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Pototan

(2,758 posts)
Fri May 30, 2025, 10:32 PM May 30

Democrats at 27%: Reading the polls accurately

First off, I believe the polls They may not be 100% accurate, but they are in the ballpark. So, when Democrats are at 27& favorability, the question is why. To me, it's obvious. There are many Democrats who do not feel the Democrats in office are fighting Trump hard enough. Democrats may be disappointed, but they are not stupid.

The facts prove my point. Nearly every off-year election and special election has shown that Democrats overperform. We know that the only alternative to Trump is voting for Democrats. We are not stupid.

We will see if my theory is correct shortly. We will see in some scheduled, off year elections for Governor of Virginia and New Jersey, as well as some specials, if the Democrats continue to over perform, as we did in the early months of this year. I predict a win in Virginia of at least 10 points and in New Jersey by more than that.

If the Democrats' 27% approval rating was because Dems and Dem leaning Indies supported the Trump agenda, we would be getting killed in elections. That 27% figure is because the voters hate Trump more than Democrats in office do, but the voters know the only alternative to the Trump agenda is voting for Democrats.

48 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Democrats at 27%: Reading the polls accurately (Original Post) Pototan May 30 OP
According to Yougov's latest poll: everyonematters May 30 #1
I think you answered your own question Bluetus May 30 #11
In two years our democracy will be dead. choie May 30 #12
re: fighting hard TnDem May 31 #33
Or it's just slightly possible that people are stupid NoRethugFriends May 30 #2
Likely. OAITW r.2.0 May 30 #3
And I wonder how many of those people who have a feeling that Democrats think they are stupid elocs May 30 #5
If that's all it takes for them to vote against everyone's interest Keepthesoulalive May 30 #8
Trump calls his voters stupid right to their face -- no Democrats do. If so, when, who, what did they say? betsuni May 31 #13
More than slightly. Layzeebeaver May 31 #22
It all makes sense if you just resign yourself Cosmocat May 31 #32
I do not trust any poll creon May 30 #4
Lots here have that attitude but when polls are favorable towards Democrats elocs May 30 #6
Polls are bull Keepthesoulalive May 30 #9
I do not trust them creon May 31 #31
But as I've heard those at the top of political campaigns say, they read & pay attention to polls elocs May 31 #34
that is what matters creon May 31 #37
It's the truth, so it does matter. The truth is that campaigns pay attention to the polls they trust the most. n/t elocs May 31 #39
true creon Jun 1 #45
We have the driest powder on the seven seas. LuvLoogie May 30 #7
Hope that improves as midterms gear up. Silent Type May 30 #10
The poles are shit as usual. rickyhall May 31 #14
What do the Democrats stand for other than being anti-Trump? That's what I've heard people say who don't like Trump. Doodley May 31 #15
At some point, we have to run on something besides trump is a POS. True, but didn't work in 2016 or 2024. Silent Type May 31 #16
Their opinions of Democrats are shaped more by Trump and R/W media than Democrats themselves. Doodley May 31 #41
Ask them why they don't like the Democratic position on Taxes JI7 May 31 #17
That is my point. They don't know. To them, we aren't getting our message across, other than Trump is bad. Doodley May 31 #40
Most voters are not adults. hay rick May 31 #18
I think Senate Dems angrychair May 31 #19
My point. The voters you refer to Pototan May 31 #21
I don't disagree angrychair May 31 #25
I agree Pototan May 31 #30
This far ahead of an election, polls are used to support media contentions. lees1975 May 31 #20
Post removed Post removed May 31 #23
I hope you enjoyed your stay at DU Pototan May 31 #24
the 'not fighting hard enough' - is one of the more inane political analyses stopdiggin May 31 #26
The ones who came up with "not fighting hard enough" burst into giggles every time they betsuni May 31 #27
yeah ... I kind of get this throbbing pain ... roughly situated behind my left eyeball ? stopdiggin May 31 #28
I couldn't agree with you more Pototan May 31 #29
Because Democrats take the bait DenaliDemocrat May 31 #35
Yes, the embrace of deeply unpopular (outside this forum, in the real world) cultural issues has been problematic. BannonsLiver Jun 2 #48
The way to correct this problem... kentuck May 31 #36
All bdamomma May 31 #42
I agree with your last paragraph senseandsensibility May 31 #38
You Assume That People Oppose the Trump Neo Nazi Agenda TomCADem Jun 1 #43
"people who do not believe what they believe" Dave says Jun 1 #44
This is an Outdated Idea That Democrats Just Need a New Branding Strategy TomCADem Jun 2 #46
People's expectations of Dems to fight back vs. their not understanding how control of all 3 branches works JCMach1 Jun 2 #47

everyonematters

(3,879 posts)
1. According to Yougov's latest poll:
Fri May 30, 2025, 10:42 PM
May 30

The Democratic Party is at 38% overall with registered voters.

