50501 toolkit: Responding to Federal Occupying Forces

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50501 toolkit: Responding to Federal Occupying Forces

Hot links are included here:
https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/1-BgqBwCwHf9TbRMU-n6fA82Ux7RtclC1IiLXfMl82Hc/mobilebasic

This is read only without hotlinks.

Table of Contents (click to jump ahead)
We the People are PISSED: statement/intro
Situation Report: current status of militarization
Who the Guard Really Are: analysis of the workers in the Guard
Defection & Noncompliance: understanding what defection and noncompliance is, why it matters, and how to support more of it
Interacting With The National Guard: strategy for interactions
Where to Focus Our Energy: how we should respond
Expanded State & Regional Plays: everything and the kitchen sink
Ready-To-Use Messaging: suggestions for messaging/framing
Zoom In: Plays By Officials: examples from Pritzker and Krasner
Calls to Action: If Your Community Is Occupied: delegate!
Quick Action Checklist: TLDR checklist
Closing: final remarks to ground our resistance
Author’s Note: appreciation for contributors, toolkit promotion
BONUS: Tactical Risk Assessment

We the People are PISSED
MAGA—the American fascist party, led by Donald Trump and bankrolled by ultra-wealthy technofascists—is seizing power while militarizing our streets to cover up its failing legitimacy: the tanking economy, the Epstein files, and his wildly unpopular ICE kidnappings.

The U.S. Military is being exploited as a labor pool, while poor and working-class communities of color are treated as enemies. This is not about “safety.” It is about control—and by design, it is deadly.

We know the pattern. When troops roll in, Black and Brown communities are the first to feel the violence—raids, checkpoints, intimidation, and the criminalization of dissent.

We refuse occupation in our towns and neighborhoods. Militarization is expensive, destructive, and unsustainable. Each deployment drains millions in taxpayer dollars that should be funding schools, housing, clinics, and jobs. It poisons our environment with fuel, waste, and weapons, while Trump squanders our resources on repression instead of care.

Our demand is clear: pull out all troops immediately. We call on our elected officials to protect our people, our communities, and our right to self-govern.

We Keep Us Safe

Real safety is not built by soldiers in our streets. Real safety is built by neighbors protecting neighbors, by compassion, by solidarity, by standing with those most targeted.

We refuse to let poverty be criminalized. Our unhoused neighbors, low-wage workers, and struggling families are not disposable.

We refuse the terrorizing of immigrant communities. Troops paired with ICE mean more raids, family separations, and fear. We will not let our immigrant neighbors be scapegoated or dehumanized.

We refuse every attack on those already pushed to the margins: queer and trans people, disabled people, youth, returning citizens, Native and Indigenous peoples. Their survival is resistance, their leadership lights the path forward.

And we name this truth: people of color living at the intersections—immigrant, queer, trans, disabled, poor—carry the heaviest weight of occupation. We hold them at the center of our struggle.

Together, we reject militarization. Together, we resist occupation. Together, we build safety that no army can take away.


Situation Report
Mid-August 2025: Trump federalized law enforcement and sent the National Guard into Washington, D.C., burning $1 million/day and turning neighborhoods into occupation zones.

“These federal agents have now shown a clear pattern of violently profiling, harassing, and arresting Black and Brown DC community members. They are armed, sometimes unidentified, and moving in gangs through DC neighborhoods confronting people who are simply at home, driving to work, or doing routine daily activities.” – Free DC

“This situation is more than a threat to DC residents. It is an active military takeover of the nation's capital.” – Free DC

Florida: ~200 Marines remain deployed since July, supporting racist and unconstitutional ICE operations.

California: Marines and National Guard units were deployed earlier this summer, despite clear objections from state and local leaders who rejected militarization. Trump bypassed their authority and imposed federal occupation anyway. Those forces have since been withdrawn following massive public pressure and legal pushback, but the episode shows how quickly federal troops can be forced into immigrant-rich communities against the will of local governments. California was targeted as punishment for its open resistance to Trump’s agenda—a warning shot to other defiant states.

Chicago: Trump is planning a National Guard deployment, with active-duty troops also discussed. The majority of residents in Chicago are Black and Brown, with strong immigrant-led organizing and a Democratic mayor.

