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applegrove

(132,884 posts)
Tue May 5, 2026, 06:45 AM 8 hrs ago

Trump Is Losing a Second War. The Iran debacle is accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels

Trump Is Losing a Second WarThe Iran debacle is accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels

Paul Krugman

May 5

 https://open.substack.com/pub/paulkrugman/p/trump-is-losing-a-second-war?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=3aksq


Last month, out of more than 11,000 new passenger vehicles registered in Norway, only around 150 had internal consumption engines. The rest were fully electric. In mainland Europe as a whole, EV sales are up 51 percent from a year ago.

The global energy transition — the shift from fossil fuels to electrotech, which uses solar, wind and batteries to power an electrified economy — is accelerating. It’s now clear that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz marks an inflection point: the global green energy curve, which was already on a rapidly rising trajectory, has suddenly become even steeper. “Investors,” reports the Financial Times, “are piling into clean energy funds.”

This acceleration isn’t just a consequence of soaring fossil fuel prices. It is also the result of the worldwide realization that, with the end of Pax Americana, depending on imported hydrocarbons is a risk not worth taking. The United States cannot be relied on to keep sea lanes open when cheap drones can take out an oil tanker or a major pipeline. Even relying on oil and gas from America itself is dangerous, since one never knows when an erratic U.S. government – now under the control of a twice-elected malignant narcissist — will try to use energy as a tool of coercion.

Despite the perversity of its causes, the current acceleration of electrotech is overwhelmingly positive for the world as a whole. It will slow climate change and reduce pollution. It will diminish the power of anti-democratic petrostates and limit the vulnerability of the world economy to disruptions at choke points like Hormuz. It will democratize access to cheap energy sources in places like Africa.


40 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Trump Is Losing a Second War. The Iran debacle is accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels (Original Post) applegrove 8 hrs ago OP
Ahh, yes... LakeVermilion 8 hrs ago #1
My neighbors just bought an EV, spurred by the spike in gas prices. SunSeeker 7 hrs ago #2
When we stop using fossil fuels, all this goes away. All the oil powers are the ones doing ALL of this. Scrivener7 7 hrs ago #3
Since the sun shines and the wind blows nearly everywhere paleotn 5 hrs ago #12
I have had solar and EVs Miguelito Loveless 1 hr ago #29
Chris Hayes had a segment about this last week Deminpenn 7 hrs ago #4
Are oil executives still happy with the Gropenfuhrer? KS Toronado 6 hrs ago #5
Just wait until you see Exxon's profits for this quarter and you will know.... Ol Janx Spirit 6 hrs ago #8
EV trucks? Conjuay 3 hrs ago #23
Yes, they do exist--which is great--but only in very limited capacity at the moment, and scaling... Ol Janx Spirit 2 hrs ago #28
Their joy will be short term Miguelito Loveless 1 hr ago #30
All those things are true, but the oil industry is still looking at a long time horizon... Ol Janx Spirit 43 min ago #37
US oil and Russia are the big beneficiaries. tinrobot 3 hrs ago #24
Reddit is full of threads about EVs right now Johnny2X2X 6 hrs ago #6
Garage kcoates 6 hrs ago #7
You don't...but JPK 6 hrs ago #11
Got it! kcoates 5 hrs ago #15
Depends on the way the houses/streets are configured tinrobot 3 hrs ago #25
So you can charge at home. Johnny2X2X 5 hrs ago #16
I would also point out Miguelito Loveless 1 hr ago #32
Yeah, I will buy lightly used for sure Johnny2X2X 24 min ago #38
Technically, you just need somewhere to plug in Miguelito Loveless 1 hr ago #31
I have a 2019 Chevy Volt JPK 6 hrs ago #9
I buy gas for my Volt about once a year. Thunderbeast 2 hrs ago #27
My wife and I had a Volt Miguelito Loveless 58 min ago #33
Hopefully, maybe EVs will come down in price. mwmisses4289 6 hrs ago #10
New, they can be pricy JPK 5 hrs ago #13
The have been coming down for a while, and used EVs can be a real bargain. tinrobot 3 hrs ago #26
Buy used Miguelito Loveless 56 min ago #34
Doing the right thing wasn't enough to drive transition. hay rick 5 hrs ago #14
Thanks for the OP. We really don't hear much about how TSFs war on renewables and EVs is making wiggs 5 hrs ago #17
Renewables are democratic (small-d). And the future, but petro corps and certain countries will wiggs 5 hrs ago #18
The War in Iran Is Causing China to Sell So Many Solar Panels That Your Jaw Will Drop usonian 5 hrs ago #19
If The US Has All These Pipelines... Mr.Bee 4 hrs ago #20
Because we have the wrong kind of refineries Miguelito Loveless 52 min ago #35
Norway has the population of Dallas. Next year will be Melon 4 hrs ago #21
"internal consumption engines"? Interesting typo. Maybe Autocorrupt? CaptainTruth 4 hrs ago #22
I dipped my toe in with a hybrid. boston bean 45 min ago #36
I wish the blockade on fertilizers would result in a move to organic agriculture MadameButterfly 15 min ago #39
The Law of Unintended Consequences is kicking in... Wounded Bear 40 sec ago #40