With Democrats, it is 80%

With independents it is 23%

Both parties have a problem with independents. We are a little worse.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_WokQXF7.pdf

Bluetus

(1,341 posts)
11. I think you answered your own question
Fri May 30, 2025, 11:48 PM
May 30

Last edited Sat May 31, 2025, 12:39 AM - Edit history (1)

... when you said, "Nearly every off-year election and special election has shown that Democrats overperform"

And THAT is exactly why 90% of the national Dems are intentionally NOT fighting. They figure they can simply lay low and let the pendulum swing their way the next time.

And this is EXACTLY why we need to be primarying every last one who thinks that way.

TnDem

(1,142 posts)
33. re: fighting hard
Sat May 31, 2025, 08:13 AM
May 31

We can fight to our heart's content, but ultimately more voters have to buy what we are selling...Right now, they don't.

 

elocs

(24,486 posts)
5. And I wonder how many of those people who have a feeling that Democrats think they are stupid
Fri May 30, 2025, 10:58 PM
May 30

as a consequence chose to vote for Trump? If you want people to vote for your candidate it's probably best to at least pretend that you do not feel condescending towards them.

Keepthesoulalive

(1,587 posts)
8. If that's all it takes for them to vote against everyone's interest
Fri May 30, 2025, 11:19 PM
May 30

That’s on them . Stop coddling these people. No one is calling them stupid but republicans. He loves the uneducated. You can kiss their asses and they will still vote for the leopard.

betsuni

(28,109 posts)
13. Trump calls his voters stupid right to their face -- no Democrats do. If so, when, who, what did they say?
Sat May 31, 2025, 12:16 AM
May 31

Are they talking about a sentence taken out of context that people cry about like babies for the rest of their lives because they won't look it up? They'll ruin their lives because they're so passionate and steadfast in their religious belief that Democrats are mean to them personally -- their family and community don't matter -- only their imaginary hurt feelings that they are told to have?

Carter, Clinton, Obama, Hillary, Biden, Harris: all wealthy upper class 1% out-of-touch coastal elites who have no idea what economic and social inequality is. Oh wait! Bullshit! But yeah, don't vote for Democrats because of some vague passive-aggressive propaganda you heard somewhere.

creon

(1,765 posts)
4. I do not trust any poll
Fri May 30, 2025, 10:44 PM
May 30

the best polls are plus or minus 3%.
the best.
but. it was what the media goes by.
sad

 

elocs

(24,486 posts)
6. Lots here have that attitude but when polls are favorable towards Democrats
Fri May 30, 2025, 11:01 PM
May 30

they get exalted from the rooftops as being prescient beyond measure.

Keepthesoulalive

(1,587 posts)
9. Polls are bull
Fri May 30, 2025, 11:21 PM
May 30

We are working to get out the vote. Sears is an uneducated nut. We’re not going for that.

 

elocs

(24,486 posts)
34. But as I've heard those at the top of political campaigns say, they read & pay attention to polls
Sat May 31, 2025, 08:41 AM
May 31

everyday. Plus, all polls are not created equal and so should not all be painted with a broad brush but viewed with discernment.

creon

(1,765 posts)
37. that is what matters
Sat May 31, 2025, 07:50 PM
May 31

it matters thqt the imprtsnt people believe
what ai think - a nobody -mdoes not matter

 

elocs

(24,486 posts)
39. It's the truth, so it does matter. The truth is that campaigns pay attention to the polls they trust the most. n/t
Sat May 31, 2025, 08:33 PM
May 31

LuvLoogie

(8,170 posts)
7. We have the driest powder on the seven seas.
Fri May 30, 2025, 11:06 PM
May 30

Our party leadership reminds me of Merrick Garland.

Doodley

(11,202 posts)
15. What do the Democrats stand for other than being anti-Trump? That's what I've heard people say who don't like Trump.
Sat May 31, 2025, 12:33 AM
May 31

We are letting Trump define Democrats, as we let Trump define Joe Biden and Hilary Clinton.

Silent Type

(10,554 posts)
16. At some point, we have to run on something besides trump is a POS. True, but didn't work in 2016 or 2024.
Sat May 31, 2025, 12:53 AM
May 31

Doodley

(11,202 posts)
41. Their opinions of Democrats are shaped more by Trump and R/W media than Democrats themselves.
Sat May 31, 2025, 10:02 PM
May 31

So my point is that Democrats need a plan to change that.

