government and nedia are in charge of the messaging.

yes indeed

I think we are already in a recession nationally, although some areas are doing better - or worse. The actual indicators often lag because of the data collection and analysis but the gas price effect is going to show up very soon.
Individually, I am in a depression. This is all overwhelmingly sad and frustrating.

housing, utilities, food, gasoline, and the general cost of living is pretty depressing.

So technically we are not. But job numbers are awful and inflation is hurting every one.
Also the current government numbers can't be trusted.

A recession is when your neighbor is out of work. A depression is when you're out of work.


And - by definition, a recession is 6 consecutive months of decline in national economic output. So we're not there yet. At least technically.

That bubble is the plug in the dam, its the ONLY thing holding back the flood right now.
IF AI companies can't get the high-end chips they need cause you need stuff from the gulf to do that, that pop is ALREADY baked-in, it's just a question of who's gonna pull their capital out first and trigger a panic.

It's a game of nerves now, and I think increasingly the market isn't trusting trump to find a long-term solution.

I'm neither an investor OR an economist, that's just my 2 cents.

Then we don’t have to see negative GDP, just slowing growth for 6 consecutive months? Say, gdp at 3% at start. Then 2.9% next month, 2.4% the following month, and so on?

Much of America has entered stagflation. Low job growth, higher inflation.

The top of the economy is not feeling it at all, though.

There's a solid chance of a recession come 3rd and 4th quarter. The longer the Iran war, the greater the chances. Inflation seems impossible to avoid.

We're experiencing two different economies right now. The lower leg is having no fun at all while the upper leg is looking around going, "Why, did something happen?"

Although gas prices are an incredibly hard indicator to ignore. Even if you're personally doing fine, seeing $6-7 a gallon is a daily reminder that shit ain't goin so great.

But that is about my own emotional state. As for the economy, I don't think we are in recession territory yet because there is still some economic growth. The indicators don't look great though with slowly employment, rising prices, supply shocks, etc.

... Key word: "YET."

But with gas prices as high as they are, the question is not "if" but "when.". And how bad.

I'm looking at the unemployment rates to start climbing around January to April next year, 2027. And it's going to be bad. How bad, depends on how long the fuel prices stay high.

And, we are miles from a depression.
Traditionally, a Depression is a recession at least 10 months long with GDP contraction of over 10% & unemployment approaching 20%.
There are other metrics used, for instance, 1% increase in UE every month for 10 or 12 months (meaning it never hits 20%), or hyperinflation, which we don't have today (or even close).
It's bad right now, but not technically we haven't hit the markers for full recession and certainly not depression.

don't seem to be looking beyond their own naval gazing. We're in an unstable situation.