CA-40: Editorial - Only Esther Kim-Varet (D) Can Stop Dual-Republican November Ballot

Tulchin’s poll tested three primary scenarios. In two of them, both Ken Calvert and Young Kim advance to the general election, with Democrats boxed out of a must-win seat. In the third scenario, Esther Kim-Varet advances to face Ken Calvert in the general election. The Esther Kim-Varet campaign is the only campaign to have the resources needed to execute an actual paid communication campaign and advance to the general campaign.

Scenario 1: No substantive paid communication by any Democratic campaign. The Democratic vote splits several ways against unknown candidates, with most voters going only by the names and designations printed on their ballots. Calvert 25%, Young Kim 21%., and Kim-Varet is in a statistical tie with two other Democrats Kerr gets 7%. Calvert 25%, Young Kim 21%. Both Republicans advance to the general election.

Scenario 2: Voters hear all candidates’ biographies. Kim-Varet surges to 21% and takes the Democratic lead. It is not enough. Both Republicans still advance.

Scenario 3: Esther Kim-Varet is the only challenger candidate with a paid-media campaign, communicating her bio and messaging to likely primary voters. Kim-Varet rises to get 30% of the vote. Calvert is statistically tied with Kim-Varet for first place at 29%. Young Kim collapses to 20% and is displaced from November, outside the margin of error. This is the only scenario per the poll in which any Democrat makes the November ballot, and this is the exact scenario now playing out in CA-40. Kim-Varet is the only Democrat in the race with a paid media campaign or the resources to deploy one.

Kim-Varet has more cash on hand today than all other Democrats in the race have raised from external donors combined since they entered this race. Kim-Varet’s first TV ad, produced by ArmourEvans (the firm that advised successful OC challenger candidate Rep. Derek Tran in Orange County last cycle), debuted on April 17 and is now airing across the district. Weekly direct mail is dropping to nearly 50,000 Democratic primary voters, a district-wide text messaging program, 2,500 field signs across CA-40, and 200 trained volunteers are all already deployed, in advance of the start of primary mail-in voting in early May.





https://theliberaloc.com/2026/04/27/only-esther-kim-varet-can-stop-dual-republican-november-ballot-in-ca-40/