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pat_k

(13,783 posts)
Mon May 4, 2026, 11:10 PM 15 hrs ago

That "stubborn" 85% approval among R's is 85% of a shrinking number. Just sayin'

Conversely, the high disapproval -- 90-95% -- among self-identified Democrats is 90-95% of a GROWING number.

Q1 2026 (ABC report of gallup numbers)
25% Republican
43% Independent
30% Democratic

Average across all quarters 2025 (Gallup)
27% Republican
45% Independent
27% Democratic

The difference from the average of all 2025 quarters may not look dramatic, but when looked at in the context of the past 23 years, you can see that the percentage of people who self-identify as Republicans has not been as low as it was in the first quarter of this year since 2013.



How dramatic the move is is seen very clearly when you add R+R leaning I's and D+D leaning I's.



6 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
That "stubborn" 85% approval among R's is 85% of a shrinking number. Just sayin' (Original Post) pat_k 15 hrs ago OP
Sorry, but if one can't see how horrible Republicans have been for decades and NoMoreRepugs 15 hrs ago #1
Exactly. Independents are morons but we'll welcome their vote. mobeau69 15 hrs ago #2
Libertarians are the stupidest ones Picaro 8 hrs ago #6
People don't give up a political identify they have invested a lifetime in easily. pat_k 15 hrs ago #3
yup, the floor has been broken FHRRK1 14 hrs ago #4
I think State Parties, election protection organizations, and us regular folk... pat_k 13 hrs ago #5

NoMoreRepugs

(12,199 posts)
1. Sorry, but if one can't see how horrible Republicans have been for decades and
Mon May 4, 2026, 11:18 PM
15 hrs ago

you identify as an Independent you are clueless in my opinion.

Picaro

(2,425 posts)
6. Libertarians are the stupidest ones
Tue May 5, 2026, 06:45 AM
8 hrs ago

My standard line when someone tells me that they are libertarians is, “ Ah, so you’re an idiot.” That usually gets an interesting reaction.

A dear friend of mine told me that her husband is a libertarian. Can’t remember what exactly I said but it wasn’t complimentary.

Once I pointed out that “libertarianism” is an intellectual dodge even when it isn’t being used as a code word for fascist she came to agree.

Being an independent also can be code for fascist. Often though, this is someone who doesn’t really understand the importance of politics for us all. So they just decide to not decide.

Not morons so much as chronic vacillators.

pat_k

(13,783 posts)
3. People don't give up a political identify they have invested a lifetime in easily.
Mon May 4, 2026, 11:45 PM
15 hrs ago

The migration from Republican to Independent and Independent to Democrat is remarkably fast.

Remember, we are looking at effectively the same "cohort." In other words, the effect is almost all down to movement of people in the current electorate. It is not an artifact of the addition of younger voters or loss of older voters with differing political leanings that takes place when you compare across multiple years.

FHRRK1

(92 posts)
4. yup, the floor has been broken
Tue May 5, 2026, 12:25 AM
14 hrs ago

Look for a 5 point+ additional drop with Repukes in the next 30 days.

Issue is, we don't know what they will try to save themselves.

My guess, something similar to what happened in Isreal October 7th.

pat_k

(13,783 posts)
5. I think State Parties, election protection organizations, and us regular folk...
Tue May 5, 2026, 01:10 AM
13 hrs ago

... have seen so many "unbelievable" things out of these people, we won't be taken by surprise by anything.

I have no doubt that motions are already drafted in the event of attempts to "cancel" in the face of some declaration of a national emergency or in response to some other previously "unimaginable" move they might make. And there is already pre-emptive legislative action and litigation going on. Bills to keep ICE away, etc.

We are SMARTER than they are and very, very, often, when we take them on, we win.

There needs to be a balance between preparing for the worst without spreading immobilizing fears of their awesome power (they are WEAK, not Strong) or fears of some apocalyptic event. We have a highly distributed, robust election system. The shear number of polling places makes it tough to attack. And we know where their efforts will be focused -- population centers, Democratic Party strongholds, and heavily contested races in red states.

It shouldn't be this way, but the most critical thing we can do is make sure the vote against them is so overwhelming that stealing is impossible.

In every state that has early voting or mail in voting, the goal should be to get every voter to cast their vote within the first week. We've got to find ways to encourage people -- especially younger people who tend to procrastinate -- to vote early. For those who vote by mail, VERIFY with whatever tracking is available.

The earlier people vote the better. We can't know what they will pull, but we know that they are most likely to target election day itself, so if there is a way to vote before that, we need to do what we can to encourage people to do that.

And of course, all the usual stuff. Volunteer as a poll watcher, give to the state party and election protection organizations. Every bit helps.

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