Newsweek: Who Will Win Tennessee Special Election? What Polls Show 3 Days Out

https://www.newsweek.com/tennessee-special-election-polling-11118599

Published Nov 29, 2025 at 05:00 AM EST updated Nov 29, 2025 at 05:36 AM EST

By Kate Plummer
Senior US News Reporter

The Republican Party is likely to win the Tennessee special election, though perhaps by a tighter margin than initially expected, according to latest polls.

Aftyn Behn, a state legislator, is standing against Republican Matt Van Epps to fill a seat left vacant by former Representative Mark Greene, who resigned from the House earlier this year.

Polls, betting odds and political analysis indicate Van Epps will likely win the seat but there have been signs that support for Behn is growing.

"Public polling in a low-turnout special election around the Holidays is unreliable and inaccurate," a Van Epps spokesperson told Newsweek. "What is clear: there are more Republicans than Democrats in this district and all efforts remain focused on reaching, motivating, and turning out Republicans to vote today or on Tuesday, December 2nd. The smaller number of Democrats in this district are intensely fired up, but as more Republicans tune in and understand the stakes of the race and the craziness of the Democrat nominee, momentum has shifted toward Trump-endorsed Matt Van Epps. He will win on Tuesday, December 2nd."

FULL story at link above.


Left: Republican candidate Matt Van Epps and Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn speaking in November at respective campaign events in the special election for the seventh congressional district in Nashville, Tennessee. (Associated Press/George Walker IV)