General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhere did the rest of the Social Security fund go?
I have been paying into Social Security 1982-2025. The Soc Sec Admin very helpfully allowed me to get a complete download of all my contributions over that time which I set about analyzing.
I took the Standard and Poors 500 (SPX) index results over the same period and normalized those to a %-age increase (or decrease) year over year.
I Took my Soc Sec deductions from pay, plus the employer's contribution for each year and added the gain or loss from the previous year's contribution multiplied by the %-age difference for each successive year.
That gave me a final total of compounded contributions. Or in other words, the putative balance of my "account" if those SS tax deductions had been invested/managed wisely.
If I then amortize that over my current actuarial life expectancy remaining as a form of annuity, I get 6 times the amount PER MONTH for life than SSA is actually giving me.
At the current rate of payout, the value of my account will actually have INCREASED in value by the time I die, and it would take roughly until I'm 125 to exhaust my account.
I should have listened to all those advisors who said invest 10% of your income for life!
But what happened to all that money Soc Sec has been "guarding" for me all my life?
Why is my payout Soooooooo low?
Who is taking that money, and how?
Why, if they are giving me such a low payout, is the fund supposedly going to be out of money in 2030-something?
Fiendish Thingy
(23,529 posts)Because there were way more boomers working than retirees, the SS fund was solvent.
Now, there are way more Boomers drawing benefits in proportion to those currently making contributions. (Lifting the cap on withholding would solve that for the foreseeable future)
Also, I think you have drastically overvalued the growth of your contributions as if they were in an annuity.
Yes, you should have, because SS was never designed to be ones sole source of income in retirement.
dickthegrouch
(4,588 posts)So it actually is the Ponzi scheme that some GOP'ers state?
I think you have drastically overvalued the growth of your contributions as if they were in an annuity.
That's exactly how I was viewing it. Why isn't it (an annuity)?
I never got as far as 10% independent savings, for multiple reasons, but I never expected SS to be my sole source of retirement income either.
But just for clarity over most of my lifetime that would have meant 20% of my income as savings (10% independent, and 10%+ of SS) which should most certainly have left me with a MUCH more comfortable feeling than I have currently for the future of my finances.
Gore1FL
(22,967 posts)The GOP calls it a Ponzi scheme because they dont want to pay back the money they borrowed to give tax cuts to billionaires. If they confuse people into thinking it is something other than the social safety net that it was designed to be, they will have a better chance of robbing it blind.
Fiendish Thingy
(23,529 posts)Ponzi schemes are dependent on the voluntary contributions of the lower tiers of the pyramid to support the upper tiers.
SS, with just a few exceptions, is funded by mandatory contributions from both employees and employers.
Except you didnt contribute 10% of youre income, it was only 6.2% (for an apples to apples comparison, you cant include your employers contribution).
dickthegrouch
(4,588 posts)Their 6.2% contributions were added to the value of the company-paid health insurance and many other benefits that they crowed about when giving me excuses not to give me raises that I thought I should have earned!
These are largely rhetorical questions, but based on even my profound lack of understanding of how these things are supposed to work.
What is the difference between a social safety net and a savings account when its billions of dollars at stake? Is SS not investing anything? Presumably they cant fund treasury bonds with it because then it would not be independent.
Fiendish Thingy
(23,529 posts)A self funded annuity would only contains funds you have discretionary control over, which would exclude your employers contributions.
dickthegrouch
(4,588 posts)Is that SS should have been a (compulsorily) "self" funded annuity. Essentially with similar rules and penalties to taking early distributions from a 401K.
But managed properly, at scale, by an independent agency of the government.
I'd be perfectly OK with some of those trillions being used to fund less fortunate people, unable to work, or for single-payer health care. Especially if we add those healthcare premiums we (and our employers) are currently paying from salary (and benefits), into the SS fund mix.
Thisnk of this thread as a proposal for another possible part of the solution to pathetic payouts to be implemented when saner minds control the economy. As well as a valid question as to what is really being done with those trillions collected in mandatory contributions, because the math doesn't work on the SSA's side either, by any putative savings, interest rates, or distribution calculations I can come up with.
Fiendish Thingy
(23,529 posts)Something a 401k cant deliver.
ProfessorGAC
(77,021 posts)In a Ponzi, investors are unaware that the actual investment instrument is a fraud & that their early payouts are funded by lower layers of the pyramid.
Social Security has never pretended to be anything other than a pay-as-you-go program
Your investment analysis is also flawed. Here's why:
If everyone were to do exactly as you say, there'd be another $16-18 trillion chasing investments; every year.
This creates stock inflation until the institutional investors start a sell-off when the prices of EVERY exceeds value from market fundamentals.
Suddenly tens of trillions of value gets realized which causes a bubble collapse. Your proposed return is highly unlikely to come to fruition that were to occur.
Smokster
(29 posts)Historically and technically true, but conservatives and the right have been having a field day with that for years while pushing the "personal responsibility bootstrap narrative." That shit is hauled out in every right-wing push to cut benefits and raise the retirement age further. The left should be talking about raising benefits, expanding Social Security, and lowering the retirement age. Not buying into the right-wing narrative. "We" can't afford that is not a legitimate argument when trillions are being funneled into the war machine, political pork, corporate government grift, Wall Street schemes, and on and on. A supposed government of the people has become nothing other than a vehicle for funneling wealth to the top 10-20 percent of the economic pyramid while the majority can eat shit and die in retirement after a lifetime of toil. The rest of all political posturing is noise to distract from that fact.
Rebl2
(17,858 posts)used it and put ious in the social security pot, which they have never paid back, way back in the 1990s.
Igel
(37,570 posts)The IOUs are called "special issue Treasury Bills" and many have been redeemed as the 'trust fund' needed to supplement on-going revenues. And until they're needed, for that purpose, there is no need or even excuse for pulling money out of them.
Another part of the puzzle is that the T-bills are conservative in nature. They are not pegged to any market; they are a monopoly, issued by the government, for a monopsony, the government. Public-issue T-bills increase, these are pegged at the same interest rate.
They vastly underperform the stock market. On the other hand, they are considered safe. Unlike public T-bill market--also considered safe--there is no demand-side chances of a rate increase.