Other states at risk (19 total): AL, AR, FL, GA, ID, IN, IA, LA, MO, NE, NV, OH, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WY.

Additional cities at risk (6 total): Baltimore, New York, Seattle, San Francisco, Portland, Oakland.

Key takeaways:

Targeting Black and Brown cities: Almost every location he is targeting has a large Black, Latinx, or immigrant population. By painting Black and Brown communities as “dangerous” or “out of control,” Trump weaponizes racist stereotypes to justify federal crackdowns and frame communities of color as enemies of the state.
These deployments are not about public safety—they are about fascism and empire—diverting funds from schools, housing, and healthcare, and coercing workers into militarized roles weaponized against everyday Americans. Guard members themselves are exploited labor in this machine.
Criminalizing dissent: Cities like Portland, Oakland, and D.C. have long histories of protest movements—antiwar, racial justice, immigrant rights. Sending troops there is a way to silence resistance and intimidate progressive strongholds.
Punishing Democratic leadership: Every city on his list is run by Democrats, often with progressive mayors or prosecutors (like Larry Krasner in Philly, who openly resists Trump’s agenda). Trump is using the Guard as a partisan cudgel to undermine local democracy and score political points.
Why now?

Resistance is growing and the regime’s popularity is tanking. ICE recruitment struggles despite $60–120K starting pay plus benefits, and the U.S. Military is an easily available labor pool. Guard members gain benefits for active duty, such as VA home loans under title 32. The Guard have limited capacity per their training and per the law, however they are being used and those boundaries are being pushed (see DeSantis using the National Guard to reopen Baker Correctional Institute as a deportation facility).
Covering for policy failures: Violent crime has actually been declining in many of the communities Trump is targeting, like Washington D.C. for example, where violent crime rates are the lowest they have been in 30 years. By scapegoating “blue cities,” he distracts from his own failures on healthcare, jobs, the tanking economy and the Epstein files—a flashpoint issue dividing his own base.
Reinforcing authoritarian control: Deploying the Guard allows Trump to bypass local leaders and show that he can impose federal force on communities, especially those that reject him. It’s an intimidation tactic meant to normalize militarization of daily life in Black, Brown, queer, and immigrant neighborhoods. Furthermore, just like every authoritarian regime before him, Trump is militarizing the nation’s capital to prevent any challenge to his power—turning Washington, D.C. into a fortress to intimidate residents and crush dissent.

Who the Guard Really Are
The National Guard is made up of citizen soldiers with civilian jobs, families, and communities. They are students and working-class people. Typical service involves responding to natural disasters and other humanitarian work. Many join for college tuition, healthcare, or benefits—not to suppress their own communities.

While many Guard members are working-class, they often come from outside the neighborhoods they’re deployed to—especially majority-Black and immigrant communities. This mismatch can heighten the racial dynamics of occupation and increase risks of violence.

They are workers in uniform, not Trump’s private army. Seeing them that way helps us focus our protest energy on the real sources of repression: Trump, MAGA loyalists, and corporations enabling authoritarianism.

The Guard is unique because it has both state and federal roles. They are almost always under the command of their state governors, activated for natural disasters, floods, hurricanes, wildfires, pandemics, or local emergencies.

However, the Guard can be “federalized” by the president in rare circumstances—like overseas wars, or domestic emergencies, within legal limits. When federalized by Trump into areas not requested by local governors or mayors (such as CA and DC), they are placed in roles they did not sign up for and are not trained for.

We repeat. Guard members do not receive law enforcement training for these domestic deployments. They receive military training, not crowd-control or civil-liberties training. That’s why it’s so dangerous when they’re used in protests or domestic policing. They don’t have the training or mandate for it. This puts both the Guard and the public at risk, especially Black and Brown communities.

Their morale is low. Few want to be deployed domestically against civilians. Note that even “low morale” troops can carry racial biases, and that militarization legitimizes policing practices already weaponized against communities of color.

