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dalton99a

(88,734 posts)
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 12:06 AM Monday

Ukraine just rewrote the rules of war

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/06/01/ukraine-drone-attack-russia-bombers/

Ukraine just rewrote the rules of war
A drone attack damaged Russia’s bomber fleet — and exposed air base vulnerabilities worldwide.
By Max Boot
June 1, 2025 at 6:29 p.m. EDT

On Sunday morning, Dec. 7, 1941, the Imperial Japanese Navy rewrote the rules of warfare. Almost no one had imagined that the Japanese could sneak across an entire ocean to attack an “impregnable fortress,” as U.S. strategists had described Hawaii. Yet that is just what they did. Japanese aircraft launched from six aircraft carriers managed to destroy or damage 328 U.S. aircraft and 19 U.S. Navy ships, including eight battleships. The Pearl Harbor attack signaled the ascendance of aircraft carriers as the dominant force in naval warfare.

The Ukrainians rewrote the rules of warfare again on Sunday. The Russian high command must have been as shocked as the Americans were in 1941 when the Ukrainians carried out a surprise attack against five Russian air bases located far from the front — two of them thousands of miles away in the Russian Far North and Siberia. The Ukrainian intelligence service, known as the SBU, managed to sneak large numbers of drones deep inside Russia in wooden cabins transported by truck, then launch them by remote control.

President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Operation Spiderweb, as the Ukrainians are calling it, destroyed or disabled a third of the bombers Russia has been using to launch long-range cruise missiles against Ukraine. Among the Russian planes that were hit, reportedly, were Tu-95 and Tu-22 bombers and A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft, akin to the U.S. AWACs. (There is no independent confirmation yet of the damage.)

Little wonder that Russian military bloggers rushed to compare Sunday’s attack to the one on Pearl Harbor 84 years ago. The analogy is inapt in that, while the Pearl Harbor attack signaled the start of a new war, the airfield attack against Russia was simply another attempt by Ukrainians to defend themselves against the unprovoked war of aggression launched by Vladimir Putin in 2022. But the analogy might make sense in that both attacks could signal the obsolescence of once dominant weapons systems: battleships in 1941, manned aircraft today. Swarms of Ukrainian drones that probably cost tens of thousands of dollars to build in total might have inflicted $2 billion of damage on Russia’s most sophisticated aircraft.

In the process, the Ukrainians revealed a vulnerability that should give every general in the world sleepless nights. If the Ukrainians could sneak drones so close to major air bases in a police state such as Russia, what is to prevent the Chinese from doing the same with U.S. air bases? Or the Pakistanis with Indian air bases? Or the North Koreans with South Korean air bases?

Militaries that thought they had secured their air bases with electrified fences and guard posts will now have to reckon with the threat from the skies posed by cheap, ubiquitous drones that can be easily modified for military use. This will necessitate a massive investment in counter-drone systems. Money spent on conventional manned weapons systems increasingly looks to be as wasted as spending on the cavalry in the 1930s.

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39 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Ukraine just rewrote the rules of war (Original Post) dalton99a Monday OP
And still no news about what the drones in the US were Renew Deal Monday #1
were what? Looks like you didn't finish your reply, as written... ? Jack Valentino Monday #3
I assume they were referring to this. sheshe2 Monday #8
Mostly mis-identified piloted planes edhopper Monday #28
Shit! I didnt even think about that. johnnyfins Monday #4
I assume it was elons brother Hornedfrog2000 Monday #26
Mostly mis-identified edhopper Monday #27
Mostly ThreeNoSeep Monday #30
What quote? edhopper Monday #32
Context ThreeNoSeep 21 hrs ago #34
I see edhopper 19 hrs ago #37
The evidence does not support your conclusion ThreeNoSeep 11 hrs ago #38
That seems to be the governments conclusion edhopper 9 hrs ago #39
Interesting johnnyfins Monday #2
Shipping containers by the literal millions have entered our ports unexamined. rubbersole Monday #9
Except for it wont be done till 2045 Figarosmom Monday #11
Boot says -- albeit in a much more informed and sophisticated way -- exactly what I've thought today... Hekate Monday #5
Yup. sheshe2 Monday #10
I am rather a student of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, Jack Valentino Monday #6
As Spectacular As The US Failure Was modrepub Monday #21
The US spent billions securing commercial aircraft. usonian Monday #7
Not just planes... Shipwack Monday #12
Looking forward to: Vlad, in his dacha, with a drone strike. Hassler Monday #13
Hell, YES!!! BigmanPigman Monday #14
TY and Kick for Ukraine...💙💛 Cha Monday #15
We can stop buying $100 million F-35's now. James48 Monday #16
The US military has been working with drones for over 75 years Johnny2X2X 21 hrs ago #35
I have no military background but wouldn't antiaircraft guns Buddyzbuddy Monday #17
Land based CIWS systems located around the base perimeter Kaleva Monday #19
Thank you for that information. Buddyzbuddy Monday #23
A link to the Russian system Kaleva Monday #25
There have already been (likely) chinese drones k_buddy762 Monday #18
War Is Expensive modrepub Monday #20
I think drones are also a major threat for assassination attempts. mackdaddy Monday #22
Odd they (the ubiquitous they!) compared this to Pearl Harbor ThreeNoSeep Monday #24
The Pearl Harbor analogy is rather worrisome I-teach-kids Monday #29
Analogy fails because Russia had started formal hostilities. Nt BadgerKid Yesterday #33
Drones are already being flown around US military bases, so yeah, the worry is real. Baitball Blogger Monday #31
The days of the human military pilot are numbered madville 21 hrs ago #36

