It's possibly divergent factions. Therefore any deal reached for safe passage can't be trusted, meaning the Strait does not open, meaning the world goes into a deep economic crisis (not to mention fertilizer issues).

Every country they attack is one more who down the road will be willing to force entry/escort tankers etc
Most the Asian countries will have no choice, their countries will grind to a halt sooner or later.

Short of a massive number troops doing a ground invasion and then occupying the entire coastline many miles in, Iran can keep launching against ships. Escorts are not going to work for multiple logistical reasons- notice how they aren't happening?

edited to add- And a ground invasion of Iran means the Gufl's oil and water infrastructure will be obliterated

Guess what? There's no military solution to this. I know certain types of rah rah America- feeling can't abide that idea, but there isn't

There may not be a clean one without any casualties but that is war.

You have the in going/out going vessels hug the Omani side of the straight with escorts, that gives a lot more engagement time plus adds background clutter to confuse targeting and lots of air support over the coast to blast every launcher that launches something and in between to shoot down incomings with the escorts handling anything that gets through.

How are you going to escort 150 ships a day doing that?

Iran has the majority of their launchers still, targeting them with years' worth of munition didn't eliminate them.

The war began feb 28 and none of this has been implemented by anyone. Why would the US even have needed a ceasefire if any of what youre saying is feasible?

And once again- Iran has the trump card. Destroying the oil and water infrastructure of the gulf states.

Basically put Iran back in the Dark Ages.

You obviously wouldn't start with 150 ships a day.
Send some each day and as you get a hand on where the launchers are destroy them.

It's actually an easier problem than then attacking infrastructure cuz that can be ballistic missiles, harder to intercept while the ships will be attacked with cruise missiles and drones both slow and low.

When the US Navy transited the strait earlier this month, they were attacked. Most commercial ships are not risking that, accompanied or not.

Again, if this was feasible, it would be underway now...and Asia already has fuel shortages, where are their ships?

The desperation hasn't started.
And yes they attacked some US destroyers and didn't get any hits.
Attacking unarmed commercial ships and well-armed warships is two different things with slow and low drones.
I bet the CIWS doesn't even break a sweat with those things.

2nd is what about mines?
3rd is convincing people to crew big, slow oil tankers.
4th is it only takes one missile, drone, mine to get through to stop the whole thing.
5th is if there are enough of these arms to occupy a destroyer what is going to protect the oil tanker.
6th Drones can be small enough so that the Aegis Combat System can only see them for about 30 miles. Using SM2's which cost about 2 million each would not be cost effective and the HELIOS Laser is not deployed yet. They have Loitering Munitions/Interceptors and Kinetic & Electronic Warfare but once again it only takes one drone getting through to make all of this too expensive in money and lives.
I could prob keep going.
Its asymmetric warfare something that even we have problems with re pretty much all war from Vietnam on.
The strait will stay closed for as long as Iran wants it to be.

Last edited Fri May 15, 2026, 06:50 PM - Edit history (1)

Starting over the shore/inland with Predators down low with Hellfires/F-15/35's up high with bombs, strike any launchers/launch teams as soon as seen.
Strike all radars and communication nodes & jam all comms in the area making coordinated launches harder to pull off and target acquisition harder.

Mid-way defense Apache Longbows down low & AWAC's up high in the back spotting/sharing targets with A-10's/F-16's etc, missiles for cruise missiles, guns for drones.

Then the Destroyers will start spitting out their Standard Missile-2 (SM-2), SM-6 (over-the-horizon defense), SM-3 (ballistic missile defense), and RIM-162 Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile (ESSM).

At 14 miles out the Mk 45 5" Naval guns starts spiting out 16-20 rounds per minute.
It was already tested against drones in combat with the Houthis in the Red Sea.

Then the CIWZ is up for last ditch defense, typically carries 1,550 rounds, standard engagements last about two seconds, firing approximately 100 to 150 rounds, so 10+- engagements, using the Phalanx Deckloader System, the system can be reloaded in under 4 minutes.

Why would one ship being hit "stop the whole thing"?
During the Tanker War Iran/Iraq (1984–1988) hundreds of merchant ships were attacked and damaged.
Estimates show that over 400 civilian seamen were killed, and 586 commercial vessels were damaged.

