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In It to Win It

(12,730 posts)
Wed Apr 29, 2026, 01:56 PM Wednesday

With the VRA gutted, the GOP could target over a dozen Black and Latino House districts

https://www.the-downballot.com/p/with-the-vra-gutted-the-gop-could



On Wednesday morning, the Supreme Court issued its long-awaited decision in Louisiana v. Callais. As many had feared, the decision all but eviscerated the most important remaining pillar of the Voting Rights Act.

As a direct consequence, Republicans in eight states have the chance to gerrymander more than a dozen congressional districts that were drawn to prevent discrimination against minorities—all of which are held by Democrats.

Below, we identify the districts that are most at-risk, and why.

The demise of Section 2 of the VRA, which prohibited states from unlawfully splitting members of racial and language minority groups between electoral districts as a way of diluting their voting power, will have a profoundly adverse impact on voting rights and will make American democracy even less representative than it already is.

And its effects will be felt far beyond Congress. Maps for state legislatures, county boards, city councils, and countless other governmental bodies have, since the VRA’s passage in 1965, all been required to comply with the Act. They, too, risk getting eviscerated in the coming years.

The VRA ruling overturns 1 of Louisiana's 2 Black seats—now the GOP could target both for 2026.

Florida's GOP now has a green light to pass a new map today dismantling the Latino 9th District.

Texas' GOP already targeted 4 Latino seats with their mid-decade gerrymander.

2028 could bring far worse

Stephen Wolf (@stephenwolf.bsky.social) 2026-04-29T15:00:34.947Z

By 2028, the GOP could eliminate more Black Dem VRA seats in:
Alabama: 2
Georgia: 2
Mississippi: 1
South Carolina: 1
Tennesse: 1

Texas could pass *another* map to weaken several Latino seats they targeted in 2026 if Dems manage to still win them.

Some of these states may even try to act this year

Stephen Wolf (@stephenwolf.bsky.social) 2026-04-29T15:00:34.948Z

Gutting the VRA puts enormous pressure on Dems to redraw House maps wherever they can.

Dems may be able to redraw maps by 2028 in 9 states targeting 19 seats currently held by the GOP. I'll share example maps below.

Longer-term, a future Dem Congress & president MUST ban gerrymandering nationwide

Stephen Wolf (@stephenwolf.bsky.social) 2026-04-29T15:05:41.729Z
10 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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With the VRA gutted, the GOP could target over a dozen Black and Latino House districts (Original Post) In It to Win It Wednesday OP
If 2026 is as bad for the GOP as its looking they probably wont have the opportunity to do much of or any of this SSJVegeta Wednesday #1
As long as they control state legislatures, they will. Those are not very likely to change hands In It to Win It Wednesday #2
Usually not. But this is not usually. SSJVegeta Wednesday #3
I wouldn't read too much into special elections DetroitLegalBeagle Wednesday #4
The swings have been much more drastic on the past year Fiendish Thingy Wednesday #8
This message was self-deleted by its author SSJVegeta Wednesday #10
Actually there are projections that control of several state legislatures are likely to change hands in 2026 Fiendish Thingy Wednesday #7
Well, I've only been B.See Wednesday #5
They're still going to lose the house in November Fiendish Thingy Wednesday #6
Is pie in the sky "reality based"? BannonsLiver Wednesday #9

SSJVegeta

(2,992 posts)
1. If 2026 is as bad for the GOP as its looking they probably wont have the opportunity to do much of or any of this
Wed Apr 29, 2026, 01:58 PM
Wednesday

In It to Win It

(12,730 posts)
2. As long as they control state legislatures, they will. Those are not very likely to change hands
Wed Apr 29, 2026, 02:00 PM
Wednesday

SSJVegeta

(2,992 posts)
3. Usually not. But this is not usually.
Wed Apr 29, 2026, 02:10 PM
Wednesday

At least based on recent special elections in state legislatures in deep red districts that flipped blue.

DetroitLegalBeagle

(2,522 posts)
4. I wouldn't read too much into special elections
Wed Apr 29, 2026, 02:17 PM
Wednesday

We saw success in them prior to the 24 election and we all see how that went.

Fiendish Thingy

(23,826 posts)
8. The swings have been much more drastic on the past year
Wed Apr 29, 2026, 02:30 PM
Wednesday

2024 Trump +20 districts swinging 15-30 points towards Dems- that is unprecedented AFAIK.

Nothing can stop the Blue Tsunami.

It’s going to be a bloodbath.

Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #8)

Fiendish Thingy

(23,826 posts)
7. Actually there are projections that control of several state legislatures are likely to change hands in 2026
Wed Apr 29, 2026, 02:27 PM
Wednesday

The Trump-induced, republican-enabled widespread suffering is going to create a lot new Dem voters.

B.See

(8,718 posts)
5. Well, I've only been
Wed Apr 29, 2026, 02:24 PM
Wednesday

posting and waring about Republican attacks on voting rights and what their end game was, for a decade now, even long before coming to DU. Only wish I had a dime for everytime someone showed up to say what couldn't/ wasn't going to happen, won't make any difference, etc. etc.

Fiendish Thingy

(23,826 posts)
6. They're still going to lose the house in November
Wed Apr 29, 2026, 02:25 PM
Wednesday

And gerrymandering won’t affect senate or presidential elections.

If enough courageous dems are elected in 2026 and 2028, and they kill the filibuster and expand the court, then a new VRA can be passed that won’t be overturned.

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