GMAFB.

Democrats are trouncing Republicans in state elections since Trump took office

snip****

Democrats have flipped 28 Republican-held seats in state legislatures across the country over the past 14 months, a sign that the GOP is indeed at risk of losing control of the House, and maybe even the Senate, in the midterms.

Democratic wins have come even in deep red states, including Texas, Arkansas and Mississippi, and often by margins that make Republican leaders uneasy.

“I’m ringing the alarm bell,” said Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas GOP consultant who has run campaigns for Republicans in the state, including Sen. John Cornyn and Rep. Dan Crenshaw.

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/12/dems-flip-28-state-legislature-seats-in-trump-2-0-00827125

hattip: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100221093690

Good Night

As I read it, CNN does not necessarily think the choice is the lesser of two evils. But those polled who are described as "double haters" certainly do.

They make up about a quarter of the electorate, having an unfavorable view of both parties. That's the voters being polled, not the people polling.

Like it or not, this is the group of voters who have the greatest impact on elections. And if they vote for Democrats by a 31-point margin, that's a very plausible explanation of why Democrats are winning and/or overperforming in all these off year and special elections over the 12 months.

It was late last night and I obviously didn't get it.

Those "double haters" need to step away from wherever they're getting their info about Dems, and get back to Reality.

Carry On

They are voting with us now as a check on Trump.

... regardless if they are politicians themselves, celebrities, orgs, etc. --- yet they'll leap at the opportunity to amplify the false message of "both are the same" and/or "don't-vote to send a message" and/or "leave it blank" and/or "vote uncommitted" and or "vote third party".

This messaging is something that, when a shit-stirrer like CNN does it, is not surprising. When a political ally does it (depending on the ally) it ranges from being totally expected to being a surprise and great disappointment. In all cases, it strikes me as being something quite foolish and self-serving rather than something that moves us closer to the goals and values that we (supposedly) all share.

I thought a double hater would be someone who hates trump as much as two people. That would be me.

It's not so much a matter of hate as disappointment
though.

I have never voted for a a Republican, but some of my liberal
new deal views have not been represented for awhile.

meaning they don't lean to either party. This group is always about 25% of the electorate in every election. Trump has won this group in 2016 and 2024. Biden won them in 2020.

This is a statistically significant group of voters and if they break this substantially in 2026, it's lights out for the Republicans.

I've met a lot of people who haven't the slightest idea what's going on in the real world; they're proudly ignorant, totally apathetic, or usually just plain stupid. These folks typically don't vote, but if they do, it's usually for some rightwing neanderthal who appeals to their basest instincts.

they don't lean one way or the other or at least can't be decerned by the pollsters' questions.

They tend to have an unfavorable view of both parties (or both candidates, depending on the poll).

I used to watch those "undecided voter" panels the major networks would set up just before major elections. The ones where serious news anchors would gather together a bunch of "regular folks," people who (supposedly) still didn't know...three days before a presidential election...who they were going to vote for, because they just "hadn't heard enough from each candidate," or they were "waiting to make a choice at the last minute," or they felt "Democrats and Republicans were both the same" (equally bad).

Those stupid "undecided voter" panels always made me crazy. I suppose there are people who refuse to answer pollsters' questions honestly when asked, telling them they're "pure independent" or "completely undecided" because they have "unfavorable views about both parties." Still, I don't believe 25% of likely voters feel this way.

In 2024, 155,201,157 million votes were cast in the presidential election; 75,019,230 voted "D" (48.34%), 77,303,568 voted "R" (49.81%), and 2,878,35 voted for "other" (1.85%). The vast majority of likely voters make up their minds to vote either "D" or "R" long before election day, despite how much they said they hated both parties.

They're not entrenched in Red Team vs. Blue Team. So when they vote, it's usually based on whatever is going on at the moment, what's happening with their wallets, what particular brew of policies or perceptions are reigning in their world.

Social media is a terrible place to get a sense of them, because social media are at the heart of the partisan bunker.

I know plenty of non-partisan people - and I'm pretty close to being one myself. Many of them are plenty informed. Just not political junkies (which I'd argue does not mean informed, particularly when that "information" is coming from highly biased sources interested in narrative over facts and context).

There are a lot - a lot - of people who are not very fond of our party who still pull the lever for us. Hell, I'm downright sick and tired of the gerontocratic hierarchy and the inability of a consultant class to just read the fucking rest of the country for once, but here I am voting blue over and over.

And we've not touched on a growing Left of young people who are increasingly disenchanted with the out of touch political class who they mentally file with the billionaires given how much the system benefits them (and their families, cousins, friends, hangers on, etc. No no, they're just really amazing at the stock market, you guys).

They're winnable votes. But our electoral strategy hasn't been geared to winning them. And partisans don't want our strategy to be geared toward that. They want their already-in-the-bag-no-matter-what votes to be the sole arbiter of policy and messaging.

It's working great!

That doesn't immediately impact their situation or otherwise serve them.
When I'm feeling charitable, I call them people that are clinically depressed or too busy trying to survive to pay much attention to anything else.

But more and more, it's that I see "independents" are living in a personality reality bubble of entertainment / work / home and really don't want to be bothered with anything they don't personally interact with.
National policy? International policy? What does that have to do with the cost of their living?

start your own party. Do some hard work and change things. Probably too many of those 25% just like to bitch and moan about everything. Nothing is ever gonna be good enough.

unrealistic to expect a pony!" and "enjoy the camps!", *and still seeing those reluctant voters break for Democrats*, why are people mad that those voters don't love the party?

...they would do everything in their power to make sure Republicans never win another election again.

Biden only canceled $10,000/$20,000 in student loans, Trump is committing war crimes everyday on behalf of Israel in a new foreign war, ho hum, both sides are the same!

Providing checks and balances needs to be the key theme for Dems this Fall. Even a lot of Republicans will vote for Dems with that idea in mind.

In 2016 Trump beat Hillary with this group. In 2020, this group favored Biden. In 202, back to Trump.

This quarter of the electorate seems to vote against the incumbent party. At least, that the pattern.