sheshe2

(92,211 posts)
8. I assume they were referring to this.
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 01:27 AM
Monday
Mysterious flying objects overhead. Concern and confusion. And calls for military intervention.


This isn’t the plot of “War of the Worlds,” but rather the result of numerous possible drone sightings in recent weeks. The flying objects have been spotted over residential neighborhoods, restricted sites and critical infrastructure.

The sightings have put intense pressure on federal agencies to provide more information about the aircraft, as officials have urged calm and emphasized there is no evidence suggesting the sightings pose a security threat.

The Biden administration has not identified “anything anomalous or any national security or public safety risks over the civilian airspace in New Jersey or other states in the Northeast,” White House National Security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Monday.

snip

Drones have been spotted near Picatinny Arsenal and over President-elect Donald Trump’s golf course in Bedminster, according to military officials and state lawmakers. The sightings prompted the Federal Aviation Administration to issue temporary flight restrictions over the properties.

“Several instances of unidentified drones entering the airspace” were also reported above Naval Weapons Station Earle, a US Navy base south of Middletown, although no direct threats were identified.



https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/15/us/drone-sightings-east-coast

........................................

Who knows who was messing with us then. They were a concern and then, poof, they were not. No real explanations.

Hornedfrog2000

(222 posts)
26. I assume it was elons brother
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 05:20 PM
Monday

Trumpy testing the waters to see. Im guessing they make a reappearance at a perfect time to terrorize the US population.

ThreeNoSeep

(211 posts)
34. Context
Tue Jun 3, 2025, 08:24 AM
21 hrs ago

"Mostly" is the quote. In the movie, Aliens, the hero Ripley is speaking to the little girl, Newt, as she explains that the alien monsters come out mostly at night. She looks with fear at at Ripley and repeats, "Mostly."

Sure, a lot of the silliness in reporting on this was misidentified authorized aircraft, but the word "mostly" in the report makes me wonder if there was something else going on with those drones and sightings. Not saying there was, but it makes me wonder.

edhopper

(36,064 posts)
37. I see
Tue Jun 3, 2025, 10:16 AM
19 hrs ago

There were some commercial drones. But no more than usual. As often the case with these, the more people start looking, the more they see. So more misidentified planes were reported.
Mostly, people don't pay attention to what is flying around.
In the end, another case of something from nothing.

ThreeNoSeep

(211 posts)
38. The evidence does not support your conclusion
Tue Jun 3, 2025, 06:35 PM
11 hrs ago

Granted, you could be right that every one of these is a plane misidentified as a commercial drone. However, you make a few unjustified assumptions such as the government knows the number of commercial drones in the night sky at any given time and at any given lat/long, you imply none of the drones were military by simply not mentioning that possibility, and you adopt the undefined phrase "no more than usual". How many are there, usually?
Other knowledgeable people come to a different conclusion as well.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-capability-to-handle-drones-60-minutes/
"Officials in Washington have underestimated the threat posed by drones in U.S. airspace, despite several cases of mysterious drone swarms over sensitive military sites, warned Glen VanHerck, the former joint commander of North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command."
Not saying it was foreign military, nor aliens. But it seems unlikely the strong response from military and law enforcement was just because of misidentified planes.

rubbersole

(9,888 posts)
9. Shipping containers by the literal millions have entered our ports unexamined.
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 01:40 AM
Monday

The idea nukes would be delivered by ICBMs is not rational. Too expensive and detectable. I wouldn't be surprised if we're doing something similar to bad actors. It would be disappointing if we weren't.

