The Trump administration is careening toward a government shutdown in its usual hyper-erratic fashion. Under the current Senate rulebook, government funding bills need 60 votes to overcome the inevitable filibuster, meaning at least seven Democrats are needed.

Here’s the situation: House Republicans have passed a party-line funding package, while Senate Democrats put up a counterproposal rolling back the cuts to Obamacare and Medicaid in the “Big Beautiful Bill.” Both failed. Then, as my colleague David Dayen explains, Trump first agreed to have a meeting with Democratic congressional leaders, then abruptly pulled out at the last minute, by way of a traditional incoherent wall of text posted on Truth Social. This made it crystal clear who is responsible for the shutdown: Donald Trump.

Now the Trump regime has a new tactic: Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought recently threatened that if the government shuts down, he will permanently lay off any of the affected workers he doesn’t approve of, rather than just temporarily furloughing them.

There’s just one problem: This threat makes no sense.

It follows that even if Trump agrees to some deal with Democrats, they should expect him to break his word for no other reason than he enjoys doing so. They should stick to their demand for major concessions, and some mechanism of enforcement stronger than trusting the world’s least trustworthy man. Until that time, the shutdown is entirely on Donald Trump and his party.