Legal context: Deploying the U.S. Military for domestic law enforcement is restricted under the Posse Comitatus Act, which exists to protect civil liberties. The law part is complicated with the National Guard vs U.S. Military, but it is fair to say that Trump’s deployment is legally questionable and constitutionally dangerous. Furthermore, National Guard members have a duty to disobey unlawful orders (info: https://nlgmltf.org/military-law/2025/faq-on-refusing-illegal-orders/).


Defection & Noncompliance
This work is usually done by organizations with deep experience, like Veterans for Peace, About Face, and other veteran and service-member–led groups. In this unique situation, civilians have been encouraged to study these tactics informed by the organization’s experience and recommendations, and engage respectfully when able to safely do so.

Why Defection & Noncompliance Matters

Authoritarian regimes rely on obedience from troops and police. When Guard members refuse orders, disobey, or quietly step back, it weakens Trump’s grip.

Research Shows: Nonviolent movements with higher rates of defection and noncompliance from security forces are far more likely to succeed (Chenoweth & Stephan, Why Civil Resistance Works).

Historical Precedent: Serbia 2000, Philippines 1986, Sudan 2019.

When troops refuse to repress, the communities most targeted—Black, immigrant, Indigenous—gain breathing room to continue organizing. Defections are not abstract wins; they directly reduce the likelihood of disproportionate harm to already over-policed communities.


How To Best Support Defection & Noncompliance Efforts

Hold discipline in our movements. Nonviolent, united protest demonstrates legitimacy and creates openings for doubt among soldiers.

Avoiding antagonizing (taunts, physical clashes) → the research shows that in scenarios like this, antagonizing those who support Trump, or the deployment, will only strengthen loyalty to the regime.

Understand why the vibe matters. Psychological research shows loyalty shifts are most likely when:

Soldiers feel connected to civilians they’re ordered to repress.
Soldiers see nonviolent discipline and solidarity rather than hostility.
Off ramps (support networks, legal advice, veteran groups) are made clear.
Coercion backfires. Public shaming or antagonism tends to entrench obedience and increase repression.
Interactions with empathy, respect, and connection builds the cracks that allow for later defection or noncompliance.

Interacting With The National Guard
Challenge With Respect: Standing firm, but treating all Guard members as humans → creates cognitive dissonance. Those who initially supported or felt neutral about the deployment can begin to ask: “Why am I pointing a rifle at my fellow Americans?” For example, the response to aggressive interactions from Guards can include statements that question, such as: “Is this what you thought you would be doing in the Guard when you signed up?”

Hanoi Hannah – tactics used in Vietnam to get American soldiers to defect. Example video: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DLHGU36yzCn/

“Trump doesn’t care about veterans. He defunded the VA!”
“Trump is treating you like trash and disrespecting the troops!”
“Don’t take orders from a draft dodger!”
NOT Antagonizing: Screaming insults, spitting, or physical clashes → hardens loyalties and justifies crackdowns. Research shows antagonism lowers defection rates and raises the chance of repression. Act with knowledge and intention, and DO NOT antagonize.

Be An Accomplice: Because Black and Brown protesters are often criminalized more harshly than white protesters, discipline and nonviolence may not be perceived equally across racial lines. White allies have a role in absorbing risk, de-escalating, and redirecting attention away from targeted communities.

Document Everything: Proper documentation protects communities, creates accountability, and provides evidence for legal and advocacy efforts. Prioritize this over confrontations. What you capture can have long-term impact.

Documentation is racial equity work. Communities of color are most likely to face criminalization. Your records create accountability and reduce impunity.
Film or photograph from a safe distance. Photos, videos, live streams, testimonies. Share securely with immigrant defense networks and legal aid.
Point interested Guard members toward resources:

GI Rights Hotline: 1-877-477-4487 | https://girightshotline.org/
War Resisters League: https://www.warresisters.org/
About Face: Veterans Against the War: https://aboutfaceveterans.org/
The Orders Project: https://www.nimj.org/top.html#/
Printable brochures, posters, and other tools from the Do Not Turn On Us campaign: https://linktr.ee/donotturnonus

The Sweet Spot: Humanizing the other side + disciplined nonviolence → maximizes the chances that Guard members hesitate, defect, or quietly support.


