And it would do well in New Hampshire

That poll is way too close for comfort. So far, Dems are failing to make the Trump stank stick to other Republicans.

went to everyone. It was a glossy flyer with a picture of Sununu and Epstein (not together) among other photos and cited mentions of Sununu's name in the Epstein files released so far. Forget what organization sent it, but it must have left a mark.

Let’s do it, Democrats. 💪🏻

We need 218 seats in the House and 51 in the Senate for simple majorities. This means we need 3 more seats in the House and 4 more in the Senate than we currently have. Yes, having more would be nice, especially in the House and because of Fetterman in the Senate. In the House, I think we win anywhere between 8-15 seats. In the senate, I like our chances of holding onto GA, NH, MN and MI at this point. I think we have a good chance of winning Maine, North Carolina and Ohio (Yes, only because Trump is unpopular atm). That puts us at 50. Peltola in Alaska is interesting considering Trump's negatives. We need 51. Alaska? Texas? Iowa? South Carolina? Florida? We only need 1 of the 5. This could all change tomorrow.

But I'm less confident about Ohio given Brown already lost and how red the state has gotten. But as you note, Trump is underwater.

as for Brown in Ohio? Who knows. Trump is not popular at the moment in Ohio but we will see

And some of these other names I’m unsure about (particularly Alaska) how they’d vote in some important areas.

But we fight elections with the Democrats we have, not the ones we would choose.
(paraphrasing Donald Rumsfeld, war criminal).

Senate will be tough, but even if we just get to 50, 2028 is a much more favourable landscape for Dems in the senate, and we should be able to add to that number easily.

Name one Democratic piece of legislation he voted against? Here's a hint. There isn't one. He didn't oppose any democratic initiatives when they held the majority.

pragmatically we need 52 minimum for voting. Fetterman. We also have to consider he may actually switch sides, formally.

Sorry, I didn't mean to step on toes. I responded before reading all of the replies. Just mark me down for 52.

If it's that close.

Dems currently have a 91% likelihood of maintaining that seat.

Ohio is an open seat.

Georgia we're on defense

Kentucky is an open seat

Texas and Florida are long shots, but. . .

We need five seats since Fetterman has turned into Sinema.

Fetterman never voted against any democratic proposed legislation when the Democrats were in the majority.

showed me what I needed to see. Before that, I supported him 100%.

if he had voted the other way. That was voting for mullin in committee. It was an awful vote, but it was only one. Many people here act like he's done that dozens of times. To be clear, I don't support him at this point, but he has been nowhere near Sinema and Manchin territory in terms of his votes having a significant impact on the results.

By the way, I live in PA too and don't plan on voting for him again. What I think is ridiculous though is the idea that Fetterman's bad votes have changed the results. Outside of that one vote, His bad votes have always been in situations where it was ultimately irrelevant which way he voted. Things passed or were defeated by Republican votes.

Voting against the Constitution is a bridge too far for me. He has become Trump's favorite Democrat.

Even more significantly, Sinema caused numerous bills to bill watered down such as the Infrastructure bill. Fetterman has never done that once.

clause in Article 1 with Republicans.

May 26th is the runoff date.

It will either be Cornyn or Paxton.

currently rates Democrats chances of winning these races as follows:
(Highlighted races would be flips)

North Carolina 85%
Georgia 79%
New Hampshire 75%
Michigan 72%
Ohio 67%
Maine 62%
Alaska 43%
Texas 36%
Iowa 24%
Florida 23%

https://www.racetothewh.com/#google_vignette

or one of the others (Iowa, Florida or South Carolina) Who knows, with the way Trump is performing we may get more! That would be nice.

I think the chances in all those states will continue to grow. Will Democrats ultimately get the 4 net flips they need? At this point, the odds are still against them. But check back in 3 months. At that point, I could definitely see Democrats being favored to flip 4 or 5 seats.

All that support will collapse when voters focus and Collins starts pulling those cards out.

It looks encouraging for us.