SunSeeker

(58,364 posts)
2. My neighbors just bought an EV, spurred by the spike in gas prices.
Tue May 5, 2026, 07:21 AM
7 hrs ago

But they hate Musk, so they bought a Toyota bZ4X. They weren’t the only ones. Toyota’s EV sales surged 139% in March.
https://electrek.co/2026/04/27/toyotas-ev-sales-surge-139-drivers-seek-gas-alternatives/

Scrivener7

(59,990 posts)
3. When we stop using fossil fuels, all this goes away. All the oil powers are the ones doing ALL of this.
Tue May 5, 2026, 07:44 AM
7 hrs ago

I do understand that another group of assholes will find a way to hold us hostage - likely the AI assholes - but wouldn't it be nice to make all of those oil politicians and executives irrelevant?

paleotn

(22,570 posts)
12. Since the sun shines and the wind blows nearly everywhere
Tue May 5, 2026, 09:08 AM
5 hrs ago

their power is reduced. Pun intended. We’re less held hostage to a magic liquid only they can provide. Electricity is produced locally relatively speaking. The price of it can be controlled by local and state utility regulators and not by nameless faceless commodity traders and producers on the other side of the planet.

Miguelito Loveless

(5,862 posts)
29. I have had solar and EVs
Tue May 5, 2026, 01:10 PM
1 hr ago

since 2014/2015. It just freaking works. Heats/Cools/Powers my house, haven't bought a drop of gasoline since 2018.

The energy from our neighborhood fusion reactor just 8 light minutes away provided me with 88 kWh of electricity yesterday.

Quietly, cleanly, cheaply...

Deminpenn

(17,563 posts)
4. Chris Hayes had a segment about this last week
Tue May 5, 2026, 08:03 AM
7 hrs ago

He showed charts of the move away from gas powered to electric cars. He also talked about the advances China has made in fast charging and easy battery replacement. He showed a video of some guy who hooked up an inverter to one of those new small solar panels and charged his car for just the cost of the components.


Then the issue will be one what to do with all the spent batteries.

Ol Janx Spirit

(1,060 posts)
8. Just wait until you see Exxon's profits for this quarter and you will know....
Tue May 5, 2026, 08:54 AM
6 hrs ago

They are probably ecstatic. A disruption to OPEC means their profit margins go through the roof.

At these prices they can actually invest in Venezuela and turn a profit.

If you step back and take a broader look at it, you could argue that the whole reason for this "little excursion" was to make those very oil executives happy by disrupting their competition.

Oil is used in far more ways than just to make passenger cars move around, and it unfortunately isn't going away any time soon regardless of how many EV passenger cars get sold. What you do not see yet are EV 18-wheel trucks, EV passenger jets, EV ocean liners, EV aircraft carriers, etc.--and you can't make plastics out of wind or solar energy.

Ol Janx Spirit

(1,060 posts)
28. Yes, they do exist--which is great--but only in very limited capacity at the moment, and scaling...
Tue May 5, 2026, 12:32 PM
2 hrs ago

...up the use of EV trucks will be more difficult than passenger cars until strides are made in charging, battery quality and capacity, and range--as well as battery recycling, etc.

The effort in Norway is very encouraging, but Norway is roughly the size of New Mexico with roughly the population of South Carolina. Transportation demands in the U.S. are vastly different.

Delivery times are a huge issue for the industry. Building out a network of tractors that can be charged and ready to carry cargo on to the next charging stop could alleviate the issue of long charging times impacting transit times, but that will heavily favor large carriers over independent operators unless they are able to organize effectively. Paradigm shifts are often difficult, but to make EV models work for the trucking industry it will require one.