Read more tips on interactions here.


Where to Focus Our Energy
The real targets are the power-holders propping up Trump’s agenda. Direct efforts toward:

✔️ ICE and community defense

Join your local community defense effort. To find it search on Google, social media, or ask your local immigrant rights groups.
If you can’t find anything, you’re probably not looking in the right places. Ask someone else who might know.
If there really are no community defense efforts or networks in your community, use this moment to set one up!
https://defendandrecruit.org/
Training to form a Women’s Protection Team from Women’s March
Preview the Safety Training: Part 1 / Part 2
How to start a Community Defense Center in Your Neighborhood
Meet with your neighbors and build community power and systems (mutual aid, ride shares, phone trees to notify people about local ICE activity, etc) wherever you can.
✔️ Legal resources are especially critical right now. Funnel resources from other organizations to strengthen local immigrant defense networks.

✔️ Defense of local Black-led and immigrant-led organizing hubs, which are the first to be targeted under militarized crackdowns.

✔️ Protest at Points of Intervention, such as MAGA-aligned elected officials (district offices, campaign events) or the corporations underwriting MAGA politics (donors, enablers, profiteers).

✔️ Local organizing: Build the infrastructure of resistance beyond a single day of protest.

✔️ Legal or allied gov pressure.

NOTE: Think about your digital security. Use encrypted channels (Signal, Proton, etc.). Don’t coordinate sensitive plans over Facebook, WhatsApp, or Instagram DM.

Expanded State & Regional Plays
Review and adapt these plays for your needs. Take immediate steps to prepare—delaying preparations closes off critical options.

Protect & Support Communities
• Activate rapid-response chats and text trees. Share Know-Your-Rights info in multiple languages.
• Establish ICE/community watch groups for rapid response.
• Set up safe housing, food delivery, childcare, and transportation backups for vulnerable families.
• Expand accompaniment programs for ICE check-ins, fund legal clinics, and strengthen rapid aid for detained families.
• Resource immigrant defense funds, trauma services, and civic groups impacted by militarization.
• Funnel resources from broader organizations to local immigrant-led, Black-led, and Indigenous-led networks—legal support is especially critical.
• Educate local businesses on 4th Amendment rights, help them set up Private areas and get plugged into your community watch network to report ICE activity.

Legal & Rights Infrastructure
• Connect with local ACLU chapters, immigrant rights organizations, and bar associations; test and promote legal hotlines.
• Document Guard/ICE activity safely (film/photograph from a distance; log unit identifiers, locations, times) and funnel evidence to hotlines such as Eyes on ICE, your local text tree or group chat, and/or legal allies.
• Prep litigation citing the 10th Amendment, which protects state sovereignty, and Printz v. United States (1997), where the Supreme Court ruled that the federal government cannot commandeer—or force—state officials to enforce federal law.
• Outreach via veterans, clergy, and community leaders to encourage Guard members to question orders; new organizers focus on support infrastructure and legal aid.

Government & Policy Levers
• Press governors/AGs to not call in the National Guard. Ask them to deploy their Guard for official state work so Trump can not federalize them.
• Advance city/county ordinances restricting ICE data-sharing, facility use, and requiring public reporting.
• Push hearings, resolutions, and investigations into costs to taxpayers.
• Pass state legislation limiting cooperation with federal raids; demand congressional reforms clarifying Guard roles.
• Identify and pressure MAGA-aligned corporations backing deployments—organize campaigns, boycotts, and call-outs.
• Organize a letter campaign for allies targeting members of congress, like Free DC’s campaign here.

Public Narrative & Nonviolent Pressure
• Organize rotating vigils and marches at local points of intervention.
• Frame deployments as costly, unconstitutional overreach harming communities, fascist.
• Encourage defections through legal and veteran channels.
• Train de-escalation marshals to keep protests disciplined and prevent provocations.
• Engage clergy, unions, and veterans to lead vigils, press events, and solidarity actions.
• Focus on MAGA representatives, corporate backers, and points of intervention.

Oversight & Accountability
• Track Guard spending; file FOIA/state records requests for deployment orders and communications.
• Publicize findings to bolster legal and political pressure.
• Maintain channels for real-time Guard movements, ICE actions, and community impacts.


