Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Celerity

(52,139 posts)
Fri Sep 26, 2025, 04:56 AM Yesterday

Nigel Farage's Reform on brink of outright majority at next election, major new poll says. Disastrous polling for Labour

comes amid growing questions over Keir Starmer’s leadership of the party

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-uk-nigel-farage-keir-starmer-polling-b2834138.html

Nigel Farage is on track to become Britain’s next prime minister, with a major new poll showing the party is close to having enough support to form a majority government if an election were held today.

The seat-by-seat YouGov poll, the second such poll since the election, indicates the party has extended its lead over Labour, significantly increasing Mr Farage’s chances of entering Downing Street in 2029.

It suggests Reform would increase its MPs from just five to 311, making it the largest party in a hung parliament and just 15 seats short of the 326 needed for an outright majority. In June, the last time YouGov conducted a seat-by-seat poll, it put Reform on track to have 271 MPs.

The multi-level regression and post-stratification poll (MRP) showed Labour would lose 267 of the seats it won in 2024, putting the party on just 144 MPs. This is down from the 178 MPs YouGov predicted they would win in their last MRP poll.

snip


YouGov MRP shows a Reform UK government a near-certainty if an election were held tomorrow

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/53059-yougov-mrp-shows-a-reform-uk-government-a-near-certainty-if-an-election-were-held-tomorrow



snip

15 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Nigel Farage's Reform on brink of outright majority at next election, major new poll says. Disastrous polling for Labour (Original Post) Celerity Yesterday OP
What is causing this disaster? synni Yesterday #1
General disillusionment with existing major parties. A tendency towards xenophobia. muriel_volestrangler Yesterday #3
Plus huge media coverage - see this article by Simon Wren-Lewis muriel_volestrangler Yesterday #5
Please don't be as stupid as the U.S. mwmisses4289 Yesterday #2
There were British people wearing MAGA hats when Trump was visiting newdeal2 Yesterday #4
Someone is spending big crypto to make this happen. Hugin Yesterday #6
2029 is a long way off although Deminpenn Yesterday #7
I'm starting to wonder how humanity has managed to survive at all. tanyev Yesterday #8
Left-wing parties in Europe always overplay their hand biocube Yesterday #9
Of course, this is the correct answer. Fix The Stupid Yesterday #12
Joe Biden and the Democrats did work to fix karynnj 7 hrs ago #14
Yes!! The Mouth 7 hrs ago #13
The post in question said to punch trans women "in the balls" muriel_volestrangler 6 hrs ago #15
Labour also alienated the anti-AI vote they should have had by pandering to the AI bros and ending highplainsdem Yesterday #10
The media here is as complicit... róisín_dubh Yesterday #11

muriel_volestrangler

(104,824 posts)
3. General disillusionment with existing major parties. A tendency towards xenophobia.
Fri Sep 26, 2025, 06:55 AM
Yesterday

The kind of thing that caused Brexit, though those who say they'll voter Reform are stupid enough to not learn the lesson of Brexit - that believing Farage's ideas would be better rather than worse is a recipe for failure.

Which pretty much parallels the USA, and its second election of Trump.

muriel_volestrangler

(104,824 posts)
5. Plus huge media coverage - see this article by Simon Wren-Lewis
Fri Sep 26, 2025, 07:42 AM
Yesterday

who is a respected economist and political commentator (maybe the closest the UK has to Paul Krugman - but, you know, no Nobel):

On Monday 22nd September I watched a party political broadcast on behalf of Nigel Farage’s Reform Party. It was on the BBC, and it was entitled ‘News at Ten’. Unfortunately that news bulletin is no longer available on the BBC's website, so all I can do is give you a flavour of what it was like.

It starts 16 minutes into the bulletin, with Chris Mason, Political Editor of BBC News, interviewing the leader of the Liberal Democrat party, Ed Davey. The Liberal Democrats are having their party conference, so this is a chance for its leader to make a relatively rare appearance (see below) on the news, and perhaps explain what the Liberal Democrat’s policies are, or what their political aims are. But Chris Mason had other ideas.

“Do you feel a moral duty to keep Nigel Farage out of power” is his second question. His third is “You say that Nigel Farage gets too much attention, but ...” He holds up a little figurine of Farage that he bought at the conference.”... You are obsessed with him, aren’t you? Frightened even.” And so it continues, with pretty well every question from Mason being about Reform. Finally he takes on Davey’s claim that the BBC is giving too much uncritical airtime to Farage, and accuses Davey of behaving like Donald Trump! Mason’s summing up at the end is about Nigel Farage.