Figarosmom

(6,011 posts)
11. Except for it wont be done till 2045
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 01:46 AM
Monday

Which means it'll likely be obsolete. Plus trump thinks stealth means the planes are really invisible, so think what he thinks the dome is. He could be easy scammed on any plans he is shown by anyone he thinks is smart. And we know he doesn't trust advisors unless again he thinks they are smart and we see who surrounds him as advisors now.

Besides if a drone is already inside the area to protect it won't do any good. Drones can fly low enough not to be sensed.

Hekate

(97,876 posts)
5. Boot says -- albeit in a much more informed and sophisticated way -- exactly what I've thought today...
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 12:20 AM
Monday

I felt a shift in the balance of power. I felt an irrevocable change in the means of war.

💙💛🕸️💙💛

sheshe2

(92,211 posts)
10. Yup.
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 01:42 AM
Monday

I also read tonight that the attack was planned in total secrecy by Ukraine in a building right next to the FSB.

FSB:

The Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation[a] (FSB) is the principal security agency of Russia and the main successor agency to the Soviet Union's KGB; its immediate predecessor was the Federal Counterintelligence Service (FSK), which was reorganized into the FSB in 1995. The three major structural successor components of the former KGB that remain administratively independent of the FSB are the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), the Federal Protective Service (FSO), and the Main Directorate of Special Programs of the President of the Russian Federation (GUSP).


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Security_Service#:~:text=In%201995%2C%20the%20FSK%20was,Yeltsin%20on%2023%20June%201995.

Ukraine pulled this off brilliantly.

Slava Ukraini

Jack Valentino

(2,160 posts)
6. I am rather a student of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor,
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 12:30 AM
Monday

as well as much of the rest of World War II,
and have gamed out scenarios of that attack, and the whole war...


We Americans had good reason to discount the probability of any attack on Hawaii,
because of the distance from Japan, and the fuel it would take
for any Japanese attack fleet to get there, and be able to make it back home----
(I presume that was their assumption, although I've never read any documentation of such--
simply, they thought Hawaii was safe from any possible Japanese attack, that is, the majority
of the military.... there were a few alarmed dissenters, but they couldn't get that message through)


While OTOH, the Japanese fleet, to be able to make this attack on Hawaii and return
from this attack which they had been planning all through the year of 1941,
were storing extra fuel on all of their ships in 5-gallon cans, in any space that was available
(as well as on fuel tankers accompanying the attack fleet).

On their return home, some of the Japanese aircraft carriers broke away
and participated in the Japanese siege of Wake Island...
(When the Americans on Wake realized that they were finally being attacked by carrier planes,
they thought their time was just about gone--- they were forced to surrender just before Christmas 1941.)


The Ukranian drone attack here was absolutely brilliant!
No idea how they managed to truck all those drones so close to their targets,
but obviously Russian security was even more faulty than that of the Americans in December 1941!





modrepub

(3,850 posts)
21. As Spectacular As The US Failure Was
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 11:32 AM
Monday

The Japanese failure to take Hawaii (or destroy the US aircraft carriers) was even bigger and eventually contributed to their defeat.

The loss of Hawaii, Guam and the Philippines would have pretty much eliminated the US from the Pacific. The US carriers being out at sea during the Japanese attack probably quickened Japan’s defeat To be honest, neither side really recognized how important aircraft carriers would be in the Pacific.

usonian

(17,999 posts)
7. The US spent billions securing commercial aircraft.
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 12:33 AM
Monday

Attackers can just buy their own planes.

Defense is gutted since it was decided thet DEI is the enemy and not world powers: "We're on great terms"

Connect the dots.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100220295160

Shipwack

(2,696 posts)
12. Not just planes...
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 02:03 AM
Monday

Though no one wants to admit it, surface ships* have been highly vulnerable for decades. The only reason they’ve been able to survive so far is that for the most part they don’t bring vessels within range of an adversary’s anti-ship weapons**. The enemies fought didn’t have the long range missile tech because they couldn’t afford it and/didn’t have the tech base to build/maintain them. Ships aren’t even armored any more because they decided to trade protection for speed***.

Now a swarm of cheap aerial delivery vehicles can overwhelm ship defenses. It’ll only get worse when they use the lessons learned to build submersible unmanned vehicles. Unmanned surface ships already exist…

Nothing will be done until we get a bloody nose. Strategic planners are always ready to fight the previous war (see Maginot Line, Spanish Armada, and the operation to rescue the Iranian hostages for examples).

*Submarines at sea are safe-ish for the moment, but their days are also numbered.