Ready-To-Use Messaging
“Trump wants to distract from the tanking economy, the Epstein files, and his massively unpopular and unconstitutional ICE kidnappings.”
“This military theater shows Trump for exactly what he is: a fascist dictator rapidly consolidating power.”
“(City) is a vibrant, diverse city of neighbors, families, and workers. It is not a war zone. We are not enemy combatants.”
“Sending soldiers into our streets echoes a long, racist history of using state power to suppress, punish, and intimidate Black, Brown, immigrant, disabled, and poor communities.”
“Trump’s threat to invade (City/State) is authoritarianism. Deploying the military domestically is a hallmark of dictators and a threat to democracy.”
“Every dollar spent on National Guard deployment is a dollar taken from our communities. True safety comes not from militarized force but from investing in people and their well-being.”
“The real fight is against the MAGA machine that profits off racism and repression—not against working people forced into uniform.”
“These are the illegal acts of a fascist regime. This is an authoritarian crisis.”
“(City) belongs to the people who live here, who have elected a mayor and a governor to lead them.”

Sample Graphics
Sample Social Copy
“Trump is militarizing our streets because he’s losing legitimacy. Don’t stop talking about the #EpsteinFiles, or the wildly unpopular and unconstitutional ICE kidnappings. #FreeDC”
“Every dollar spent militarizing our streets is a dollar stolen from schools, housing, and healthcare. Trump’s deployments aren’t about public safety—they’re a desperate play to distract and intimidate Americans. #TrumpIsOnTheList #FreeDC”
For the LoLz, Sample Social Copy in Trump-speak
“Trump LIES about crime + deploys Guard. Why? To hide the TRUTH: collapsing economy, Epstein files, and ILLEGAL ICE kidnappings. TOTAL cover-up. #EpsteinList #FreeDC”
“Trump sends TROOPS into Black & Brown neighborhoods because he KNOWS he’s losing power. PURE weakness from a TRAITOR. #FreeDC #TrumpIsAPedo”
“The REAL ENEMY is ICE + MAGA, the OUTLAWS making $$$ off racism + repression. NOT working folks in uniform!! Thank you for your attention to this matter. #FDT #FreeDC”

Zoom In: Plays By Officials
When Trump deploys the Guard or federal troops without request, governors, attorneys general, and mayors have a duty to defend their residents, state sovereignty, and the Constitution.

The strongest models so far come from Gov. JB Pritzker (Illinois), Gov. Gavin Newsom (California), Philadelphia’s DA Larry Krasner, and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. Together they’re showing how state and city leaders can resist authoritarian overreach.


1. Opening Defiance

Pritzker: “Mr. President, do not come to Illinois. You are neither wanted here nor needed here.”
Johnson: “We do not need nor want an unconstitutional and illegal military occupation of our city.”
Newsom: “California will not be complicit in Trump’s authoritarian playbook.”
2. Defending Sovereignty & Rights

Pritzker: “We will not allow Washington to trample on the sovereignty of our state.”
Newsom: “Trump does not get to federalize our Guard for his own political theater.”
Johnson: Directed city agencies to educate residents on their rights and banned local cooperation with federal forces.
3. Accountability & Consequences

Krasner: “If ICE agents or the military commit illegal assaults, kidnappings, or restraint, they can be prosecuted in state court — and they cannot be pardoned by the president.”
Pritzker: Warned Guard troops that violating residents’ rights would mean state charges Trump cannot erase.
4. Framing the Narrative

Pritzker: “This deployment is not law and order — it is lawlessness.”
Newsom: “This isn’t about public safety. It’s scapegoating immigrants and criminalizing protest.”
Johnson: “Trump is manufacturing a crisis, politicizing the military, and abusing power.”

Pritzker, Newsom, Krasner, and Johnson prove state and local leaders can block Trump’s overreach by:

Refusing cooperation,
Prosecuting abuses,
Asserting sovereignty, and
Framing deployments as unconstitutional power grabs.

Demand these actions from your own leaders — the more officials echo these models, the more Trump’s occupation narrative collapses.


