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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNigel Farage's Reform on brink of outright majority at next election, major new poll says. Disastrous polling for Labour
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-uk-nigel-farage-keir-starmer-polling-b2834138.html
Nigel Farage is on track to become Britains next prime minister, with a major new poll showing the party is close to having enough support to form a majority government if an election were held today.
The seat-by-seat YouGov poll, the second such poll since the election, indicates the party has extended its lead over Labour, significantly increasing Mr Farages chances of entering Downing Street in 2029.
It suggests Reform would increase its MPs from just five to 311, making it the largest party in a hung parliament and just 15 seats short of the 326 needed for an outright majority. In June, the last time YouGov conducted a seat-by-seat poll, it put Reform on track to have 271 MPs.
The multi-level regression and post-stratification poll (MRP) showed Labour would lose 267 of the seats it won in 2024, putting the party on just 144 MPs. This is down from the 178 MPs YouGov predicted they would win in their last MRP poll.
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YouGov MRP shows a Reform UK government a near-certainty if an election were held tomorrow
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/53059-yougov-mrp-shows-a-reform-uk-government-a-near-certainty-if-an-election-were-held-tomorrow

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synni
(555 posts)muriel_volestrangler
(104,824 posts)The kind of thing that caused Brexit, though those who say they'll voter Reform are stupid enough to not learn the lesson of Brexit - that believing Farage's ideas would be better rather than worse is a recipe for failure.
Which pretty much parallels the USA, and its second election of Trump.
muriel_volestrangler
(104,824 posts)who is a respected economist and political commentator (maybe the closest the UK has to Paul Krugman - but, you know, no Nobel):
It starts 16 minutes into the bulletin, with Chris Mason, Political Editor of BBC News, interviewing the leader of the Liberal Democrat party, Ed Davey. The Liberal Democrats are having their party conference, so this is a chance for its leader to make a relatively rare appearance (see below) on the news, and perhaps explain what the Liberal Democrats policies are, or what their political aims are. But Chris Mason had other ideas.
Do you feel a moral duty to keep Nigel Farage out of power is his second question. His third is You say that Nigel Farage gets too much attention, but ... He holds up a little figurine of Farage that he bought at the conference.... You are obsessed with him, arent you? Frightened even. And so it continues, with pretty well every question from Mason being about Reform. Finally he takes on Daveys claim that the BBC is giving too much uncritical airtime to Farage, and accuses Davey of behaving like Donald Trump! Masons summing up at the end is about Nigel Farage.
This segment was then followed by the man himself, with Farage announcing a new policy to remove settled status from immigrants who have been in the UK for a number of years. Despite apparently discussing the Farage policy, the BBC failed to say clearly that there was no basis to his claim that this would save public money.
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/farage-and-bbc.html
("Party Political Broadcasts" are the short segments that public service broadcasters must give to major political parties every few months for them to use as they want (paid political ads being banned on British TV))
The BBC, and other TV news, try to justify their extensive Reform coverage by saying "yes, they may have very few MPs, but they're very strong in the polls". But this has become a self-fulfilling prophesy. If the coverage is "Reform is getting popular", then, in a time when no party has particularly strong positive support for "these are the polices we need", then discontented voters go to wherever they hear other discontented voters are going.
mwmisses4289
(2,316 posts)Putting one of the guys who did brexit back in power? One of the guys who trashed your standing in the E.U.? Are you guys barking mad?
newdeal2
(4,203 posts)Mainly a lot of anti immigrant feelings.
So yes, I think they and other European countries are about to go through some things.
Hugin
(36,900 posts)I figure one of the first targets is the NHS. Cant have that bad example lurking about.
Deminpenn
(17,015 posts)I understand the prime minister can call "snap" elections.
tanyev
(47,884 posts)😔
biocube
(140 posts)Your job is to fix the economy after right-wing parties messed it up, not arrest people for social media posts.
Fix The Stupid
(987 posts)Expect much pushback and attempts to hide your post...
This place does not like ugly truths.
Never used to be this way. You could have discussions about this, but we jumped the shark here a long time ago...
Good luck.
karynnj
(60,565 posts)the economy, foreign policy and other things that Trump broke in his first term. The NORM for Democrats is to do just that.
What social media comments did Democrats take down. Yes, I know the accusations. I know both the Obama and Biden administration told social media companies to develop ways to control wide spread CT and lies. That is NOT the government demanding SM posts be taken down.
Censorship is always bad.
Everywhere, any time, in any context, of anything, for any reason.
Yes. ***LITERAL* incitement to riot and defamation of character should be punished, but ***EVERY*** opinion should be heard, every voice given at least a chance to reach all ears.
Any person, party, or ideology that does not agree deserves to be in the dustbin of history, forgotten.
All Voices, everywhere.
muriel_volestrangler
(104,824 posts)https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c07p7v2nn8mo
Incitement to violence, though not "riot".
highplainsdem
(58,341 posts)up on the wrong side of protecting creatives' intellectual property. Really bad look to be on the wrong side of artists like Paul McCartney, Elton John and Jimmy Page.
I expect most if not all of those artists to vote Labour anyway. But it's made for some very bad headlines for the party that should be standing up for artists and all creatives against exploitation by AI companies.
róisín_dubh
(12,138 posts)In this bullshit as the US media is with Trump. They hang on every drop of spittle from that fucker Farages mouth. He likely will overplay his hand with immigration, though, because no one wants to see long term residents and Skilled Workers rounded up and deported as he suggested hed do the other day- maybe his diehard fuckwits from Clacton. But hey, that may sink into the North Sea soon enough.