**You think people would have picked up on this during the Faukland (or Malvinas) Island war, when the British ships Hermes and Invincible were heavily damaged by Argentinian anti-ship missiles (though stupid operational practices by the Brits contributed). The Brits almost lost their one carrier to an undetected Argentinian submarine, but the sub suffered a malfunction that prevented torpedo fire.
***Look up photos of the USS Stark after a rowboat of explosives was detonated alongside her.

BigmanPigman

(53,078 posts)
14. Hell, YES!!!
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 02:21 AM
Monday

Last edited Mon Jun 2, 2025, 02:52 AM - Edit history (1)

I was sort of hoping Putin would bet pissed off at tRump and have him fall out of a window and his big, beautiful birthday parade on June 14th would be his funeral procession but Putin hit by a drone also makes me smile!

I just watched a very good video about this. It was very clear and even I was able to understand it...

?si=RoKMSNVCs6kjyWDT

James48

(4,836 posts)
16. We can stop buying $100 million F-35's now.
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 03:04 AM
Monday

Redirect that money to drone, and anti-drone manufacturing.

It’s a whole new industry that is going to need hundreds of thousands
Of $2000 drones, instead of $100 million manned aircraft.

Johnny2X2X

(22,915 posts)
35. The US military has been working with drones for over 75 years
Tue Jun 3, 2025, 08:45 AM
21 hrs ago

We had drones that could reach Mach 5 in the 1950s. We've had drone swarms for quite some time too.

Safe to say that the last few decades the US military has been devoting a ton of time and resources to drone defense.

What was so stunning about this drone attack was that it was launched from inside Russia. Short of autonomous drones to defend this type of attack in every major city, I just don't know how we could stop a drone attack launched near the targets from our own airspace. I am sure they're working on things like response time to combat these things, but it's pretty unstoppable right now IMO.

Buddyzbuddy

(937 posts)
17. I have no military background but wouldn't antiaircraft guns
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 03:09 AM
Monday

much like those on naval ships go a long way to defend our warplanes on the ground. I don't mean to make it sound so simplistic but that's my way of finding the quickest solution when I see a problem.

Just a thought. Go ahead vets, fire away.

Something just occurred to me, friendly fire.
Where would shells not hitting their targets land? Not to mention other commercial flights and tall buildings. Did I just answer my own question about why we wouldn't use that as a defense? See I knew it was too simple.

Kaleva

(39,434 posts)
19. Land based CIWS systems located around the base perimeter
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 08:49 AM
Monday

They fire 20mm shells at a rate of 3000 rounds per minute. They can be set to auto mode where they detect, track, and then fire upon any incoming target the system deems to be a threat.

k_buddy762

(476 posts)
18. There have already been (likely) chinese drones
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 08:05 AM
Monday

close to and above US military bases, and other installations.

modrepub

(3,850 posts)
20. War Is Expensive
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 11:19 AM
Monday

Seems lost on most folks. Better to have stable relationships and economic integration than be constantly preparing (spending outrageous sums of money) for war or demonizing/dehumanizing other people.

Just my thoughts for what they’re worth.

mackdaddy

(1,774 posts)
22. I think drones are also a major threat for assassination attempts.
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 11:39 AM
Monday

I saw photos of security personnel with electronic jamming 'guns' at the last Pope's funeral where so many heads of states attended.
Problem is most electronic jamming does not work for fiber optic controlled drones that can have several miles of fiber to spool out. And a human FPV pilot precisely targeting and controlling the drones to an exact target. Many videos from Ukraine of these drones flying under netting and directly into a tank through an open hatch.

Areas like reviewing stands for a parade, or a motorcade, or helicopter landing area are all now 'soft' targets.

Quad-copter drones are Another one of those technologies that have far reaching results way beyond anything initially imagined.

ThreeNoSeep

(211 posts)
24. Odd they (the ubiquitous they!) compared this to Pearl Harbor
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 03:22 PM
Monday

They could have chosen any number of surprise attacks from history, (Trojan Horse, Doolittle Raid, or the Battle of Trenton) but they went with framing Ukraine as the aggressor nation in WWII allied with fascists. That was intentional, IMO.

I-teach-kids

(11 posts)
29. The Pearl Harbor analogy is rather worrisome
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 05:35 PM
Monday

As we all know, the war that started by bombing Pearl Harbor, ended with Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

This could be a very subtle bit of propaganda by Putin to draw that conclusion, and point out America used nuclear bombs in much the same situation…

madville

(7,720 posts)
36. The days of the human military pilot are numbered
Tue Jun 3, 2025, 08:56 AM
21 hrs ago

Unmanned drones and AI will make human fighter and bomber pilots all but obsolete in the next decade or two.

The huge financial, manufacturing and performance advantages will require it.

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