JI7

(92,363 posts)
17. Ask them why they don't like the Democratic position on Taxes
Sat May 31, 2025, 12:55 AM
May 31

health care , education etc. Ask them specifically what their problem is with the position. They will be exposed as being clueless . Most of their political news is just stupid memes .

Doodley

(11,202 posts)
40. That is my point. They don't know. To them, we aren't getting our message across, other than Trump is bad.
Sat May 31, 2025, 09:57 PM
May 31

hay rick

(8,912 posts)
18. Most voters are not adults.
Sat May 31, 2025, 01:04 AM
May 31

They are angry because Donald Trump pisses on their leg every day and the Democrats don't stop him.

angrychair

(10,916 posts)
19. I think Senate Dems
Sat May 31, 2025, 01:15 AM
May 31

Are a drag on the Party right now. There repeated votes that help Republicans move their agenda forward is seen as a negative.

Pototan

(2,758 posts)
21. My point. The voters you refer to
Sat May 31, 2025, 01:19 AM
May 31

have a negative opinion of Democrats because they don't fight Trump hard enough.

They will vote for Democrats in the elections I described. And they have been.

angrychair

(10,916 posts)
25. I don't disagree
Sat May 31, 2025, 01:46 AM
May 31

But Senate Democrats have lost a lot of trust with Democratic voters. We lost one Manchin but seem to have gained 9-12 more.

Pototan

(2,758 posts)
30. I agree
Sat May 31, 2025, 03:03 AM
May 31

However, what's the alternative?

Sure, we got rid of Manchin, but we gained a MAGA Republican. As bad as Manchin was, he still caucused with us.

lees1975

(6,716 posts)
20. This far ahead of an election, polls are used to support media contentions.
Sat May 31, 2025, 01:18 AM
May 31

Too many variables, for one thing. How did they ask the question about approval? Who did they ask? How big was the sample? When was the poll taken? Who did it? What's their bias?

I don't have any problem believing there's a problem with numbers for Democrats in Congress. If you asked me if I approve of the job they are doing in Congress, I would say no. That doesn't mean I will stay home from the next election, or vote for the other side. It just means that I am frustrated with the lack of initiative and concern that many of our politicians are showing, and their side of self-preservation that is showing badly.

If they got in the way of this jackass agenda the way Republicans messed up and got in the way of Obama's agenda in 2008, I'd be a lot happier. If they'd have done what they could have, with risk sure, but still within the possibilities, when they controlled both houses, we would not be having these discussions here now.. Democrats need to reform their party, get rid of the old school thinking and of tactics equated with bringing a knife to a gunfight, and start fighting back. Be bold, take risks, get rid of the "get in line and the reward is for endurance and paying party dues" crap that is preventing the kind of progressive thinking necessary to win elections, especially on the national scale.

Response to Pototan (Original post)

stopdiggin

(14,099 posts)
26. the 'not fighting hard enough' - is one of the more inane political analyses
Sat May 31, 2025, 02:07 AM
May 31

to come along in a while. While I don't doubt that a lot of the relatively politically naive buy into it - it completely ignores the facts on the ground, and that being that the Republican party currently has effective control of all three branches of government. That's just plain fact. And, in practical terms - that leaves the Ds with very few levers in which to pull. And all of the woulda', shoulda', coulda' in the world, doesn't get around the fact that they are essentially (and in very practical terms) boxed out of power.

But, by all means - let's go ahead and keep hammering the 'Democrats not fighting' card. It'll undoubtedly be a big winner for us!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

betsuni

(28,109 posts)
27. The ones who came up with "not fighting hard enough" burst into giggles every time they
Sat May 31, 2025, 02:15 AM
May 31

think about how many dumbasses repeat it seriously as if it means anything at all and isn't one of the stupidest things ever.

stopdiggin

(14,099 posts)
28. yeah ... I kind of get this throbbing pain ... roughly situated behind my left eyeball ?
Sat May 31, 2025, 02:24 AM
May 31

but I try to be .. somewhat diplomatic and at least semi-kind ...
I was taught that was how you dealt with the .. less advantaged.

Pototan

(2,758 posts)
29. I couldn't agree with you more
Sat May 31, 2025, 02:36 AM
May 31

unfortunately, many Democrats just feel that 'they're not fighting hard enough". I know politics and I know how the majority rules in both branches. And when you don't have the White House and you can't count on the Supreme Court, you're left with few, if any, options.

No matter how these Democratic leaners feel, they are still voting for Democrats in all the specials and odd year elections at greater numbers than expected. That's the point of the OP.

DenaliDemocrat

(1,660 posts)
35. Because Democrats take the bait
Sat May 31, 2025, 10:49 AM
May 31

And go all in on social policies that are easy to exploit in the media. We pander to a fight on Republicans on gays, guns, and God instead of sticking to economic policies, defense, health care.

