General Discussion

SunSeeker

(56,797 posts) Fri Aug 1, 2025, 01:12 AM Aug 1

More Americans now affiliate themselves with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party

More Americans now affiliate themselves with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party, marking the first time this has happened since January 2024, according to a Gallup poll released Thursday.

Gallup finds that in the second quarter of 2025, an average of 46% of Americans say they identified as a Democrat or a Democratic-leaning independent, compared with the 43% who say they are a Republican or Republican-leaning independent.

That's a change from the first quarter of the year, when an equal 45% of Americans identified with either party. And it's an even bigger shift from the fourth quarter of 2024—when last year’s presidential election took place—when 47% identified as Republicans.

"Shifts in party affiliation away from the ruling party have occurred in the first year of most recent presidential administrations. The current movement in party preferences is primarily driven by a greater share of political independents saying they lean toward the Democratic Party," Gallup said.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/7/31/2336081/-Americans-move-away-from-the-Republican-Party?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_9&pm_medium=web

27 replies

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More Americans now affiliate themselves with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party (Original Post) SunSeeker Aug 1 OP

As far as I know, there's always been more democrats than Republicans, getting them out to vote is another story Meadowoak Aug 1 #1

That was not always the case. It wasn't the case in November 2024. SunSeeker Aug 1 #2

Of the people who responded to the poll... JT45242 Aug 1 #3

Doesn't that "caveat" apply to every poll? What's your point? SunSeeker Aug 1 #4

pretty much a split down the middle tbh cadoman Aug 1 #6

Huh? I see sharp swings. Sadly, Nov 2024 was a sharp swing to the Rs. nt SunSeeker Aug 1 #7

I see the numbers consistently within two digits of 45%, and the margin of error is 2% cadoman Aug 1 #8

It's not consistly within 2%. And if you want to play with margin of error, then no graph makes sense. SunSeeker Aug 1 #10

thank you for correcting my thinking cadoman Aug 1 #14

This message was self-deleted by its author PeaceWave Aug 1 #5

Yup, the vengeful "sit out". oasis Aug 1 #9

But will they actually vote? sakabatou Aug 1 #11

No. We should all just take this good news as bad news and give up. SunSeeker Aug 1 #12

lol orleans Aug 1 #13

Damn... herding cats Aug 1 #27

There is about 5 percent of low info types that easily go back and forth JI7 Aug 1 #15

Flibberdigibbets maxsolomon Aug 1 #20

That's a good start, but until we address gerrymandering and the Electoral College * Oopsie Daisy Aug 1 #16

The Democrats have had the advantage in membership 16 of the past 20 years. patphil Aug 1 #17

The true split is 50/50 IbogaProject Aug 1 #18

It should be 90-10 but sadly...... wolfie001 Aug 1 #19

knr UTUSN Aug 1 #21

I really Hope This Helps Make Cha Aug 1 #22

Good.there is hope Demovictory9 Aug 1 #23

So 43% are still sick in the head. mdbl Aug 1 #24

Problem though is many of those are in the inner cities and the Republican gerrymandering makes it difficult to traction cstanleytech Aug 1 #25

Good news, but it doesn't mean a thing if they don't show up to vote. Katinfl Aug 1 #26

Meadowoak

(6,588 posts)

1. As far as I know, there's always been more democrats than Republicans, getting them out to vote is another story

Reply to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 01:17 AM

Aug 1

While Republicans will crawl through broken glass to get to the polls if they have to, and they vote every damn time.

SunSeeker

(56,797 posts)

2. That was not always the case. It wasn't the case in November 2024.

Reply to Meadowoak (Reply #1)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 01:22 AM

Aug 1

JT45242

(3,642 posts)

3. Of the people who responded to the poll...

Reply to SunSeeker (Reply #2)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 02:18 AM

Aug 1

That caveat is more important than ever.

