.9% against the forecast for 0.3%. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index was up 0.6%, the biggest gain since March 2022.



On an annual basis, headline PPI increased 3.3%, the biggest 12-month move since February and well above the Fed's 2% inflation target.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/14/ppi-inflation-report-july-2025-.html



Article updated.

Previous articles -

Published Thu, Aug 14 2025 8:31 AM EDT Updated 1 Min Ago


Wholesale prices rose far more than expected in July, providing a potential sign that inflation is still a threat to the U.S. economy, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Thursday showed.

The producer price index, which measures final demand goods and services prices, jumped 0.9% on the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% gain. It was the biggest monthly gain since June 2022.

Excluding food and energy prices, core PPI rose 0.9% against the forecast for 0.3%. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index was up 0.6%, the biggest gain since March 2022. On an annual basis, headline PPI increased 3.3%, the biggest 12-month move since February and well above the Fed's 2% inflation target.

Services inflation provided much of the push higher, moving 1.1% higher in July for the largest gain also since March 2022. Trade services margins rose 2%, coming amid ongoing developments in President Donald Trump's tariff implementations. In addition, 30% of the increase in services came from a 3.8% increase in machinery and equipment wholesaling.



Published Thu, Aug 14 2025 8:31 AM EDT Updated 2 Min Ago


Wholesale prices rose far more than expected in July, providing a potential deterrent for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Thursday showed.

The producer price index, which measures final demand goods and services prices, jumped 0.9% on the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% gain.

Excluding food and energy prices, core PPI rose 0.9% against the forecast for 0.3%. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index was up 0.6%, the biggest gain since March 2022.

On an annual basis, headline PPI increased 3.3%, the biggest 12-month move since February and well above the Fed's 2% inflation target.



Original article -

Published Thu, Aug 14 2025 8:31 AM EDT


The producer price index was expected to a show a 0.2% increase for July, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.
25 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, much more than expected (Original Post) BumRushDaShow Aug 14 OP
well twodogsbarking Aug 14 #1
Fire the PPI coordinator! Immediately! Prairie Gates Aug 14 #2
Inflation shock: Producer prices rise more than forecast as core inflation hits 3-year high in July mahatmakanejeeves Aug 14 #3
Oddly enough BumRushDaShow Aug 14 #4
Yeah, it takes awhile for rising or falling prices to work their way Deminpenn Aug 15 #22
I think it was a month or two ago BumRushDaShow Aug 15 #23
Prices bromeando Aug 14 #5
Trump will blame it on Biden RazorbackExpat Aug 14 #6
Not shocking at all Johnny2X2X Aug 14 #7
Oops chicoescuela Aug 14 #8
Sounds right. onenote Aug 14 #9
Kick BlueWavePsych Aug 14 #10
Here come the serious impacts from the tariffs... Wiz Imp Aug 14 #11
GRAPHS (words still in progress) progree Aug 14 #12
umm... Trump has not fired another person from BLS yet?? and it has been hours since Report released!! riversedge Aug 14 #13
They're NOT eating the tariffs !! dweller Aug 14 #14
Some businesses are not passing Deminpenn Aug 15 #24
.9% in a single month works out to 10.8% per year. Buckle your seatbelts. This ride is just getting started. Midnight Writer Aug 14 #15
Just the beginning Nigrum Cattus Aug 14 #16
I doubt this was a surprise to Fed Chairman Powell. Gimpyknee Aug 14 #17
The world's #1 economy. czarjak Aug 14 #18
This Is Exactly Where I Would Expect To See The First Wave Of Tariff Inflation To Hit. DallasNE Aug 14 #19
That's 10.8% annual inflation Nigrum Cattus Aug 14 #20
BLS Discontinues Selected PPIs (lots & lots of them) progree Aug 15 #21
Wholesale fresh and dry vegetables up 38.9% from June to July. progree Aug 17 #25

mahatmakanejeeves

(66,703 posts)
3. Inflation shock: Producer prices rise more than forecast as core inflation hits 3-year high in July
Thu Aug 14, 2025, 08:52 AM
Aug 14
Inflation shock: Producer prices rise more than forecast as core inflation hits 3-year high in July

Myles Udland • Head of News
Thu, August 14, 2025 at 8:37 AM EDT • 2 min read

Producer prices in July rose faster than forecast across the board, giving investors and the Federal Reserve an inflation surprise just over a week out from Fed Chair Jay Powell's crucial Jackson Hole speech.