This segment was then followed by the man himself, with Farage announcing a new policy to remove settled status from immigrants who have been in the UK for a number of years. Despite apparently discussing the Farage policy, the BBC failed to say clearly that there was no basis to his claim that this would save public money.

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/farage-and-bbc.html

("Party Political Broadcasts" are the short segments that public service broadcasters must give to major political parties every few months for them to use as they want (paid political ads being banned on British TV))

The BBC, and other TV news, try to justify their extensive Reform coverage by saying "yes, they may have very few MPs, but they're very strong in the polls". But this has become a self-fulfilling prophesy. If the coverage is "Reform is getting popular", then, in a time when no party has particularly strong positive support for "these are the polices we need", then discontented voters go to wherever they hear other discontented voters are going.

mwmisses4289

(2,316 posts)
2. Please don't be as stupid as the U.S.
Fri Sep 26, 2025, 06:21 AM
Yesterday

Putting one of the guys who did brexit back in power? One of the guys who trashed your standing in the E.U.? Are you guys barking mad?

newdeal2

(4,203 posts)
4. There were British people wearing MAGA hats when Trump was visiting
Fri Sep 26, 2025, 07:42 AM
Yesterday

Mainly a lot of anti immigrant feelings.

So yes, I think they and other European countries are about to go through some things.

Hugin

(36,900 posts)
6. Someone is spending big crypto to make this happen.
Fri Sep 26, 2025, 07:48 AM
Yesterday

I figure one of the first targets is the NHS. Can’t have that bad example lurking about.

Deminpenn

(17,015 posts)
7. 2029 is a long way off although
Fri Sep 26, 2025, 07:55 AM
Yesterday

I understand the prime minister can call "snap" elections.

biocube

(140 posts)
9. Left-wing parties in Europe always overplay their hand
Fri Sep 26, 2025, 08:09 AM
Yesterday

Your job is to fix the economy after right-wing parties messed it up, not arrest people for social media posts.

Fix The Stupid

(987 posts)
12. Of course, this is the correct answer.
Fri Sep 26, 2025, 10:00 AM
Yesterday

Expect much pushback and attempts to hide your post...

This place does not like ugly truths.

Never used to be this way. You could have discussions about this, but we jumped the shark here a long time ago...

Good luck.

karynnj

(60,565 posts)
14. Joe Biden and the Democrats did work to fix
Sat Sep 27, 2025, 01:40 PM
7 hrs ago

the economy, foreign policy and other things that Trump broke in his first term. The NORM for Democrats is to do just that.

What social media comments did Democrats take down. Yes, I know the accusations. I know both the Obama and Biden administration told social media companies to develop ways to control wide spread CT and lies. That is NOT the government demanding SM posts be taken down.

The Mouth

(3,395 posts)
13. Yes!!
Sat Sep 27, 2025, 01:25 PM
7 hrs ago

Censorship is always bad.
Everywhere, any time, in any context, of anything, for any reason.

Yes. ***LITERAL* incitement to riot and defamation of character should be punished, but ***EVERY*** opinion should be heard, every voice given at least a chance to reach all ears.

Any person, party, or ideology that does not agree deserves to be in the dustbin of history, forgotten.

All Voices, everywhere.

muriel_volestrangler

(104,824 posts)
15. The post in question said to punch trans women "in the balls"
Sat Sep 27, 2025, 02:13 PM
6 hrs ago
The first post, from his X feed, said: "If a trans-identified male is in a female-only space, he is committing a violent, abusive act. Make a scene, call the cops and if all else fails, punch him in the balls."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c07p7v2nn8mo

Incitement to violence, though not "riot".

highplainsdem

(58,341 posts)
10. Labour also alienated the anti-AI vote they should have had by pandering to the AI bros and ending
Fri Sep 26, 2025, 09:11 AM
Yesterday

up on the wrong side of protecting creatives' intellectual property. Really bad look to be on the wrong side of artists like Paul McCartney, Elton John and Jimmy Page.

I expect most if not all of those artists to vote Labour anyway. But it's made for some very bad headlines for the party that should be standing up for artists and all creatives against exploitation by AI companies.

róisín_dubh

(12,138 posts)
11. The media here is as complicit...
Fri Sep 26, 2025, 09:45 AM
Yesterday

In this bullshit as the US media is with Trump. They hang on every drop of spittle from that fucker Farage’s mouth. He likely will overplay his hand with immigration, though, because no one wants to see long term residents and Skilled Workers rounded up and deported as he suggested he’d do the other day- maybe his diehard fuckwits from Clacton. But hey, that may sink into the North Sea soon enough.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Nigel Farage's Reform on ...