and get a flurry of breaking news alerts from them but they hadn't gotten around to the PCE yet (nor had CNBC).

I finally found it on Bloomberg and just posted the OP - https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143450476

(I'm out of Bloomberg gift articles - they only offer 5 a month, but my re-up set will start tomorrow )

it works for me

I sub to them so reading the site (for myself) is not the problem. It's getting links to it for OPs for others, that can be a concern. I can often find news aggregators (e.g., msn, Aol, Yahoo! News, etc) who will sometimes pick up the Bloomberg wire service articles and will republish without a paywall, and I will often use those links when I find them.

I have refused to use the archive sites because I have been attacked for doing so.

if Crumb The 1st doesn't order them to rig the numbers. As we know 2 negative quarters in a row is the definition of going into a recession. As this article from NBC notes:

"Dr. Antonio Saravia says the “conventional definition” of a recession is when there is negative growth in the GDP in two consecutive quarters."

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/what-is-a-recession-impacts-jobs-real-estate-economy/3693896/

That's the tariff plan, after all, right?

Right?



Oh, right. We're in the "transition period." After the "transition period" we will be in Tariff-Generated Paradise of manufacturing jobs where unions are illegal and there is no OSHA, and all the massive tariffs paid by China will fund public schools so we don't have to pay anymore property taxes, and the school cafeteria will have pizza and ice cream for every lunch period, and homework will be banned by Executive Order! Heyoooo!

Keep in mind he didn't take office until 20 days into the quarter, and his "policies" did not kick in until later than that, so this shrinkage only reflects a few weeks of Trump's Administration.

Think of what he can do in two full quarters, or a year, or even four years.

MAGNA

Imports and GDP are not directly related. But I guess economists use trade deficits to adjust total economic activity to net out the domestic product. The argument is that there was pre-loading of imports to try to beat the Trump tariffs, and that arithmetic will go the other direction next quarter.

But actual domestic production will not go up much, if at all. We can't set up manufacturing for all these goods in a quarter, or a decade, for that matter. Plus, we don't have the labor force. Trump is scaring away the people who do much of "our labor" for us.

It seems more likely that GDP will continue to go down, even with this adjustment. During the next 90 days, we will start seeing more commentary about the "wealth effect" disappearing. Since the flood of cash was pumped into the global economies in 2008, the markets have been white hot. Anybody who owns some equities thinks they are stinkin' rich, and they will spend their money loosely. But the tariffs are already starting to cause layoffs. The wealth effect can evaporate almost overnight. You see your neighbors losing their jobs, and suddenly you decide you really don't need that 60" teevee after all.

Remember, one more down GDP quarter and we will officially be in recession.

It will be the emptying of shelves in the stores that will go the other direction. And that means Walmart layoffs and work in a bottoms up fashion.

Last edited Wed Apr 30, 2025, 06:25 PM - Edit history (1)

They are reasoning "what goes up must come down" -- that is to say, if our traditional methods require us to make an irrational adjustment this quarter in response to a completely unprecedented set of circumstances, then that arithmetic will automatically fix itself the next quarter.

But as you suggest, there is a psychology setting in. Corporations anticipated this disastrous chaos from Trump and pre-ordered inventory as much as they could. But nobody can stock a year ahead, and Trump seems hellbent on continuing the chaos long past when the pre-shipped inventory runs out. Of course, he is making exceptions every single day now, mostly in response to bribes and tributes, I believe. But if tomorrow morning, Trump said "OK, I'm done with tariffs. Forget I ever brought that up", there has already been enormous damage. In particular, our best partners (Canada, Mexico, Japan, the EU countries) will never trust Trump. They will trade with us as absolutely necessary, but they are already working hard to open new trade partnerships that leave the US out.

The economists are just wrong. This will not snap back to where it was.

The stock market is tanking, your idiot president blathers BS about how his tariffs will make your lives better, your medicaid, education, cost of living, all being destroyed...and all you Americans seem to be accepting of this. Your lives are being decimated by this scumbag and his cronies, thousands of jobs at risk or already lost. This is acceptable. Where is the outrage? Where are all the rich folks who are bleeding millions of dollars every week? I just don't get it! If this is ok with you...then expect the world to turn it's back on you and do business with everyone but you, as we all like to thrive economically and socially. Be isolated...see how good things won't be!

The excuses will fly like a gigantic rocket to deep outer space.

When he caused and owns this downturn all by himself!

Then, we will officially be in a recession. There is no need to wait for 2026 to arrive for the recession to hit. It will have started in Trump's first 100 days. (Because the number is small -0.3%, it probably means that in January and February, the number was still slightly positive, but when it turned negative in March, it was more than enough to offset the small gains in January and February, leaving the quarter at -0.3%.)

In another post yesterday, I predicted that the recession would not start in 2026, as predicted by the experts, but in June 2025. Today's GDP news makes that obsolete. I now think it probably started in March 2025. And Trump will do nothing to lessen the blow, so I now expect that it will be a steep recession with stagflation that will be ongoing during the 2026 election.

Biden didn't start a freaking global trade war, and fire tens of thousands of people, moron!

Last edited Thu May 1, 2025, 07:39 PM - Edit history (2)

recessions occur. (The U.S. government Bureau of Economic Analysis says the NBER -- National Bureau of Economic Research -- is the official arbiter -- see below). Not Internet memes and myths, no matter how common they may be.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/what-is-a-recession-impacts-jobs-real-estate-economy/3693896/