The Producer Price Index for July showed inflation for businesses rose 0.9% over the prior month in July, well ahead of the 0.2% increase that was forecast data from the BLS showed Thursday. On an annual basis, prices rose 3.3%, the most since February.

{snip}

BumRushDaShow

(160,105 posts)
4. Oddly enough
Thu Aug 14, 2025, 08:59 AM
Aug 14

I didn't think it was "a surprise" because I am thinking that the upstream of the chain (importers and wholesalers) were still "eating" the higher prices (at least whatever had actually gone into effect), so the retailers could have a bit of a break (and they stocked up ahead of TACO's flip flop tariffs). But now their warehouses are drained or are draining and that will eventually trickle down to the retailers, who will eventually need to pass those higher prices on to the consumers.

Deminpenn

(17,000 posts)
22. Yeah, it takes awhile for rising or falling prices to work their way
Fri Aug 15, 2025, 05:50 AM
Aug 15

down to local retail.

Don't recall whose MSNBC show it was on, but one of the guests said that right now Walmart is paying a lot in tariffs because they don't want to pass the costs to their consumers. But that won't last forever. I've noticed items there that have gone up in price. Tomatoes from Mexico went from 98 cents to 1.12 and, interestingly, on the price sign the word "Mexico" is spelled vertically down the side. With a 30% tariff, that would be a 30 cent increase, so Walmart only passed half of that along to consumers.

One other thing, during the pandemic, I think a lot of businesses took advantage of the situation and raised their prices far more than necessary. That might well be a big reason they've been willing to absorb the tariff and not pass it along for now.

BumRushDaShow

(160,105 posts)
23. I think it was a month or two ago
Fri Aug 15, 2025, 06:03 AM
Aug 15

when Walmart warned that since they had already stocked up, they were able to deal with the tariffs in the short term, but they said once that inventory got depleted, they would have to start passing on the increases to the customer.

And during the pandemic, even acknowledging the supply issues (amidst some port strikes and reduced personnel, leaving cargo ships stranded waiting to dock and unload), there was quite a bit of price gouging - and that actually lasted a year past the peak, when they were finally called out on it once it was obvious that the supply issues had been mostly resolved.

Similar happened with the initial bird flu outbreak in 2022 & 2023 where a year past that peak, gouging began and continued (like now with recent new outbreaks from last year), despite the fact that the average hen can start laying from chick after about 6 months, for those farms needing replacement hens.

Johnny2X2X

(23,388 posts)
7. Not shocking at all
Thu Aug 14, 2025, 09:12 AM
Aug 14

Tariffs increasing prices impacts businesses quickly, but takes a while to show up in the data like this.

0.9% for a month is almost 11% annually, Would be catastrophic for our economy.

onenote

(45,636 posts)
9. Sounds right.
Thu Aug 14, 2025, 09:51 AM
Aug 14

Of course, two days ago there were lots of DUers claiming that the BLS numbers on inflation were not trustworthy. Occam's razor suggests the conspiracy theorists might want to reconsider if they're going to accept today's report from BLS.

Now, when the next employment numbers come out -- if they come out -- under Trump's lackey -- there may be good reason for suspicion.

progree

(12,303 posts)
12. GRAPHS (words still in progress)
Thu Aug 14, 2025, 11:18 AM
Aug 14

Last edited Thu Aug 14, 2025, 01:56 PM - Edit history (1)

The values in the graphs are calculated using the actual index numbers, not from the rounded-off-to-a-single-digit monthly changes.
The annualization calculations also takes into account compounding.
As an example, the reported 0.9% increase for the PPI in July -- someone downstream annualized that by simply multiplying that number by 12 to get 10.8%

In contrast, I put in the index numbers from http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4 into my spreadsheet (via copy and paste).
June: 148.270
July: 149.671
% change: +0.9448978%
1.009448978^12 = 1.1194700 , then subtract 1 and multiply by 100% = 11.95%
So 11.95%.

Simply multiplying the 0.9448978% by 12 yields 11.34%
So the compounding added 0.61 percentage points to it

PPI


Core PPI (PPI less food, energy, and trade services)
I use the Core PPI less food, energy, and trade services because that's what the BLS highlights (and that was true pre-Krasnov too), so I am doing likewise. The idea of the core is to remove the volatile components that bounce up and down a lot from month to month, so that's another reason to use the core PPI less food, energy, and trade services to project FUTURE inflation trends, and that's why the Fed focuses on core measures.


