One of my fav forecasters assured everyone into mid-February that new highs were ahead. This is not a rosy-scenario guy, this is a market technician focusing on charts ... see what that gets you. Now a real technician is saying bounce imminent. I don't think they have any methodology to factor in the impact of the war. So far, fertilizer and lithium are in short, short supply. These will result in meager harvests and escalating price wars for scarce materials. Imaging shopping a year from now ... how are we going to stock shelves with shipping, pricing of raw materials, harvests, output all in uncertainty? I'm sorry, I'm thinking more 1943 than 2009 or 2020 ... prepare for high prices and lean pickings.

He and his administration are just not capable. Wait till someone leaks the rest of the epstein files, or maybe he bombs Cuba, or he actually sends troops INTO Iran and body counts climb, or when he starts to manipulate the FED later this year, or any of the hundred other things.... Trump is an idiot. He's been propped up by rich repubs but sooner or later they are going to see the crazy and pull back to protect they money. That's when trump will stand alone and when the real damage starts. Look at the other article today someone posted about maga at cpac cheering for trump's impeachment.

He's probably going to pull some shit tonight or tomorrow that will fuck everything up further.

Needs to keep the protests off the news and get things back to him ("ME ME ME" )

Look for a major newsmaking offensive push

+10.4% a year. As we sit right now, in the last 14 months under Trump we're at +5%. Pathetic returns.

Trump has destroyed the economy. The jobs numbers spell doom for working people and it's only going to get worse.

if, like 2008, we are headed for a big crash that will take years to recover.

I really do hope I'm wrong.

because it omits funding for ICE, which is very selfish.

Now to my understanding ICE has sucked up monies from FEMA and other federal departments.

And they were going to let it sit 2 weeks?

And they are in DC stuffing their pockets faster than the Fed can print it.

Yes, Trump is sowing chaos and destruction, and the market is reacting to that.

But I won’t start to worry unless a sell off gets large enough to trigger the automatic trading shutdown software, as happened in 2008 (and my portfolio survived that crash and recovered lost ground quicker than the Dow did). I don’t believe a trading shutdown has happened since then.

This is a correction already. Bear market next stop.

Bear market is -20%

A correction has been expected since Biden was in office.

Spring 2025 drop was between 15-20%, IIRC, and recovered by the end of the year.

I agree that corrections aren’t generally things to fret about, but each one should be taken as its own thing while being mindful of historical trends. Like the pandemic era crash, there are historically unique factors at play here for the US. 2025 is not 2026, although the market appeared resilient in the face of oppressive and somewhat arbitrary tariffs. It’s okay to hear different takes on this because undue market enthusiasm is one reason why markets get overpriced in the first place. The NYSE has had a great run, but as they say past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. At some point the optimists will be wrong, but I hope that’s still down the road a bit.

And ultimately that’s what will drive a Bear market.

to your rational and even keeled posts.

on fire year after year lately because of FOMO -- others are working it and they musn't be left behind, they'd never catch up!

Fear, of course, is not wise. The results have been spectacularly mismatched to the price paid.

Well, at some point they need to get over the FOMO and find a scapegoat for their misguided profligacy. The Dotard and his fuel/fertilizer/security/etc crisis is as distracting of a scapegoat as they will ever find. The iron is hot.

I am hesitant to expect them to take this offramp. But it is right there in front of them.

Just wait till the AI bubble goes kaboom when the gulf states stop throwing money into it.

They’ll go broke along with the rest of us

Republican lawmakers and voters can go down with that.

But I think with troops on their way and Kegseth ordering up 10,000 more troops and consumer confidence is tanking and inflation is rising.
Plus with OpenAl closing its video creation business Sora and it was announced this morning that SoftBank gave a $30 billion dollar short term, unsecured loan for OpenAI that will come due next year.
Nothing about that is good.

Krasnov tried to manipulate the market last night, and it didn’t work today; instead, down a little under 2% today.

brother can you spare a dime"

Circuses and amusement parks aren't just un-serious places, they are EXPENSIVE...

The admission, the concessions, the gift shop, the everything.

And no swing voter saw that coming... astonishing. They are as much clowns as Trump.

To open the strait. Every day it's closed is like a week behind in oil shipments the world gets. That reality is going to hit hard.

and if it will ever reach the level of the hype remains to be seen (the cost/benefit may never be there, massivly $$$$ and resource hungry). Right now it is solely a giant FOMO cash grab. It will continue like this as long as there is still cash to grab, then KA-BOOM!

ago. Worried about taxes on the capitol gains, but it didn’t hurt like I thought it would.
Now I’m betting on inflation. Got a money market tied to inflation.
Now we are planning on yearly vacations to great places.

nad probably not while there are still billions from taxpayers to be sopped up by data centers that will never be fully functional due to power constraints and built in obsolescence.

This is about some investors who have noticed that Fatso and his gang usually do their stupidest things--blanket tariffs, bombing Iran--on Friday night to avoid a panic in the stock market the next day. On the table: an incredibly ill considered and undoubtedly poorly planned invasion of coastal Iran by amphibious forces. That could happen tonight or they could wait until all forces are in the area, another week or two. The stock market Chicken Littles are correct, though, it will probably happen on a Friday.

took office. I planned accordingly. I'm surprised we've made it this far.

The fact that the AG sat in a testimony on Epstein and was bragging about the Dow and that was essentially the top of the market is so fitting and hilarious.

Didnt the felon just say he was happy and things were going so well because the market
hadn't gone down that much and that inflation was under control?

Friday's market should have dispelled him of this idea and, if not, perhpas Mondays market will.

I am off to No Kings today

Lets see the the felonious taint-stain does about it.