SunSeeker

(56,797 posts)

4. Doesn't that "caveat" apply to every poll? What's your point?

Reply to JT45242 (Reply #3)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 02:22 AM

Aug 1

cadoman

(1,617 posts)

6. pretty much a split down the middle tbh

Reply to SunSeeker (Reply #2)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 02:46 AM

Aug 1

It's nice that it's the right direction but if you zoom out a bit this is pretty much a flatline statistic.

SunSeeker

(56,797 posts)

7. Huh? I see sharp swings. Sadly, Nov 2024 was a sharp swing to the Rs. nt

Reply to cadoman (Reply #6)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 02:50 AM

Aug 1

cadoman

(1,617 posts)

8. I see the numbers consistently within two digits of 45%, and the margin of error is 2%

Reply to SunSeeker (Reply #7)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 02:56 AM

Aug 1

So I dunno, it is about as close to a flatline as it can possibly get and still be worth polling.

What are you seeing that I'm not?

SunSeeker

(56,797 posts)

10. It's not consistly within 2%. And if you want to play with margin of error, then no graph makes sense.

Reply to cadoman (Reply #8)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 03:10 AM

Aug 1

It certainly is not a flat line. Even a swing of 2% is a sharp swing since it swings an election.

I really don't understand why you are denying this reality.

cadoman

(1,617 posts)

14. thank you for correcting my thinking

Reply to SunSeeker (Reply #10)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 10:53 AM

Aug 1

This swing is incredible and a sign of great progress!

Response to Meadowoak (Reply #1)

PeaceWave This message was self-deleted by its author.

oasis

(52,960 posts)

9. Yup, the vengeful "sit out".

Reply to PeaceWave (Reply #5)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 02:59 AM

Aug 1

sakabatou

(45,356 posts)

11. But will they actually vote?

Reply to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 03:16 AM

Aug 1

SunSeeker

(56,797 posts)

12. No. We should all just take this good news as bad news and give up.

Reply to sakabatou (Reply #11)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 03:25 AM

Aug 1

orleans

(36,439 posts)

13. lol

Reply to SunSeeker (Reply #12)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 04:00 AM

Aug 1

herding cats

(19,845 posts)

27. Damn...

Reply to SunSeeker (Reply #12)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 08:03 PM

Aug 1

You nailed that reply and made me laugh!

JI7

(92,713 posts)

15. There is about 5 percent of low info types that easily go back and forth

Reply to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 10:59 AM

Aug 1

They don't have strong views and don't read much and vote based on how they feel at the moment.

If you discuss politics with them they just repeat talking points they heard.

maxsolomon

(37,432 posts)

20. Flibberdigibbets

Reply to JI7 (Reply #15)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 01:16 PM

Aug 1

The fate of the nation hinges on the dumbest among us.

Oopsie Daisy

(6,670 posts)

16. That's a good start, but until we address gerrymandering and the Electoral College *

Reply to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 12:25 PM

Aug 1

* having a mere majority of voters who self-identify as Democrats is no guarantee to future success.

patphil

(8,311 posts)

17. The Democrats have had the advantage in membership 16 of the past 20 years.

Reply to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 12:30 PM

Aug 1

And the 4 years they didn't, it was even.
And we've had 8 years of Bush, 8 years of Obama, 4 years of Trump, 4 years of Biden, and are into the 2nd 4 year term for Trump.
Pretty even. It wouldn't make that much difference if both parties supported the Constitution and the rule of law, but Republicans no longer do so.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

The question now is if the American voters can step up to defend our country quickly enough to prevent it's demise.
It really depends on 3 things:
1) Can the Democrats get unified enough to take their numbers to the voting booth?
2) Who are the Independents going to vote for?
3) Are enough Republicans going to be sufficiently dissatisfied with their leadership to change their vote?

Of course there is one more question: How effective will the Republicans be in gerrymandering and voter suppression?

IbogaProject

(5,054 posts)

18. The true split is 50/50

Reply to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 12:47 PM

Aug 1

As we have seen with close elections. The GOP rely on low information voters and the uneven representation the Senate and the Electoral College give them.