12 month graphs from OP. The graph's labeling says the core is PPI less food, energy, and trade services


PPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
Core PPI (wo food, energy, trade services) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116
Core PPI (wo food & energy) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49104
You can see graphs at the above links too -- chose More Fomatting Options at the upper right of the page and then check boxes like 1 Month, 3 Month, 12 Month


Probably has a similar wide-eyed reaction to today's numbers.

riversedge

(77,763 posts)
13. umm... Trump has not fired another person from BLS yet?? and it has been hours since Report released!!
Thu Aug 14, 2025, 11:35 AM
Aug 14

Deminpenn

(17,000 posts)
24. Some businesses are not passing
Fri Aug 15, 2025, 03:23 PM
Aug 15

100% of the tariffs on to consumers right now for their own various reasons.

Midnight Writer

(24,708 posts)
15. .9% in a single month works out to 10.8% per year. Buckle your seatbelts. This ride is just getting started.
Thu Aug 14, 2025, 01:24 PM
Aug 14

Nigrum Cattus

(1,002 posts)
16. Just the beginning
Thu Aug 14, 2025, 03:06 PM
Aug 14

I have noticed that everything across the grocery
store has gone up more than that here in Cali.

DallasNE

(7,871 posts)
19. This Is Exactly Where I Would Expect To See The First Wave Of Tariff Inflation To Hit.
Thu Aug 14, 2025, 06:05 PM
Aug 14

And it looks like steel and aluminum could be leading the way. We need to wait until September with changes in Fed interest rates, but because of the biggest drivers here, it makes the headline number more tame than it really is.

progree

(12,303 posts)
21. BLS Discontinues Selected PPIs (lots & lots of them)
Fri Aug 15, 2025, 02:56 AM
Aug 15
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
BLS Discontinues Selected PPIs

With the release of Producer Price Index (PPI) data for July 2025 on August 14, 2025, BLS has
ended calculation and publication of 5 Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) indexes,
listed below.

FD-ID code FD-ID Title
FD49103 Final demand less foods, food and nonalcoholic beverages for immediate consumption, and energy
FD49105 Final demand less foods and food and nonalcoholic beverages for immediate consumption
FD49202 Total finished less foods, food and nonalcoholic beverages for immediate consumption, and energy
FD49204 Total finished less foods and food and nonalcoholic beverages for immediate consumption
ID69215 Nonfood materials excluding fuel for manufacturing, excluding selected items

In addition, with the release of July 2025 PPI data, BLS has stopped calculation and publication
of about 350 PPIs from the industry, commodity, and special index categories. Details of these
index eliminations are available at www.bls.gov/ppi/notices/2025/bls-to-discontinue-selected-
ppis.htm.

For further information, contact the PPI Section of Index Analysis and Public Information at
ppi-info@bls.gov or (202) 691-7705.

progree

(12,303 posts)
25. Wholesale fresh and dry vegetables up 38.9% from June to July.
Sun Aug 17, 2025, 01:22 PM
Aug 17

Last edited Sun Aug 17, 2025, 02:54 PM - Edit history (1)

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.t02.htm

Final Demand goods -> final demand foods -> fresh and dry vegetables +38.9% from June to July, seasonally adjusted.
(and 16.4% year-over-year).
I don't see anything about "domestic" -- see below article -- on this table. I never read or heard anything before that the PPI was "domestic"

Compare to:
Final Demand goods: +0.7% June to July, and +1.9% yoy

Final Demand goods -> final demand foods: +1.4% June to July, and +4.2% yoy

https://www.today.com/food/news/wholesale-vegetable-prices-skyrocket-rcna225193
In July 2025, wholesale prices for domestic fresh and dry vegetables skyrocketed 38.9% compared to a year ago, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. ((domestic?? -Progree))

In ground beef prices rose to $6.12 a pound. The record high was a nearly 12% increase from last year. Additionally, the average cost of uncooked beef steaks was also up to $11.49 a pound (an 8% increase).


=====================================================

I've been eating 3 cups of vegetables a day for quite some time, so this is quite concerning. The Dept of Agriculture's Dietary Gudelines recommends 2.5 cups of vegetables a day.
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