General Discussion

paulkienitz

(1,524 posts) Thu Jun 4, 2026, 04:07 AM 4 hrs ago

longshot prediction: the AI bubble gets popped this month by the SpaceX IPO, so get out NOW

When SpaceX asks for $1.75 trillion and doesn't get it, that might be the moment that the AI stock market bubble stops inflating and starts tipping into a crash. I'm leaving this here just on the off chance that I get to say "called it" later.

But seriously, it's time get out of the stock market. Especially index funds and anything large-cap. My hunch is that this danger has gone from looming to urgent. Start the process of getting out TODAY, if you haven't acted yet.

4 replies

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longshot prediction: the AI bubble gets popped this month by the SpaceX IPO, so get out NOW (Original Post) paulkienitz 4 hrs ago OP

Sold my last 3 stocks. Moved money to a multigraincracker 1 hr ago #1

You may be right edhopper 1 hr ago #2

If the Democrats win back Congress this fall I predict a stock market correction. yardwork 7 min ago #4

There are no crashes anymore. Market is rigged and irrational GreatGazoo 30 min ago #3

multigraincracker

(38,139 posts)

1. Sold my last 3 stocks. Moved money to a

Reply to paulkienitz (Original post)

Thu Jun 4, 2026, 07:02 AM

1 hr ago

Money market account based on gov bonds to protect against inflation. If market crashes, cash will be king. Impossible to pick highs and lows, but there are some things you can do to be ready.

edhopper

(37,566 posts)

2. You may be right

Reply to paulkienitz (Original post)

Thu Jun 4, 2026, 07:04 AM

1 hr ago

But Wall Street has shown itself to be fools when it comes to AI.

yardwork

(69,777 posts)

4. If the Democrats win back Congress this fall I predict a stock market correction.

Reply to edhopper (Reply #2)

Thu Jun 4, 2026, 08:35 AM

7 min ago

They call it a correction. I call it deliberately crashing the market when they can blame Democrats.

GreatGazoo

(4,762 posts)

3. There are no crashes anymore. Market is rigged and irrational

Reply to paulkienitz (Original post)

Thu Jun 4, 2026, 08:12 AM

30 min ago

Looks like only the QQQ will have to buy the SpaceX IPO with a time constraint but even then only in proportion to the float which is low. Morningstar thinks SpaceX will make up less than 1% of the SPY so even if SpaceX became worthless in August the "crash" for those holding passive indexed funds would be less than -1%.

It is a ponzi scheme but so is the whole economy. That's why we have $39 trillion debt. The crypto bubble got Ponzi'd into the AI bubble, eg lots of crypto mining infrastructure got rebranded as "data centers". Crypto is crashing right now but the market isn't.

Losing the Iran war and struggling in Ukraine is driving investment in new weapons systems. "Space" mostly means military systems like satellites, hypersonic missiles and directed energy weapons (DEW). Airplanes and tanks are getting replaced. No expense will be spared.

My prediction: SpaceX is not profitable as is so it will use some of the IPO money to buy related companies that are closer to profit or already in the black: RDW, RKLB, LUNR, RCAT, etc. Many of these have doubled in the last month.

I would not sell SPY and would hold off on buying more QQQ until the dust settles a bit but crashes are now impossible. The stock market is socialism (ironic) for Boomers and the investor class. Investors and banks are the only ones that get bailed out in a downturn (see 2008 and March 2020). They will print enough $$$ to backstop the markets no matter what. I like GLD or GLDM right now. Easy call -- it will continue to rise as oil reroutes and output increases. Shiny rocks.

GLDM will be over $120 by year end, up 30% from right now. Has good support at $85-87 so danged little risk now.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/gldm

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