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Renew Deal

(85,029 posts)
Sat Mar 14, 2026, 04:36 PM Saturday

Would China invade Taiwan if the US invades Iran?

Assuming that that US invades Iran with significant numbers >100,000 soldiers, would China take the opportunity to invade Taiwan? In my opinion, there would be no better time. The US would be busy with a complex middle east war and Trump is not really committed to protecting Taiwan. He's even refused to comment on it when asked twice recently:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3300292/donald-trump-declines-say-whether-us-would-defend-taiwan-attack-mainland-china

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/2/trump-says-xi-assured-him-china-wont-take-action-on-taiwan

5 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Would China invade Taiwan if the US invades Iran? (Original Post) Renew Deal Saturday OP
Their plans for that are probably similar irrespective of US ground forces. RockRaven Saturday #1
China can't invade Taiwan at a drop of a hat DetroitLegalBeagle Saturday #2
True, but that doesn't mean that Trump would defend Taiwain Renew Deal Saturday #3
I doubt we care under current management OC375 Saturday #4
big difference... Taiwan is armed to the teeth and China might actually FAIL in an invasion. WarGamer Saturday #5

RockRaven

(19,206 posts)
1. Their plans for that are probably similar irrespective of US ground forces.
Sat Mar 14, 2026, 04:43 PM
Saturday

Their preparations are mostly naval and anti-naval in nature, as those will be the critical force projecting tools. And frankly, it sounds like where our naval forces are positioned isn't going to make much of a difference anyway. The Dotard won't try to stop them (and many other PsOTUS would not either) because there is no appetite for tens of thousands of dead American sailors on top of losing basically all microchip manufacturing; they'd rather smile and make nice to keep access to chips in the short term.

DetroitLegalBeagle

(2,499 posts)
2. China can't invade Taiwan at a drop of a hat
Sat Mar 14, 2026, 04:45 PM
Saturday

it would require weeks, if not months, of build up that would be very obvious. Any invasion will likely come during a "training exercise" so they can try to explain the build up of troops and equipment on that. Which is why Taiwan always goes on a heightened alert during any PLA training near the island.

OC375

(818 posts)
4. I doubt we care under current management
Sat Mar 14, 2026, 05:15 PM
Saturday

That said, Taiwanese are as tough as anyone. Taiwan won’t be free of cost. I’m sure it would be the end of trade with China, and we’d probably instead just close the deal on VZ, etc…

“The 2000’s - new Guilded Age, or new Age of Empires? You be the judge!”

WarGamer

(18,566 posts)
5. big difference... Taiwan is armed to the teeth and China might actually FAIL in an invasion.
Sat Mar 14, 2026, 05:26 PM
Saturday
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