Because the US is a Democracy and once a destroyer, jet or helo is hit and the price tag has gone high enough in money and lives the American people and politicians will stop it. Unless you have a good reason to explain it to them since no one has yet been able to. We can tactically win, strategically we cant. Some missiles, drones and mines will get through.

The US has stood for the principal of Freedom of navigation forever.
And without the oil and fertilizer that flows out of the Gulf millions will be either starving or destitute around the world, and Iran should not be allowed to hold the world hostage.

When Japan attacked the US in WWII the US didn't start sinking ships from Canada and Mexico Etc

But it still does not change the fact that there is no political will to do what you want.

they did this after they were attacked by the US and Israel. Twice.

This "And why does that mean ships from Panama & the Philippines etc should get attacked?" Is asking for my opinion which I never gave on that subject. My opinion on this whole thing is that no one should have been attacked and its some supremely stupid shit.

Every country that gets their ships attacked by Iran should declare war on Iran, as killing their sailors and trying to sink their commercial vessels is an act of War.

Once they're at war with 20 plus countries maybe they'll rethink their actions

And I cant find where any from the Philippines has been attacked. What makes you say all of that?
Here is the list of countries.
1.Gibraltar
2.Marshall Islands
3.Liberia
4.Honduras
5.United States of America
6.Malta
7.Panama
8.Bahamas
9.United Arab Emirates
10.Thailand
11.Japan
12.Kuwait
13.Qatar
14.Singapore
15.Greece
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ships_attacked_during_the_2026_Iran_war

15 is certainly not 20 nor very close to 20 plus like you said.
The UAE has 11 corvettes and thats about it as far as their navy. They do have F-16E/F Desert Falcons with a range of about 1,000 miles so they can hit parts of Iran but not very much.

Thailand has a better Navy with 7 Frigates and 5 corvettes. They have a good amount of attack jets but they don't have the range to get to Iran and have no carriers.

Japan has a much larger navy with 8 Frigates and 41 destroyers. They do have 4 helicopter carriers so that would help some.
They have zero large carriers but the do have F35's and could use aerial refueling but that would be a long way 4,773 miles and not feasible. They have zero bombers.

The US has 27 corvettes and 83 destroyers, 1,791 fighters, 11 aircraft carriers, 5,913 helicopters, and 142 strategic bombers.

Japan is about the only one that could help us that wouldnt be a drop in a bucket and that's only with probably about 10-15 destroyers and maybe 2 frigates.
I fail to see how any of that would change the situation very much at all if at all.

It may be flagged in Panama but owned by a Greek company and crewed by Filipinos etc

So,,,

But every country that declared war would expel any embassy seize any assets if any not allow any travel and cut off all trade with Iran.
Be symbolic in most cases just like a lot of countries that declared war on Germany in World War II but the more they do it the more itd bite

The only one that has an embassy is Thailand.
It would "Be Symbolic" but "Once they're at war with 20 plus countries maybe they'll rethink their actions". Because of known symbolic actions with the 15 countries 1 with an embassy they could close. Not 20 plus like you keep saying. I'm sure those symbolic actions would do enough to tip the balance whereas the worlds largest military by a extraordinary large amount didn't. It would be those symbolic ones. Sure.

Enough countries do that it it will be noticed & start to hurt.
I don't think allowing Iran to attack their vessels & kill their sailors should be ignored. YMMV

Change what they are doing it will be the no more commerce, expel all citizens, allow no visits, no sports teams, seize any assets etc from the 15 countries that will work.
But you also try to act like I think that those countries that had their vessels attacked and sailors killed should be ignored. I didnt say that, I dont think that I just think your solutions that you have stated are ineffective, unrealistic and even bad.

Oh wait, they still aren't doing it. And only 4 ships transited yesterday.

I can't really comprehend the confidence of this being a workable plan when no one is doing it.

I guess if you completely ignore little things like ship insurance it seems plausible. But as I said, reality doesn't seem to tally with such wishes.

US will be apologizing to the planet for three generations for what we've caused over the next three years.

With sunken ships than the Strait of Hormuz