Hydrogen fuel cells do also show a lot of promise as well.

Our biggest problem at the moment is that we have people in charge that do not want alternate fuel sources to prevail. That is something that needs to change--and it is something we thought was changing which makes it even harder to comprehend.

Coincidentally, much of the technology needed to push the EV field forward depends on things like lightweight plastics which require petroleum to produce.

Our dependence on carbon-based products will persist for quite a while....

Miguelito Loveless

(5,862 posts)
30. Their joy will be short term
Tue May 5, 2026, 01:23 PM
1 hr ago

Long term demand is being destroyed, and once destroyed will never come back. Each EV bought (new or used) means about 500-800 gallons of gasoline not burned in a year. Last year the world bought 20 million EVs, so 1 BILLION gallons of gasoline/diesel demand vanished. EV adoption outside the US is accelerating. Wind/Solar generation exceeded coal last year.

As to Class 8 trucks, yes, you don't see many in this country, but the story is quite different elsewhere. Also, they are being adopted for heavy mining and construction. Heavy electric vehicles can work quietly, without exhaust poisoning the air. Aircraft carriers and submarines are electric vehicles and have lots of batteries, with difference is they draw power from a nuclear reactor. Electric aviation is in the early stages. Electric ferries are popping up in Europe. Hybrid cargo ships are under construction.

Each year, batteries get better, cleaner, cheaper, and safer.

The future economic powerhouse will be an electrostate, not a petrostate.

Ol Janx Spirit

(1,060 posts)
37. All those things are true, but the oil industry is still looking at a long time horizon...
Tue May 5, 2026, 02:22 PM
43 min ago

..on the need for their products.

People in the plastic industry will tell you that oil is too valuable to burn as fuel. Using it as a feedstock for plastics is going to be their future--and one that may well be more profitable than the current model.

Batteries themselves have a number of drawbacks that engineering is overcoming, but we may well land on something different as many alternatives to current battery technology are rapidly being developed.

But we are still living in a world where we may well destroy the planet before we see the end of the oil industry.

Johnny2X2X

(24,380 posts)
6. Reddit is full of threads about EVs right now
Tue May 5, 2026, 08:13 AM
6 hrs ago

A lot of people are making the switch. And the people who already have made the swtich are generally very pleased with their cars.

Of course, the same jack holes are out there pushing the RW talking points about EVs;
They have a higher carbon footprint. They don't.
They are more expensive to charge than gas is. They aren't.
Home owners insurance goes up because of fire risk. It goes down because EVs catch fire at 1/60th the rate ICE vehicles do.
The electricity is produced with coal anyways... We're moving to clean energy in my home state and doing so quickly, 50% of the electricity in this state will have no carbon out put by 2030.

EVs have come a long way i just the last few years. They make sense for anyone with a garage IMO.

JPK

(993 posts)
11. You don't...but
Tue May 5, 2026, 09:02 AM
6 hrs ago

If you live in apartment complex, they may not have charging stations or nearby outside electrical outlets to charge the vehicle.

kcoates

(86 posts)
15. Got it!
Tue May 5, 2026, 09:16 AM
5 hrs ago

No apartment but have never had garage at any of my houses I've owned. Rare in my older neighborhood! Thanks

tinrobot

(12,108 posts)
25. Depends on the way the houses/streets are configured
Tue May 5, 2026, 11:30 AM
3 hrs ago

Some people in my hilly area of LA just park at the curb and run the cable from the house No sidewalks for them, so the car is basically right next to the property. I have seen people run it over sidewalks, they usually do some sort of cable ramp/protector.

We also have street EV charging with the chargers attached to the light/telephone poles.

And, of course, there's always fast chargers. 20-30 minutes once or twice a week.

Johnny2X2X

(24,380 posts)
16. So you can charge at home.
Tue May 5, 2026, 09:18 AM
5 hrs ago

It makes it a no brainer IMO if you have a garage so you can charge at home off peak energy price times. It works for a lot of people without garages too, but being able to charge at home is just so much of a game changer.

And what's ignored in most of those threads is that people with EVs love them. Their satisfaction rate is extremely high and people like the performance and the fact that there's less maintenance. It's really a superior technology right now. Simpler and more robust design, less moving parts, more reliable.