We always play on their side of the field and we always lose.

BannonsLiver

(19,441 posts)
48. Yes, the embrace of deeply unpopular (outside this forum, in the real world) cultural issues has been problematic.
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 12:57 PM
Jun 2

Of course we’re supposed to live in denial or not talk about that here.

kentuck

(114,447 posts)
36. The way to correct this problem...
Sat May 31, 2025, 11:25 AM
May 31

...is to convince people that we are Americans before we are Democrats. Our nation is at risk and all Americans need to stand up.

TomCADem

(17,831 posts)
43. You Assume That People Oppose the Trump Neo Nazi Agenda
Sun Jun 1, 2025, 03:58 AM
Jun 1

The biggest mistake in your post is to assume that people support a progressive agenda over a racist, fascist, sexist one.

Most of the world does not enjoy Democratic freedoms. In the US, we have had slavery and rampant suppression of women and minorities. Oppression and tyranny are the general rule for most of the world and most of history.

Yet, many progressives assume that everyone believes what they do and make no effort to reach out to people who do not believe what they believe. Instead, they demand that their political leaders lean into an ever unpopular progressive agenda when the general populace has been groomed by social media to be more isolated and distrustful of the news, government and each other.

DU does not represent the views of most people. Go on Facebook, follow Fox News, MMA, Football, and Guns and see what you get on your feed and that is what the typical American voter is viewing as their reality, and unless progressives can somehow reach such people and convince them to be more compassionate and less cruel, asking Democrats to be more progressive will just further alienate them from an increasingly intolerant voter base.

Dave says

(5,193 posts)
44. "people who do not believe what they believe"
Sun Jun 1, 2025, 06:09 PM
Jun 1

Yet, if you poll these “people who do not believe what [we] believe” on individual issues, they mostly believe in and value these same issues. I think it’s more how we allow ourselves to be branded rather than the issues themselves. How, then, to breakthrough the 24/7 rightwing propaganda they swim in?

Or is it too late? We’ve become a failed state, like Russia, where the majority consume vodka and fight amongst themselves until they are numb, having lost all hope for a better future?

(Not pretending I know how, but it’s certainly not by the party moving to the right - that has proved a failing strategy for decades.)

TomCADem

(17,831 posts)
46. This is an Outdated Idea That Democrats Just Need a New Branding Strategy
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 09:28 AM
Jun 2

Less than 20 years ago this may have been true, since most Americans still got there news from traditional outlets. Even though news papers were dying, and a lot of independent outlets were being gobbled up, most people still relied on TV or written news. However, with both the left and the right attacking mainstream media, and the proliferation of social media and influencers, most people now get their information from social media sources believing that they are somehow less tainted, because you can now do your own research. Heck, look at DU and see how many people attack polls and the mainstream media. It is even worse on right wing sites with Trump always complaining about Fake News.

Thanks to the current information infrastructure, which rewards content that goes viral, the most popular social media posts will be tend to be the most provocative or divisive. Look at DU. Start of a post with the name of a well known progressive and discuss a quote where they attack other Democrats. I guarantee that it will start to trend with people debated and arguing. Sure, some of it may just be bots, but divisiveness will always gain traction.

The Republicans have embraced and leaned into this. Find a group to resent whether it be a minority group, the homeless, immigrants, LGBT, college graduates, public employees, and scapegoat them and thanks to the fragmented nature of social media, you can do this with impunity, because most people do not get their news from mainstream media or traditional journalists these days. Even better, when false stories circulate, people will blame traditional journalists for failing to publish the truth.

Thanks to our current information infrastructure Americans are isolated, insure, and resentful of their fellow Americans. Democrats will either need to lean into the hate to start winning elections the way Democrats did in the 1900’s, because progressives have lost the ability to communicate with non-progressives in the real world. At best, progressives can only vent in safe spaces like DU where we convince ourselves that most people believe what we believe and have not embraced detesting people who are not like themselves.

Look at Medicaid. We assume that this will be unpopular, but Republicans will just highlight how immigrants, disabled people, minorities, the poor, homeless, etc., are unjustly getting benefits for being lazy, and by appealing to the wide spread hate and isolation of Americans, this will probably be a winner.

If Democrats want to win with a progressive message, then they have to engage with people in the real world, rather just holing up in safe spaces like DU. We need to put down the cell phone and interact with people IRL. But this is hard. So, perhaps we will just stick to venting on DU.

JCMach1

(28,822 posts)
47. People's expectations of Dems to fight back vs. their not understanding how control of all 3 branches works
Mon Jun 2, 2025, 10:43 AM
Jun 2

That's how we get to 27%.

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