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fujiyamasan

(78 posts)
Wed Apr 30, 2025, 03:40 AM Wednesday

senate pickup opportunities 2026 aside from Maine and NC?

Here’s a link to the 2026 senate map.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections

What do you all think? Any realistic possibilities outside of those two states? Looks like a tough map overall.

“ There are two seats being defended by Democrats in states won by Donald Trump in 2024 (in both cases, by less than three percentage points): Michigan, where incumbent Gary Peters will not be running for re-election; and Georgia, where the incumbent is Jon Ossoff. Michigan elected Democrat Elissa Slotkin to the Senate in 2024 by 0.3 points; Georgia did not have a Senate election in 2024, although in the most recent Senate election in 2022, Democrat Raphael Warnock won by 3 points in a runoff.[1]
There are five incumbent Democratic senators that represent states won by Kamala Harris by single-digit margins in 2024: New Hampshire's Jeanne Shaheen, Minnesota's Tina Smith, Virginia's Mark Warner, New Jersey's Cory Booker, and New Mexico's Ben Ray Luján. Shaheen and Smith will not be running for re-election.
There is one seat with a Republican incumbent in the state of Maine, which was largely carried by Kamala Harris (Harris won 3 of 4 electoral votes in Maine's semi-proportional system). That seat belongs to Senator Susan Collins who was reelected to a fifth term in 2020. The other Maine Senator, Angus King, an independent who caucuses with Senate Democrats, was reelected by 17 points in 2024[needs context]. One Republican, Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, is up for re-election in a state won by Trump by a single-digit margin. Tillis beat the last Democrat to win a Senate race in North Carolina, Kay Hagan, in 2014.
This map is considered unfavorable to Democrats, especially due to the fact that 4 Democratic incumbents are retiring. However, the map for 2026 is not considered to be as unfavorable as the map for 2024. Democrats are defending 13 seats, while Republicans are defending 22 seats. However, the makeup of the seats up for re-election mean that Republicans remain heavily favored to retain the Senate majority.[2]”

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senate pickup opportunities 2026 aside from Maine and NC? (Original Post) fujiyamasan Wednesday OP
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