Calls to Action: If Your Community Is Occupied
For residents on the ground:

Prioritize safety and solidarity. Move with a buddy whenever possible.
Know your rights—and use them.
Document encounters with police, ICE, Guard, or other federal agents. Footage saves lives.
Help redirect neighbors away from checkpoints or heavily militarized areas.
Make your resistance visible—hang banners, paint signs, send a message: “Free [Your City/State]!”
If you carry privilege (whether race, ability, or citizenship), use it wisely—show up, speak out, and center the voices of those most targeted.
Support your community: drive folks where they need to go, pick up groceries, cover errands so the most vulnerable can avoid harm.

For city and state leaders:

Flat-out refuse collaboration. No data-sharing, no coordination, no legitimizing ICE, Guard, or federal agents patrolling our streets.
Go public: denounce these deployments as illegal occupations and demand immediate withdrawal. Your residents need to see you standing with them, not hiding behind federal orders.
Prosecute the federal offenders, deploy your own forces to defend your constituents. Don't just hold the line, fight back.
For allies outside the occupied zone:

Flood Congress with pressure. Call, write, and demand your reps oppose military occupation of U.S. cities.
Push for investigations, hearings, and funding cuts to stop these forces from being weaponized against civilians.
Back any resolutions that rein in executive power and defend civil liberties.
Reject every attempt to expand authoritarian control at the federal level.

Quick Action Checklist
✅ Join or start a local ICE/community defense network.
✅ Support and amplify Black-led, immigrant-led, and Indigenous-led organizations resisting militarization.
✅ Practice solidarity by showing up where racialized repression is heaviest—not just in majority-white protest spaces. Ask what they need, and then listen and follow through.
✅ Identify if any MAGA-aligned officials are in your area → plan an office protest or visibility action.
✅ Research local corporations backing Trump/MAGA → pressure campaigns, boycotts, call-outs.
✅ Amplify messaging: Push slogans, talking points, and solidarity narratives on social.
✅ Focus on immigrant help groups: Funnel resources from other orgs to strengthen local immigrant defense networks. Legal resources are especially critical right now.
✅ Consider all potential responses, including responses from allies in government or the legal community.


Closing
As with all our movement work, centering racial justice is essential. It ensures that the communities most targeted by this crackdown are not only protected, but uplifted and leading. This fight is bigger than Trump—it’s about dismantling the racist machinery of militarized policing and building a future rooted in justice, liberation, and care for one another.

This is a dangerous moment, but it is also clarifying. Trump’s overreach exposes his desperation. By keeping our focus laser-sharp on disciplined, strategic resistance, we continue chipping away at the pillars propping up his regime. Our real fight is with Trump, ICE kidnapping people in our communities, MAGA lawmakers enacting fascist laws, and all the other pillars enabling this authoritarian agenda.

As we organize, resist, and protect our communities, we carry with us the love, wisdom, and courage of those who have long fought against American fascism—the elders, Indigenous leaders, and Black Americans who have shouldered this struggle for generations. Who remind us that our fight is part of a much larger story: one of survival, resistance, and the relentless pursuit of justice.

This moment calls for clarity, purpose, and love. By grounding ourselves in disciplined, intersectional resistance, we honor those who came before us and ensure the next generation inherits a foundation of safety, solidarity, and liberation. We resist not out of anger alone, but out of care—for our neighbors, for our communities, and for the long arc of justice we are bending toward.

Every act of protection, documentation, and solidarity weakens their oppression. Together, with humility, courage, and love, we will continue dismantling the machinery of repression and building a future where all communities can thrive.

Author’s Note
This toolkit is the result of many minds and experiences. Thank you for your collaboration and contributions. It is an honor to be in the struggle with you all.

If you would like to help spread the word about this toolkit, here are some memes you can customize or download via Canva.



