That page is referencing crude production which is 65 mil but that is not all liquid fuel.
103 million barrels per day consumption is *all* liquid fuel, not just crude.

The AI agents indicate that there is in fact a gap right now but the total gap between total liquid fuel consumed vs produced is more like 1-2 million barrels per day, which would justify the prices going up, but not going up much higher.

I could keep digging through sources and stuff but I'm content to let it rest here, because if the gap WAS not what just ~1-2% then the prices WOULD have gone way higher already.

Now - why the futures are so low against the information above?

Probably traders thinking this situation will resolve itself (but even if it does, there's a lag till the flow is normalized, not even accounting for war damage to oil infrastructure). Or that the Orange Man will somehow fix this (you'd be shocked how many seeming rational business people have assumed he can make things right).

Time will tell; but I have a hunch come July that the folks who bought futures at $100 will be sitting pretty with the right to buy at that price when delivery price is closer to $200.

Might dabble a bit on the commodities futures side in the near future, but likely not oil. Feel like the shock of this (fertilize issues, cost of running equipment, etc) will materialize there a bit later, so still not too early. May get into oil as this drags out - I'm not convinced that Trump can find an off-ramp and that may lure me in.

Just trying to find something else to work with since the market feels overpriced, the bond market will take a hit if Trump installs a lackey willing to drop the rate, gold feels priced up, and with inflationary pressures, cash & equivalents suck.

Copper seems interesting; perhaps other industrial metals. But Wheat, Corn, Soy feel like they'll ripple off oil. No FCOJ though - too risky!

drumpf walks out on stage every day for the last 2.5 months and says "the war is basically over, the straight is open, we have tons of oil" or some gish-galoop hodgepodge of those words and the futures market drops miraculously! Until a few hours later when "oh shit... nothing happened......." and it goes back up... and then drumpf says something and it goes down....... and the lesson i've learned watching this is investments not just in oil futures but stocks in general is based on little more than the mood of the richest people who jerk money in and out of the market and like a flock of birds once they weave so do all the other birds in the flock....

it's annoying how stupid it is