Miguelito Loveless

(5,862 posts)
32. I would also point out
Tue May 5, 2026, 02:05 PM
1 hr ago

that a LOT of EVs from 2022-2023 are coming off leases, so a lot of EVs will flood the zone, meaning for a while at least, prices will be very good. Once things start hitting $6+ a gallon, they will be in high demand.

Johnny2X2X

(24,380 posts)
38. Yeah, I will buy lightly used for sure
Tue May 5, 2026, 02:40 PM
24 min ago

I am an engineer by trade, so I just appreciate more robust design. EVs are more robust. They have less parts, less moving parts, and less assembly time. And the regenerative braking systems basically make brake pads and rotors last forever.

You now have a car that never needs an oil change and almost never needs brake work. And you've got a car with less vibration that wears on all the different parts. They're just simpler. In fact, because they're simpler, I think you've seen makers try to put too much gadgetry into them.

And on the used market, going to be interesting to see what very old EVs are like. Like the EV you give to your kid when they get their deriver's license and their younger sibling then inherits. I bet you're going to have Evs on the road with 300,000 miles, and the battery life is degraded to the point where the range is like 1/3 of its original, which actually might be ideal for parents of teenagers.

Miguelito Loveless

(5,862 posts)
31. Technically, you just need somewhere to plug in
Tue May 5, 2026, 01:26 PM
1 hr ago

Garages make that easy. If you rent an apartment, it can be trickier, though depending on how much you drive (must people drive lass than 35 miles a day) any place you can access a 110v plug means you can charge.

JPK

(993 posts)
9. I have a 2019 Chevy Volt
Tue May 5, 2026, 08:57 AM
6 hrs ago

While it does have an ICE, it powers a generator to supply voltage to the electric drive motor after the battery is depleted, which is around 50 miles depending on the temperature. I rarely drive over 50 miles per day so I rarely use any gas at all. The Volt charges overnight and is fully charged by morning using a 120v outlet. I could have a higher voltage charger to shorten the charge time but it really isn't necessary. The Volt as no range anxiety as you can switch to using the ICE at any time.

Why our domestic auto manufacturers are abandoning EV's is beyond rational thinking while China is leading the way. The world will be driving electric while we are stuck with our polluting gas powered vehicles. Unfortunately, Chevy quit making the Volt in 2019 due to poor sales. Chevy failed to properly promote the Volt so they killed it. I love my Volt and wish Chevy would bring something similar back. I bought it for $17k and could sell it for what I bought it for two and a half years ago. I have saved thousands of dollars in fuel costs.

Thunderbeast

(3,829 posts)
27. I buy gas for my Volt about once a year.
Tue May 5, 2026, 12:13 PM
2 hrs ago

The car keeps track of the age of the gas in the tank and forces me to use it before it gets too stale. My other car is a Toyota RAV4 PRIME (PHEV). It needs gas four or five times a year for road trips. All electric charging comes from rooftop solar.

With my closest gas station now selling regular for $5.75 a gallon, I appreciate electrification of the fleet even more.

Miguelito Loveless

(5,862 posts)
33. My wife and I had a Volt
Tue May 5, 2026, 02:07 PM
58 min ago

for several years, it was our bridge from gasoline to BEVs.

I only burned fuel when I went on vacation, the rest of the time it was just electrons.

mwmisses4289

(4,578 posts)
10. Hopefully, maybe EVs will come down in price.
Tue May 5, 2026, 09:00 AM
6 hrs ago

For many, the cost of an ev is equivalent to a yearly salary, and the monthly payments could be as much as a rent or mortgage payment (depending on where you live).

JPK

(993 posts)
13. New, they can be pricy
Tue May 5, 2026, 09:09 AM
5 hrs ago

I bought my Volt for $17k. It had 45k miles on the odometer. I have driven it for two and a half years and have put just around 17k miles on it since. You can buy used Volts. They were made from 2011 to 2019. They are divided into Gen 1 and in 2016 there was a major update to Gen 2. Low mile Gen 1's can be very affordable as can early Gen 2's.

tinrobot

(12,108 posts)
26. The have been coming down for a while, and used EVs can be a real bargain.
Tue May 5, 2026, 11:35 AM
3 hrs ago

Last year, you could get a really nice 2-3 year old EV with low miles for less than half of retail. Since the oil spike, those prices are creeping back up, but there are still deals to be had.

And new prices are coming down. Used to be $40K to start, now it's $30K.

