General Discussion

Pototan

(3,212 posts) Tue May 12, 2026, 02:39 PM May 12

A 50-foot wall can't stop a 200-foot wave

Look, I hate the redistricting war going on and the Republicans may redistrict themselves into a 5 or 6 seat net redistricting gain. But the polls suggest otherwise when you look at the 435-seat result. And it's not just the polls, but recent elections that convince me. Statewide Governors' races, State Supreme Court elections, State Senate, special Congressional elections and more. The Dems have averaged a plus 12 overperformance in election after election all across the nation.

The most recent generic polls have shown as little as a D+3 (CNN) to a D+15 (Atlas Intel). I'm comfortable with a guess of D+12 if the election was held today. But I think things will get worse for Trump and the Republicans and you can't redistrict a double-digit generic loss to a Congressional majority.

A 50-foot wall can't stop a 200-foot wave.

6 replies

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Highlight:

A 50-foot wall can't stop a 200-foot wave (Original Post) Pototan May 12 OP

What till gas goes up again and we have shortages. BradBo May 12 #1

Here in Texas.... CapnSteve May 12 #2

I think you could be right... I'm cautiously optimistic ... Trueblue Texan May 12 #5

We must be cautious 3825-87867 May 12 #3

right...just get out and do the work. Trueblue Texan May 12 #6

Agreed. But we must act as if this will be a very close election, and pull out all the stops. If we lose the House in Fil1957 May 12 #4

BradBo

(1,062 posts)

1. What till gas goes up again and we have shortages.

Reply to Pototan (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2026, 05:02 PM

May 12

That wave will be heading straight for Mar-a-Lago.

CapnSteve

(413 posts)

2. Here in Texas....

Reply to Pototan (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2026, 05:05 PM

May 12

...redistricting gained them 5 seats, while putting 12 seats from "safely red" to "tossup"

This was before the Trump War and deportations shifting the hispanic vote back into the dem column.

Texas will turn blue this cycle.

Trueblue Texan

(4,615 posts)

5. I think you could be right... I'm cautiously optimistic ...

Reply to CapnSteve (Reply #2)

Tue May 12, 2026, 05:37 PM

May 12

We still have a lot of work to do. Was at an event this morning where I learned turnout for the March Democratic primary was 3 times as large as the last primary in a midterm. I'd say we're making progress.

3825-87867

(2,019 posts)

3. We must be cautious

Reply to Pototan (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2026, 05:07 PM

May 12

We heard all the "good news" in '24 but didn't count on musk's rigging.
Gotta wonder what's up for '26 and I'm sure there's something afoot.
Don't trust Musk, don't trust the White House don't trust the media and sure don't trust any republican!
Not until the day after...if ever!

Trueblue Texan

(4,615 posts)

6. right...just get out and do the work.

Reply to 3825-87867 (Reply #3)

Tue May 12, 2026, 05:43 PM

May 12

Another thing I heard this morning and that I hear quite often is that Democrats aren't doing enough of this or that. Here's something I want everyone to hear: if you feel the Democrats aren't doing enough, or aren't doing enough of the right things, then PLEASE get with the leadership in your local party and HELP! We don't have the time or energy or manpower to fix everything people complain about. If you think we need to do more, ROLL UP YOUR SLEEVES and GET BUSY! We need your support and your understanding that we must put out the most raging fires first, which means getting our candidates elected. Next time you feel the urge to complain, consider it your calling to HELP!

Fil1957

(888 posts)

4. Agreed. But we must act as if this will be a very close election, and pull out all the stops. If we lose the House in

Reply to Pototan (Original post)

Tue May 12, 2026, 05:24 PM

May 12

November, we lose our democracy.

There is NO WAY a Republican controlled House will certify a presidential election in '28 if the winner is a Democrat, regardless of the margin of victory.

The Republican party has been criminalized by Trump. They do not act in good faith, respect norms and in many cases violate the law and constitution. Democrats must use all measures, legally of course, to retake the House, or this 250 year old experiment is over.

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