BONUS: Tactical Risk Assessment for National Guard Deployments (contributed)
What’s new / why this matters

19-state Guard mobilization (Title 32): Assists ICE and local agencies but does not authorize Guard to conduct arrests. Expect increased capacity for processing/detention and a larger uniformed footprint near ICE/CBP nodes, ports, and capitols. (Fox News, The Independent, New York Post)
DC posture escalation: DC Guard armed while patrolling federal zones; additional red-state Guard units have been tapped to support DC operations. This raises the likelihood of tighter perimeters and faster dispersal orders around federal assets during the 9/6 actions. (The Guardian, Los Angeles Times, Fox News)
Expansion threats to other cities: Public statements in the last 48 hours flagged Chicago, New York, and San Francisco as potential next targets for federalized crackdowns, which can draw counter-mobilizations in those metros and in the named states. (The Guardian, Fox News, KTVU FOX 2 San Francisco, San Francisco Chronicle)
State-by-state risk frame (snapshot)

This summarizes how the Fox-listed states intersect with the 9/1 mobilization and potential escalations into 9/6:

Higher aggregate risk (multiple large metros, ICE/CBP nodes, ports, or border): IL, TX, FL, GA, OH, NV, VA, LA, NM, TN.
Why: Large urban cores + sensitive infrastructure/ports; Guard assists can increase custody throughput; crowd–control pressure points around capitols/tourism corridors. (Fox News, The Independent)
Moderate risk (capitol-centric actions and 1–2 mid-sized metros): AL, IN, IA, NE, SC, UT.
Why: Primary flashpoints around capitols and downtowns; logistics hubs (ports in SC). (Fox News)
Lower–moderate risk (smaller populations, dispersed geographies): AR, ID, SD, WY.
Why: Smaller turnouts historically; focus on capitol lawns/courthouse areas; still monitor for counter-protests and jurisdictional confusion. (Fox News)
(Details for each state—likely hotspots and risk ratings—are in the CSV and the on-screen table you can scroll.)

9/1 vs. 9/6 implications

Sept 1 (nationwide “mass mobilization”): Title-32 Guard support could free up local police for frontline protest response in the 19 states, increasing the chance of rapid dispersals in dense urban spots and around ICE facilities. Expect uneven local interpretations of “support” vs. direct enforcement. Likelihood: High. Impact: Localized but widespread. (Fox News, The Independent)
Sept 6 (DC): Armed DC Guard + imported Guard units + overlapping federal land jurisdictions (NPS) raise the probability of cordons/kettling near the Mall, Lafayette Square, Union Station, and federal buildings. Likelihood: High. Impact: High. (The Guardian, Los Angeles Times, Fox News)
City-types to watch inside the 19 states

Border & ICE hubs (TX, NM; also FL ports): Protests near intake/transport nodes and detention facilities; processing capacity boosted by Guard admin roles can lengthen custody timelines if arrests occur. (Fox News, The Independent)
State capitols (many of the 19): Low-friction assembly areas that can flip quickly if perimeters are tightened; watch for late-day curfew discussions if tempers flare.
Tourism/entertainment cores (NV–Las Vegas; TN–Nashville; FL–Miami/Orlando): High visibility; sensitive to road closures and media optics—can trigger rapid escalations in crowd management.
Key indicators to monitor (per state)

Governor/Adjutant General press notes clarifying Title 32 missions, arming status, and deployment locations. (New York Post)
Local permits & route advisories (city halls, police PIOs, NPS where federal land is involved).
ICE/CBP field office and courthouse schedules (peak activity windows).
Public statements about expanding federal crackdowns to Chicago/NYC/SF, which can cause solidarity actions in neighboring states. (The Guardian, Fox News, KTVU FOX 2 San Francisco, San Francisco Chronicle)
Practical, lawful risk-reduction (for organizers/attendees)

Jurisdiction clarity: Know whether space is city/county vs. federal (NPS). This shapes which agencies you’ll interface with and typical dispersal protocols.
De-escalation & medical: Assign trained de-escalators, hydration/heat plans (early Sept heat), and ADA-conscious routes.
Legal observation: Coordinate recognized legal observers; publish hotlines and jail-support ahead of time.
Chokepoint management: Be mindful of Metro/Transit exits, narrow streets near capitols, and tourist corridors to avoid bottlenecking, kettling tactics, and counter-protests. You should expect crowd dispersal tactics to escalate, and situational awareness is critical.



❤️ pants
RESIST!! ✊️