Miguelito Loveless

(5,862 posts)
34. Buy used
Tue May 5, 2026, 02:09 PM
56 min ago

The prices are much better. You can find some very decent EV like the Chevy Bolt for under $20K.

hay rick

(9,687 posts)
14. Doing the right thing wasn't enough to drive transition.
Tue May 5, 2026, 09:11 AM
5 hrs ago

When the right thing became the economically sensible thing,, it still wasn't enough. Then the orange enemy of the human race came along and suddenly doing the right and sensible thing also became a matter of self-defense.

wiggs

(8,847 posts)
17. Thanks for the OP. We really don't hear much about how TSFs war on renewables and EVs is making
Tue May 5, 2026, 09:38 AM
5 hrs ago

some folks rich while diminishing national security, setting the US behind in technology, lowering energy costs, making energy more one dimensional than it should be, costing jobs in renewables, etc....all within the context of Venezuela and the middle east conflicts.

The WH's push toward petro doesn't make much sense unless you're a petro CEO

wiggs

(8,847 posts)
18. Renewables are democratic (small-d). And the future, but petro corps and certain countries will
Tue May 5, 2026, 09:41 AM
5 hrs ago

squeeze every last dime out of the oil and gas in the ground before allowing us to progress

usonian

(26,299 posts)
19. The War in Iran Is Causing China to Sell So Many Solar Panels That Your Jaw Will Drop
Tue May 5, 2026, 09:53 AM
5 hrs ago

(Repost)

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100221208539

https://futurism.com/science-energy/iran-war-solar-china

The ongoing war on Iran may have drastically reduced the amount of oil passing from West Asia to the rest of the world, but there is a bright side, literally: surging solar panel sales.

According to Yale Environment 360, China has reached a record high for solar panel exports as suppliers scramble for oil alternatives. In March, one month into the US-Iran war that began on February 28, the People’s Republic doubled the number of solar panels it was exporting, distributing 68 gigawatts of photovoltaic cells and silicon wafers.

That’s an astonishing spike across one month — for context, the US has only an estimated 70 gigawatts of new solar generating capacity scheduled to come online across all of 2026 and 2027. According to data from the think-tank Ember Energy, China exported more solar capacity in March alone than the entire nation of Spain installed in the previous decade.

Per Ember, the banner month traces back to increased demand in Asia and Africa in particular. Across all of Africa, Chinese solar imports grew by 176 percent from February to March, while Chinese exports to the rest of Asia reached 39 gigawatts worth of capacity. In all, 55 countries set all-time records for Chinese solar purchases.


Nobel Environmental Prize for choking off the world's oil supply and skyrocketing solar adoption?

Mr.Bee

(1,888 posts)
20. If The US Has All These Pipelines...
Tue May 5, 2026, 10:19 AM
4 hrs ago

Why is gas (where I am) $6.43 a gallon?
I got my Prius on the freeway and set the cruise control @ 55.
People flew past me like I was parked.
conclusion?
Americans love to burn gas and will pay any price to drive fast!
Gas mileage drops fast over 50 mph. Every 5 mph over 50 mph costs more fuel.
Driving 70 mph instead of 60 mph can cost nearly $0.36 more per gallon.
The 55-65 mph range is the best for most cars.
Happy Motoring!

Miguelito Loveless

(5,862 posts)
35. Because we have the wrong kind of refineries
Tue May 5, 2026, 02:13 PM
52 min ago

to refine the oil we drill. Building a refinery is massively expensive, and no one wants one in their neighborhood since they are colossal health hazards poisoning the soil, air and water.

Melon

(1,596 posts)
21. Norway has the population of Dallas. Next year will be
Tue May 5, 2026, 10:37 AM
4 hrs ago

Peak oil for china. That will be the turning point as a large population center reduces demand over time.

boston bean

(36,959 posts)
36. I dipped my toe in with a hybrid.
Tue May 5, 2026, 02:19 PM
45 min ago

The infrastructure is not there imo, to be fully electric in USA. Maybe I am wrong.

MadameButterfly

(4,134 posts)
39. I wish the blockade on fertilizers would result in a move to organic agriculture
Tue May 5, 2026, 02:50 PM
15 min ago

Who knew we were dependent on Iran and the straights of Hormuz and fertilizer from Russia to grow food? If we had organic agriculture these would be irrelevant and it would be better for our health and the planet.

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